We're about 12-13 months away from a long term economic decline.

[Yavin4]

I may be doom and gloom and maybe I am wrong, but I don't think so. Around this time next year, or a little afterwards, we will be in a prolonged economic downturn the likes we haven't seen since The Great Depression. People forget that the financial collapse of 2008 happened at the end of Bush's term, and we got Obama soon thereafter to right the ship right away. Our timing this time around won't be so lucky. The downturn will happen in the middle of Trump's term. There won't be a Democratic savior president until 2029.

I don't say this to scare you. I'm saying this to prepare you.

[Irish_Dem]

1. Do you think we have a year of somewhat a normal economy?

Before housing prices go way down, retirement accounts crash, etc.

[Yavin4]

8. We'll be on Biden's economy through Aug-Sept of 2025.

After that, it will be Trump's.

[Irish_Dem]

10. Thank you very much.

I am making some plans and this information is very helpful.

It gives me just about the exact time I need to make the changes.

[Jk23]

18. The cost of housing will probably go up.

Not down. Less immigrants to build them and more expensive materials.

[Irish_Dem]

19. Yes definitely for new housing.

Housing prices for existing homes have been dropping in some areas.

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. If that is the case, we should do well in the midterms. Nt

[Yavin4]

9. Trump will need a major distraction in 2026 to save Republicans in congress.

He'll need something big for Fox News to fixate on 24/7 instead of a dying economy. My guess is that it will be a war with Iran.

[WarGamer]

20. Disagree...

He's got July 4, 2026 the 250th Anniversary... and latest news saying Iran wants to reconcile with Trump...

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/iranian-official-reportedly-met-with-elon-musk-in-an-apparent-effort-ease-tensions-with-trump

Iranian official reportedly met with Elon Musk in an apparent effort ease tensions with Trump

WASHINGTON (AP) — Iran successfully sought a meeting with Elon Musk, according to a U.S. official, one in a series of steps that appeared aimed at easing tensions with President-elect Donald Trump.

Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani met with Musk — a Trump ally named this week to advise his administration on ways to cut the federal government — on Monday in New York, according to a U.S. official briefed on the meeting by a foreign colleague.

[Yavin4]

21. He needs something bigger than that.

People hurting economically spells doom for Republicans in the fall unless they can distract the public. Domestic issues won't work since Republicans are in complete control. So, it has to be war with someone some where. They need to give Fox something to cover other than the economy.

[roamer65]

41. Nutanyahoo will do all he can to kill it.

He wants war with Iran.

[SWBTATTReg]

3. Already preparing. Starting to cut back on big expenses/big ticket items (not that I really have any now), and

am starting to restock up too, on durable goods for the kitchen. House and cars are paid for. Hunkering down for the long haul. Hoping that what few reps we have in Congress will still bring something of reasonableness to Congress still, after repugs take it over.

[Wuddles440]

4. And it will probably occur a lot sooner...

in certain regions. For instance, the purging of federal agencies and staff will decimate the economy not only of D.C, but critical sections of Maryland and Virginia as well.

[Wiz Imp]

5. I think it will happen even sooner than that

I predict most if not all economic indicators will be negative by the middle of 2025 at the latest.

[radius777]

33. Agree, Trumpism is terrible business.

Trump is emboldened compared to his first time where he was largely controlled by establishment Republicans. Trump's brand of right wing populism is inflationary and destabilizing to the global economic system. Trump has implied Taiwan (biggest producer of computer chips of which our tech industry is reliant) won't be protected. Trump is rabidly anti-China, which is still largely the world's factory where many low cost goods that consumers and businesses rely on come from. Trump is pro-Putin, who wants to bring down the Western led global order. Basically, Trump is terrible for business and many on Wall St etc who thought he'd be great are going to find out.

[Walleye]

6. Putin will be delighted

[bucolic_frolic]

7. Agree, but think it will happen sooner

Recession by March 2025. This will be something new, a panic contraction. Everyone is trying to do one thing - improve their financial picture by reducing spending. A hunkered down lifestyle is what's needed going forward.

[roamer65]

42. This ☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️

[elleng]

11. 'Thanks.'

You are probably correct; happens every 4-8 years; they mess up, we clean up.

Hoping my daughters and grands can 'survive;' I'll live for a 'few' more. (Have life insurance for THEM; hoping it'll help. Sad they and 'kids' not likely to do traveling I've done; THANKS DAD!!!)

[uponit7771]

12. THIS !!! Great time to sit in bonds, I'm at the age I can miss a 10% up vs take a 10% dip but at 5% bond returns I'd can

... sit out the mess and get some gain.

[LonePirate]

13. He can activate the tariffs and start the deportations on January 20. We'll feel the effects within a few weeks.

The decline begins on inauguration day. We'll be able to observe it by springtime at the latest.

[Earthrise]

14. I've heard Norm Ormstein estimate the collapse would being within 3-6 months. (nt)

[Yavin4]

15. I can see that.

Depends heavily on his tariff plans.

[Earthrise]

17. Tariffs and also undocumented laborers return to their countries to avoid being violently removed?

If literally no one harvests and processes produce stores throughout the nation will be depleted within a few weeks and/or we’ll be paying $7 for a head of lettuce, which is currently less than $2 in my area.

