Former US Army statistician finds 2024 election win by Trump is off the charts improbable.

[magicarpet]

See the reasoning in the video below.
Between voter suppression and election fraud,.... are they making it impossible for Dems to ever win a national election again ?

If we sit back and do nothing about this - the answer is yes.

?si=zdxPzQZZt-zMFNQ-

[Horse with no Name]

1. I don't know how they did but they did

This is the last gasp from the white male to force us to live under their rule

[Doodley]

34. I'm a white male. Sorry for existing.

[WhiteTara]

44. Doodley, you have a great opportunity and challenge

as a white man. Your genus of our species has been the dominant force for several thousand years and it's now time for you to share power. You can do this with small steps. One, don't feel sorry for yourself that you no longer have the lion's share of power. Learn to acknowledge that others have great gifts that they (we) can share. Women and POC have made great contributions to society all over the world. Acknowledge that and lift them up.

When others are given freedom and power, you will grow and evolve, and what is life about if not growing and evolving? We are all in this together, and no one gets out alive.

I am a woman
I hold up half the sky
The world is seen
Through my eyes.

[Doodley]

47. Please don't patronize me or lecture me. I respect others, regardless of gender or skin color. Do you?

[WhiteTara]

49. Doodley, your poor poor pitiful me

prompted my reply. I'm certainly not patronizing you, and it was not meant as a lecture. ALL white men have this challenge and opportunity. When we women and POCs were demanding equal rights in the 60s and 70s, I realized that if we weren't free from the patriarchy, men could not be either. Good luck, friend.

[Doodley]

65. You know nothing about me other than I have said I am a white male. You have no idea what I have done to support women's

rights or the rights of people of color.

Let's look at some of the judgements you have passed on me, based on stereotypes.

Doodley, your poor poor pitiful me prompted my reply. I'm certainly not patronizing you
Do you understand what patronizing means? Or are you trolling me?

Your genus of our species has been the dominant force for several thousand years
I am not anymore responsible for the actions of males for thousands of years any more than you are. The fact that I am male does not mean I am guilty of anything. Or is my very existence your issue?

and it's now time for you to share power.
I have been ready and willing to share any power (you may perceive I have) since I was a child. Yes, that is pretty patronizing.

You can do this with small steps. One, don't feel sorry for yourself that you no longer have the lion's share of power.
Again, you are stereotyping. I am not a sexist or a racist, so I don't want any white dude power,.

Learn to acknowledge that others have great gifts that they (we) can share. Women and POC have made great contributions to society all over the world. Acknowledge that and lift them up.
I acknowledge that everyday. Why are you attacking a Democrat? That is a Democratic value.

[WhiteTara]

66. I'm not here to fight with you

Sorry that I triggered you. As you might have guessed, you triggered me.

I'm glad you are an enlightened white male, and I applaud your positive actions.

[Doodley]

67. I triggered you? Really? Bye.

[WhiteTara]

68. Your "Sorry for existing"

was definitely a trigger. And bye to you.

[albabe]

50. This part of your Conservative Stand-Up?

Always the poo widdew victim

[KayossZero]

71. Manufactured grievances sure do add to his argument!

[rainin]

76. Thought experiment: if white males were raptured, would the world be a better place? Sorry, but yes, it would.

Just because you can't help being part of a community of humans who have caused the destruction we're living through, doesn't mean it's not a reality that needs to be called out. I don't like when white women are called out, either, but, I don't take it personally. The cancer that is destroying the country we love is all white men. You have to take a breath and accept the truth.

[Doodley]

77. I don't accept stereotyping, including derogatory race or gender-based generalizations.

In addition, I am not part of a "community" of white men. Nor do I accept all white men should be branded as "THE white male to force us to live under their rule," to quote the post that I was responding to. I would be interested to see you explain how I am part of the cancer that you talk about or why my color or gender has anything to do with anything. Incidentally, most of the white men I know are not toxic and show love to others.

