Charles Lister's Syrian rundown

[Dennis Donovan]

Charles Lister is an expert on Syria

‪charleslister1.bsky.social‬ ‪
@charleslister1.bsky.social‬
1h
OK folks, here's what we know so far from #Syria - a 🧵:

#Aleppo city has fallen, along with the entire western countryside & much of the south too -- including the international airport & Kuweiris Airbase.

A few #Russia airstrikes, but little else.

‪charleslister1.bsky.social‬ ‪
@charleslister1.bsky.social‬
1h
Next-door in #Idlib, opposition fighters took control of #Saraqeb (cutting the M5 highway) & long-time revolutionary towns of Kafranbel, Maarat al-Numan & Khan Sheikhoun.

After that, they marched into #Hama, taking Morek & advancing all the way to #Hama city.

‪charleslister1.bsky.social‬ ‪
@charleslister1.bsky.social‬
1h
In northern #Aleppo, the #Turkey-backed SNA is probing into areas controlled jointly by #Assad's regime & the #SDF around Tel Rifat -- but efforts are underway to avoid any major conflict with the #SDF (which would distract from the regime fight elsewhere).

‪charleslister1.bsky.social‬ ‪
@charleslister1.bsky.social‬
1h
Rumors are emerging that the #SDF -- led by its Arab forces -- may be prepping an offensive on
#Assad regime positions in #Raqqa, while Arab #SDF units in Deir ez Zour are also mobilizing, taking multiple villages from regime control along the #Euphrates

‪charleslister1.bsky.social‬ ‪
@charleslister1.bsky.social‬
1h
Inspired by opposition gains in the north, former opposition factions in rural #Homs have captured Talbiseh & al-Rastan & are threatening to mark on the provincial capital.

Some clashes are reported in rural #Damascus -- in Zakia & surrounding rural areas.

‪charleslister1.bsky.social‬ ‪
@charleslister1.bsky.social‬
1h
Perhaps the most volatile dynamic is emerging in #Syria's southern province of #Daraa, the cradle of the revolution."

There, former opposition factions are clashing with regime forces in x6 towns & regime forces have been called to abandon their positions.

‪charleslister1.bsky.social‬ ‪
@charleslister1.bsky.social‬
1h
Amidst all of this, #Assad has just returned to #Damascus -- where he's spent hours calling the
#MiddleEast governments that normalized their ties with him in 2023 -- calling for their support in "countering terrorism."

A desperate move.

‪charleslister1.bsky.social‬ ‪
@charleslister1.bsky.social‬
1h
#Russia's response to developments has been pitiful. #Putin may initially have been playing hardball with #Assad (with whom he's been livid for months), but things swiftly got out of hand.

So: #Russia's overall military commander in #Syria just got sacked.

charleslister1.bsky.social
‪@charleslister1.bsky.social‬
Until now, the #HTS/opposition advance has faced no serious resistance, as pro-#Assad forces collapsed one after another.

If they try to move from #Hama to #Homs, that imbalance may shift. But what #Daraa closely -- escalation there would change the game.
November 30, 2024 at 2:43 PM

https://bsky.app/profile/charleslister1.bsky.social/post/3lc6u4xgc6u2k

[Igel]

1. Hezbollah had forces that fought for Assad.

I'm assuming they were all called back for the greater struggle.

Sort of an unintentional consequence of the S. Lebanon tussle, a weaker Assad. You know the folk in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are watching this closely and Hamas is hoping for help in the Galilee.

Have to wonder who's been helping Hayat Tahrir as-Sham to build up their equipment and train their men.