BTRTN '24 Election Snapshot #2: Harris Odds Improve Again; Update of Presidential, Senate, House, Governor Races
Born To Run The Numbers is back with its second comprehensive election "snapshot:" -- not a prediction, but a view of where the various races – presidential, Senate, House and Governor — stand at the current moment...
https://borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/08/26/btrtn-2024-election-snapshot-2-harris-odds-improve-again-complete-update-of-presidential-senate-house-governor-races/
Excerpts: "Presidential race: We have increased the odds of Kamala Harris winning the presidency from 50% to 53%, as her swing state polling continues to improve. All of the recent polling was pre-convention, so we await any sign of a “convention bounce” that would further enhance her lead...
"Senate races: Democrat incumbents in battleground races – and for those who are retiring, their potential Democratic successors – continue to do remarkably well in defending their seats thus far, with most holding significant leads. But it is a remarkably difficult 'map' for the Democrats to overcome to maintain control of the Senate – basically, a Trump win and a West Virginia flip (virtually a certainty) would give the Senate to the GOP. We have raised the likelihood that the Democrats will hold the Senate from 18% to 23%...
"House races. With this Snapshot we introduce our BTRTN House Model, which projects how many seats the Democrats will win (or lose) in an election cycle. The model uses as input such facts as which party is in control of the House (currently the GOP), whether it is a presidential election year or midterm elections, which year of office the president is in (this is Biden’s fourth year), how many seats each party currently has (222/213 favoring the GOP, including vacancies based on the prior office holder), and the generic ballot (currently tied at 46/46). The model currently shows the Democrats picking up +8 seats, which would be enough (narrowly) to take over control of the House (222/213 the other way)...
"Governor races. Back in 2022 there were 36 governor races; this year there are only 11, and we expect only three of them to be competitive (if that). We have changed the rating on only one of them." Click on URL for complete details.