[MichMan]

80. Is that your opinion of Pete Buttigieg, Tim Walz, or Gavin Newsom ? A cancer destroying the country ?

What about all the Democratic members of congress or state governors? Them too?

[Doodley]

85. Thank you for saying so. There should be no place for hate speech that holds all white men accountable for

the actions of others who just happen to share the same race and gender.

[EdmondDantes_]

82. That's not how counterfactuals work

You could say the same thing about men in general as in our world men commit the vast majority of sexual crimes. But in a world without men, maybe physically stronger women or women with some other advantage do similar things since power tends to corrupt.

You could say the same thing about poor people since they are more likely to go to jail for crimes. If you eliminate them, crime drops. Except then you just move the next level up to become the poorest.

Some Republicans say the world would be better off if women couldn't vote again.

If I said that minorities are more likely to be in prison in the US because because of race, I'd rightfully be called a racist because we understand that it's not that simple.

I would argue that the cancer destroying the world isn't white men, it's power and money and a world competing for fewer resources as more wealth gets consolidated with blithering idiots like Musk and Thiel who believe their wealth makes them smarter/ better than everyone else in a neo-prosperity gospel. The Hutus managed to find a reason to slaughter the Tutsis, the Japanese committed horrific crimes against the Chinese and Korean people. The Chinese are doing it to Uygers. Not that white men (and I am one) don't have a long history of doing bad things, that's hardly unique to us and over the historical record it seems far more related to power and perceived differences than anything else.

[Doodley]

84. Very good points against the demonization of folks, based race, gender, or even geography. Thank you.

[mitch96]

38. " I don't know how they did but they did". I think musk had a hand in doing some computer wiz bang voodoo.

I don't know how but remember when tfg said "we have enough votes, you don't even have to vote this time...
Fookin scary..
m

[LiberalArkie]

45. The tabulation devices. Democrats had been so worried about touch screens that they totally forgot

about the point where all those little cards and sheets are counted.

Damn hard to modify all the voting machines as a person can look at the paper and check how their vote is counted.

However the machine that the paper is stuck into and counted has no visible way of seeing your vote.. "You have to trust it"

And then the link from the tabulators to the county clerks office is a another point..

But because the Democrats were accused of stealing the election from Trump, we did not want to give the appearance of doing the same thing.

At one of the hacker conferences a while back, a program showed how easy it can be done with the exactly same equipment in use during the election.

[rzemanfl]

2. When did 1932 become 'over 100 years ago?"

By that math, I am at least 84.

[sarisataka]

5. Such a glaring error makes one question their conclusions

If they cannot accurately calculate years, how good is their analysis of election data?

[rzemanfl]

40. That was my thought. n/t

[questionseverything]

52. lol at glaring error, you really had to deep dive to find something to "blast "

Guess what? 92 years is nearly a hundred years

The young man has given his name , let us see him ,so it’s crazy when nameless, faceless internet personas ridicule him over an off hand remark

[sarisataka]

54. 92 years is nearly 100 years

Not "over 100 years"

It seems we are in agreement fellow nameless, faceless internet persona

[questionseverything]

55. I guess he should of said, " a long time ago"

So you don’t find it odd that 88 counties that voted for Biden then all turned 4 years later and voted for trump?

Not even curious?

[sarisataka]

56. I find it improbable

Much like the improbability of being elected to non-consecutive Presidential terms.

[questionseverything]

57. But evidently not worth checking? Hand counting the votes?

[sarisataka]

58. If it wasn't for those polls

That people such as I were advising people to stop ignoring I would be more interested.

But since this election was no more of a surprise to me than the 2016 election.I don't think there is much to find

[questionseverything]

59. I'll play since it bumps the thread

So you knew ms harris would lose?

If you knew I would assume she knew too, so why did she waste precious time in Texas?

[sarisataka]

60. I did not know she would lose

But it was obvious that the election was tipping the wrong way and victory was not the forgone conclusion many wished.