[Jspur]

16. I agree with you that there will be an economic crisis during Trump's

Last edited Tue Nov 19, 2024, 07:45 PM - Edit history (1)

presidency but it's hard to pinpoint when it will happen. I remember thinking way back when Bush was elected in 2000 we would have an economic crisis with that idiot in charge but somehow, he was able to delay it from happening until the end of his second term.

I wonder if Trump will be able to delay an economic crisis for as long as Bush Jr did or will it have happened immediately within the first year or two of his presidency.

[Yavin4]

22. Bush got zero interest rates after 9/11

which led to the housing boom and subsequent collapse. Today, rates are at 4% or so. The Fed won't lower them if inflation comes back due to tariffs.

[flamingdem]

23. I wonder who he'll put up for Treasury Secretary

That might matter..

[Yavin4]

24. Everybody is on pins and needles about this pick.

After the Gaetz pick, anything goes.

[uponit7771]

25. Big Bird, no really it'll be Big Bird... Who'll be his best pick

[Pinback]

29. (Kan)Ye would be on brand. (nt)

[dchill]

26. It will be basically immediate if the tariffs are going to happen.

[relayerbob]

27. This depends greatly on how fast they enact their plans

Johnson has said he wants the most aggressive first 100 days on record. the effects of potential tariffs is already starting to set in, and many layoffs are already starting, or are being warned. Deporting millions will cause large sectors of the economy to go dark very quickly, as housing construction, food and other industries see people fleeing ahead of the disaster. cutting funding to infrastructure projects, will also stop employment in those areas, to say nothing of widespread government layoffs. Tariffs will be felt nearly instantly given the usual proactive of dock-to-stock, won’t be much inventory sitting around un-taxed, and the companies will start proactively raising prices to compensate. I give it until June, unless something or someone intervene with the current plans and stupidity.

[crimycarny]

28. Agree! Make big purchases now.

That’s about the timeframe I’m assuming, though it could be sooner obviously. In my family’s case we need a new(er) car as all of our cars have over 200K miles. Told my husband we need to make this purchase soon. We’ve always planned on buying a used car, not new, but I predict used cars will go up as newer cars—already ridiculously high in price—will get even worse under Trump. Especially if he puts in his tariffs.

Same with appliances and other large purchases. If you have an old refrigerator, washer, dryer that will soon need replacing, get it sooner rather than later.

[roamer65]

39. Definitely 👍

[yellow dahlia]

30. Interesting discussion.

We are all trying to make good decisions.

To buy a house. Or not to buy? Who will be safe buying?

If Social Security and Medicare are hit...then what happens?

[roamer65]

40. Don't even consider a house until 2026 or 2027.

The real estate bubble is popping as we speak.

[Takket]

31. i'd say 6 months after he's sworn in

people are going to pull back on purchases and the mass deportations are going to suck billions out of the economy, and employers are going to be forced to lay off as a result.

[Freethinker65]

32. Retail sales are already slowing down at an upscale mall I work part time at,

[roamer65]

38. You haven't seen anything yet.

After the new year it will be dead.

[Eko]

34. It will start in December 2025.

Retail sales will have been slow for Oct and November.
Stock Markets will have been going down since summer.
Hours at many workplaces will have been reduced.
December will end with an economic whimper.
In Jan of 2026 most businesses and companies will start to contract.
Stocks start to fall at a greater rate.
Trump will have his tariffs and tax cuts.
Corp's and big businesses will have a huge tax cut and will use it to buy stocks of their companies instead of investing it because they know things are going to get tighter.
Feb 2026. Tarrifs are in full effect and the price of goods and inflation go up.
The winter planting season in Ca and other states will suffer due to reduced manpower
The summer planting season in the midwest and east coast will do the same.
The price of food will increase measurably.
After that?
Dump will nominate Kid Rock to fix it and thus the invention of Brawndo.
No, not really. I just dont want to go on with after that so I made a funny.
Or?
At this point I dont know. Could that happen? Kid Rock and Brawndo?
Fuck.
I fucking jinxed us.

[GreatGazoo]

35. The standard of living in the USA peaked in 1968

We have been in a prolonged decline ever since then.

The challenge is to put forth a positive vision of the future that includes the end of environmental degradation and an economy that is not dependent on "growth" / waste. The USA lags behind european countries in reducing the average number of work hours per week.

[VegasVet]

36. You say this based on what exactly?

What data have you analyzed to come up with this conclusion?

[Yavin4]

44. 1. Trump's economic and domestic agenda

2. Potential for the return of inflation
3. Federal interest rates hikes to curb inflation
4. Potential default on national debt due to not raising the debt ceiling
5. Curtailing of vital social programs like the ACA
6. Other - gross incompetent management of key govt functions which makes us vulnerable to negative events such as 9/11 and covid.

[roamer65]

37. March to May 2025.

It will start with the usual liquidity crisis. It will just get worse from there as we fully enter a severe and protracted deflationary recession.

[Initech]

43. Decline? These fucking idiots are going to usher in Great Depression 2.0: Depression Harder.

All so the greediest of the greedy can become even greedier. I called a couple of weeks ago that when the race to be the world's first trillionaire heats up, we're going to be seeing obscene levels of rat fuckery with the United States government. And it looks like that will happen sooner than later.

[bif]

45. I'm watching the market carefully...

Waiting to pull at least 1/3 of my money out of the stock market and put it into Money Market Funds.