Harris' momentum continues as she ties with Trump in these swing states

[sl8]

https://www.npr.org/2024/08/26/nx-s1-5088061/harris-trump-swing-states-electoral-map

3 min. audio, many charts & graphics at link.

Harris’ momentum continues as she ties with Trump in these swing states

AUGUST 26, 2024 5:05 AM ET
HEARD ON MORNING EDITION
Domenico Montanaro

The good news keeps coming for Vice President Harris.

She has now not only made up ground in public polls in the swing states in her campaign for president, but has now actually taken narrow leads in three critical states that would put her at just enough electoral votes to win the White House, according to polling averages.

To be clear, these leads are mostly within the surveys’ margins of error, and Democratic pollsters worry that polling error could overstate Harris’ strength. Their message is one that was heard from many speakers at the Democrats’ convention last week: this is a close race, and don’t become irrationally exuberant.

NPR’s analysis now has all seven of the most closely watched swing states as toss-ups, moving all of the Sun Belt states from Lean Republican previously. NPR’s analysis in this map is not based strictly on polling, but also on historical trends and conversations with campaigns and party strategists.

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[lees1975]

1. I certainly understand the caution.

Being careful is a great strategy. I think there is evidence to indicate that Trump's support is very likely being way overestimated, especially given what was a very weak performance by an unopposed candidate from the halfway point through the primaries, and I would not be surprised at all to see Harris carry all seven battleground states by anywhere from 2 to 8% depending on the state, including North Carolina, and toss in a couple of the other red states as well.

But I get it that we stick with polls and underestimation as a campaign strategy.