To answer your question, you would have to ask.The harris campaign because I am not privy to their discussions.

[questionseverything]

61. Precisely how was it tipping the wrong way?

I’m in Illinois so I didn’t see signs that were so obvious to you

[sarisataka]

63. I am in Minnesota which is mostly blue

So it is easy to look around you and think all is well. It requires a broader view to see the problems.

First and most obvious was the polls that everyone dismissed because they were showing all the swing states turning towards trump. People simply declared them wrong because they didn't like what they showed.

Second was the focus of attention. After Trump's Bund rally in Madison Square Garden all conversation was about him. Harris was completely out of the spotlight. I remarked at the time, in the most critical phase of the campaign even DU was talking about him much more than our own candidate.

There were other warning signs such as the response to Gaza and indications our voters were less motivated than in 2020

[questionseverything]

64. It's hard not to talk about it when a candidate stops campaigning

Starts dancing instead of doing speeches and declares he has all the votes he needs and we will never have to vote again

When your opponent brags about cheating you, believe them

[questionseverything]

74. I went back and listened, he does not say "over a hundred years "

In an off hand manner he says, “ a hundred years ago”

That’s 3/4 the way through the presentation before you could find something to nit pick

If there’s anything left when the evil one finishes, I want people to know, democracy didn’t fail us , we failed democracy

Out of hurry or laziness we gave up our right to oversee the vote count, we let nameless, faceless corporations take over the vote count and accepted whatever result the machine spit out

But a young cybersecurity expert gave up his job to try and show us the deal and in his presentation wasn’t precise enough for you?

Honestly we probably deserve what we get

[Bettie]

41. Must be that new math

I keep hearing about!

[mtngirl47]

3. Trump projected about election interference for four years

And then he did it with the help of the billionaire class.

[malaise]

4. Rec

Doubting malaise has been doubting since Nov 5

[returnee]

86. returnee too

and actually much longer than that. I think hack-ability is why Dim Son pushed for electronic machines after 2000.

[malaise]

87. Gore was robbed

Yes

[returnee]

88. Yes...

…but with paper and gavels, not with zeros and ones.

[Silent Type]

6. We'll keep looking for an explanation other than the fact that voters didn't like Democratic message in Nov.

[mitch96]

39. True, they did not like what we were selling.. I think it's gonna come back and bite them in the ass..nt

[Botany]

7. 2 ways

The Front End: Stop people from voting by removing them from voting by challenging
their vote, stopping some mail in votes from being counted, and other rat fuckery.
Palast

The Back End: Having Musk and the GRU into the raw vote data @ the central tabulators.
Trump, Musk is very good with those vote counting computers. Musk to Joe Rogan
(allegedly). I had a special app that let me see the vote 4 hours early. Musk was also
compiling a tranche of voters that could be called in as needed to.

Btw now where was the pro choice vote in November 2024? That vote had been there
in every state red or blue after Roe was overturned but not in that election?

[yellow dahlia]

19. Right. Data and logic reinforce each other.

[ScratchCat]

8. If the election results are legit, you are asking me to believe the following:

- That a candidate who attempted to cheat in 2016 and 2020 didn't try this time.

- Ten million or more people who went to the polls in 2020 to keep Trump from being re-elected stayed home knowing he would be re-elected.

- Republicans signed up tens of millions of real, new voters between 2021 and 2024 despite what we witnessed between 2016 and 2021, including January 6th.

- The worlds richest man and tech guru, who was openly trying to interfere any way he could, didn't make sure Trump was going to win.

- That the Republicans lined up hundreds of attorneys to flood the court system with litigation only to not really file any significant lawsuits because they won unsuspectedly and there was not one iota of Democrat fraud.

- That, even though all pre and exit polls indicated a large number of Republicans voted for Harris, Trump won every swing State and these Republicans must have been lying.

- That the Harris campaign knew they were losing the entire time and was pushing bogus polling data.

That's too much to believe and much of it still makes no sense.

[ms liberty]

15. Swing state NC elected Democrats to the top offices, broke the Repuke supermajority in the legislature

And won' a Supreme Court seat that they're still fighting to steal. But NC went decisively for the Orange Man?

Sorry, I don't buy it. Neither does my husband, who I rely on to talk me down about these kind of things - and his opinion has affected mine, because he never just buys into anything.

[dchill]

20. I agree on all points - and I like your style!

[yellow dahlia]

22. Agreed. I had a similar of things that didn't make sense.

And a couple of months ago I posted with a thought that maybe the Ann Selzer poll wasn't wrong.
Here it is:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219832068

Bring all the data together and add all the logic and what do you get? Everytime.

[nattyice]

9. Starlink was used to relay the election results so I've heard

[Wiz Imp]

12. You heard wrong. Totally debunked.

https://www.factcheck.org/2024/11/musks-starlink-was-not-connected-to-vote-tabulation-contrary-to-online-claims/

https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-election-starlink-musk-steal-trump-38757341656d4f44243076d6356cb68b

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/nov/12/threads-posts/no-elon-musks-starlink-wasnt-used-to-rig-the-2024/

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/musk-starlink-2024-election/

https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2024/11/13/fact-check-was-elon-musks-starlink-used-to-rig-the-us-election

[reACTIONary]

13. The INTERNET was used to relay election results....

.... some internet connections go through Starlink. So what?

[phylny]

10. I've been saying this since November and have been

roundly ridiculed.

[yellow dahlia]

25. Indeed. Many of us on this forum who have questioned the legitimacy of the election

have been told to "get over it"..."we lost"...."move on".

[Bonx]

11. It's good to have a hobby

but election denial isn't generally a healthy pursuit. Lots of manufactured stress.

[gab13by13]

32. Even paranoid people have enemies.

[reACTIONary]

14. Jeeze, not this shit again...

.... Enough said.

[yellow dahlia]

16. There have been many of us who questioned the 2024 election "results"

right away.

Things didn't make sense immediately. To have such a sea change in the numbers from the 2020 election. To have Kamala do so much worse than Biden, made no sense. In 2020 when Biden won, there was immediate dancing in the streets. It made no sense to me that the sentiment of the country (toward the grifter) changed that much. It made no sense that he could win the popular vote in 2024, when he didn't even do so in 2016 when he "won" the election. The election results came in so quickly - many thought that unusual. I'm no statistician, it seemed hard to believe that he could win all seven swing states.

Wasn't it convenient that the grifter won just outside the margin that would have triggered an automatic recount.

The indications on this video are consistent with a group of other data that some of us have shared on this platform. Here it is.
https://www.thenumbersarewrong2024.com/

And then there's all the stuff the grifter said like, I don't need any more votes. Both he and muskRAT made reference to the tabulations muskRAT was active in.

Many of us were screaming for hand count paper ballots. We were frustrated that the Harris campaign wasn't doing so. I believe it is because they didn't want to look like the grifter.

It is painful to think (believe) the election was rigged as we watch the take over, and the destruction of our democracy, and the devastation to federal employees, and the collateral damage of knee-capping USAID and other agencies.

[birdographer]

23. "I don't need your votes"

This is a straight-out confession from a moron. He knew then that elmo had the reins of this election and would give it to them.

Just like with P2025, he came right and told us what he was going to do.

It’s too bad that computers are such newfangled devices that there is no way to dig into the coding and find anything amiss.

[groundloop]

18. These conspiracy theories do nobody any good unless someone can find absolute PROOF.

I have my own theories about this election, and they're not very complicated:

Many many Americans are stupid (backed up by the fact that 54% of adults in the US read at a 6th grade level or below).

Many Americans have a short memory and therefore forgot about the disasters from tRumps' first time occupying the White House, how he totally botched the Covid response, etc. etc.

Right wing media (including internet "influencers" ) were very persistent in telling us lies about how bad things were under Biden.

Democrats spent more time doing actual governing and improving the lives of Americans than they spent doing PR work (imo we need to get much better at PR).

The GQP did a superb job targeting Democratic areas in swing states to suppress votes by challenging voters, purging voter rolls, moving polling places at the last minute, and generally making it more difficult for people to vote in these areas. Then for good luck throw in a few well placed bomb threats on election day.

Elmo aided tRump immensely by taking over twitter and turning it into a right wing platform. Elmo also spread a ton of lies on facebook, such as the ones about the FAA not allowing relief supplies to get into the Carolinas after the hurricane.

Russian trolls and bots were hyper active on facebook.

Many male voters weren't going to vote for a woman, not even if she's well educated, well spoken, and highly qualified. Kamala absolutely kicked tRumps' ass in their debate, yet that didn't seem to change many minds.

[questionseverything]

48. The only way to have "proof " is to hand count the votes under full public view

Last edited Mon Feb 17, 2025, 07:13 PM - Edit history (1)

The top two federal races of every ballot should be hand counted on election night, precinct by precinct in full public view

It’s the only way ordinary citizens can oversee their elections

[Cosmocat]

81. I can't out of hand dismiss election tampering

But 100% agree w your points, and I felt this way BEFORE the election, and was calling it a coin toss.

End of the day, this country has increasingly indulged Republicans bs, well before DT became a thing 10 years ago.

People let this happen, as painfully obvious that it was headed this way.

[Butterflylady]

21. One doesn't spend over 250 million dollars not to get results they wanted.

F47 just sits there while his flunkie holds court and his kid wipes boogies on resolute desk. Come on people, does that sound like F47. No it doesn't. Oh yeah, the kid tells him he is not the president also.

[Andy823]

42. Exactly

trump is narcissist who thinks the world revolves around him. There is no way in hell he would put up with letting musk be in command unless musk has something on him.

trump has to put up with it because he knows musk would throw him under the bus in a heart beat!

[Quixote1818]

24. Not that impressed by this presentation but they should keep looking. nt

[yellow dahlia]

27. It aligns with other data.

https://www.thenumbersarewrong2024.com/

[questionseverything]

51. That 88 Biden counties switched to trump is a huge red flag

[Hope22]

26. All of that red and yet...

He ‘won’ by only 1.5%….@mazing! How is that possible.

[Hope22]

31. Even his little kid is smarter than that.

Between T and baby X this secret is not safe.

[magicarpet]

70. More Eloon"s little kid X yapping about Daady helping trDRUMP win the election.

Interview with Tucker Carlson.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100220042026

[Wiz Imp]

36. What the hell is skylink? If you mean starlink, what you read was 100% wrong.

See links in #12.

[Hope22]

29. This guy cracking a smiley smirk on introduction is all I need to see.

Win or lose a true election scientist would have lost the smirk months ago!

[questionseverything]

53. Good to see the "smile " police are active

[Hope22]

62. It's OK. Don't hurt yourself. 😉

[BoRaGard]

30. .

[AStern]

33. Sorry to jump on the conspiracy bandwagon but I don't think Trump won

I was in a very purple/leaning red area the day after the election and I saw not one smile on anyone's face. No MAGA smugness from those that may have voted for him. Nothing. Something was way off.

[Wiz Imp]

35. One of the worst arguments is that there is no way Trump could win all 7 swing states

and it hadn't happened since 1984. That is a total BS argument. Swing states change over time. Let's look at 2008. Wisconsin was in the middle of a string of 7 straight elections where they voted for the Democrat. Michigan & Pennsylvania were in the middle of strings of 6 straight. Georgia was in a string of 6 straight voting for the Republican and Arizona 5 straight. None of these states were swing states in 2008. Even North Carolina, which Obama won, shouldn't have been realistically considered a swing state. That was the only time in the past 12 elections that North Carolina voted for the Democrat. The only current swing state that was realistically a swing state in 2008 was Nevada. Other potential swing states in 2008 were Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, Colorado & Virginia. And guess what? Obama won every single one of them.

[standingtall]

43. I don't agree with the premise of this thread atleast until someone produces proof

but using the 08 Obama election isn't going to be very convincing for people who buy into this for a number of reasons. 1 Obama didn't win the poplar vote by just 1.5% like Trump, but by 7.2% so he won the poplar vote by almost 5 times the spread Trump did in 2024. 2 Headed into election day it was pretty clear Obama would win and there was only an inkling of doubt if the Country would vote for a black man.

3 Obama won every swing or potential swing State by at least 4 points or more. He won Nevada by about 13.5 points and New Mexico by 15 points. Unlike Trump who only won Georgia just by over 2 points,Michigan by just about 1.5 points,Pennsylvania by just under 2 points, and Wisconsin by just under a single point. The biggest spread Trump won any swing State by was Arizona at just under 6 points.

[Wiz Imp]

46. I don't care if people find it convincing or not, I'm just reporting the truth

About 2 weeks prior to the 2012 election, CNN identified 8 states which were considered "in play":

https://www.cnn.com/2012/10/11/politics/btn-swing-states/index.html

8: The number of swing, or battleground, states in play for the 2012 presidential election. They are: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Once again, Obama won all 8 of them.

The fact that all the swing states were close in 2024 while the national vote was close makes perfect sense. If the vote swung towards one party or the other late, why is it not believable that all of the close states would have swung in the same direction? That's far more believable to me than had Trump won only 4 or 5 of the 7.

[Mountainguy]

69. Swing states almost always move as a group.

because results are correlated.

Even times when a state doesn't swing to the winning side, you'll see movement in that direction, just not enough to flip it. In this case, all of the battlegrounds were close in 2020 and small swings pushed them all back over.

States like VA and MN swung toward R as well, just not enough to flip.

Nothing at all statistically impossible or even improbable on these results.


Also, I'm not sure what an Army Statistician is.

[Doodley]

37. I am not arguing for or against election cheating, but I know Trump would cheat if he could. But let me say that I live

in Georgia and we had TWELVE flyers promoting Trump, including "They tried to kill him" messages. I am not exagerating TWELVE! I collected them, counted them, and was infuriated by the lies. And they were all from Musk's American PAC. From the Kamala campaign, we got nothing. If you were a low-information voter and that is all you saw, you probably would vote Trump. This is enough to explain how Trump could have won, but I am open to the possibility of more nefarious means.

[Mr.Bee]

72. He cheats at golf

oh but he would never cheat in an national election that he is a candidate...
No, he would never do that.

[magicarpet]

73. Upstanding businessman too,..

.... highly successful,... no reason to cheat ,... devout Christian,... Tangerine Traitor Dirtbag.

[ck4829]

75. Kick

[MichMan]

78. If you look at past norms, it was the most unusual election of my lifetime

• Only once before has an incumbent sitting president withdrawn from re election (LBJ) and that was not that close to the election. In both cases, their sitting VP lost.

• There has only been one sitting VP (Bush in 1988) elected president since 1836 (VanBuren)

• Only once previously has a president been defeated in re election and then gone on to win a second term (Cleveland)

• Failed assassination attempt a few months before election

• Harris chosen without winning a primary

• A felon has never run for president

[Kid Berwyn]

79. The sitting back and doing nothing part...

…really does need to be addressed.

GOP screw over the nation. Every time.

DEMs fix the damage. As much as they can.

We need to make them that broke it, pay.

[ecstatic]

83. This is why you arrest and jail people who attempt coups

You don't give them the freedom to try again. That's the bottom line.

We were failed.

The man literally attempted to overthrow our country and steal the election just 4 years prior. It is NOT insane to question whether he actually succeeded in stealing it this time around.