Kamala Harris Will Be In Houston On Thursday - Is Texas In Play?

[Shell_Seas]

Why Texas Might Turn Blue in 2024.

https://www.lonestarleft.com/p/kamala-harris-will-be-in-houston



If you haven’t heard already, Kamala Harris will be in Houston on Thursday to speak at the teachers union convention. With only 104 days left until the November election, many people are asking, “With Kamala coming to Texas right now, does that mean Texas is in play?”

The short answer: Yes.

However, when discussing Texas’ fate and future, I almost always have someone say to me:

“Texas will never be blue.”

“Texas won’t be blue for generations.”

“They always say Texas will be blue, but it never is.”

And so on. However, the data tells us that Texas has moved left consistently since 2000 and will continue to do so.

[duncang]

1. Biden got 46.48% of the vote.

That did beat Obama’s 41 and 43%.

If the younger generation turns out it could be possible. But remember Texas has a recent history of trying to screw around with places to vote around colleges and democratic cities.

Another bonus this year is Colin Allred. I think he appeals to younger voters. He’s running against Cancun Cruz. I’ve seen several of his ads. I haven’t seen any Cruz ads.

[TwilightZone]

6. Yep, 46.5% and people still insist that Texas is a deep red state.

The legislature is GOP because Texas has been gerrymandered to death. Some of the cities are in half a dozen districts. The Austin metro is in seven or eight of them, depending on who's counting.

In reality, Texas is much closer to even politically, though there's still a small edge to the GOP. If we could fix the turnout problem on the left (see my response below), we'd be right there.

[samsingh]

2. i don't think Texas is in play, but some seats might be

[gab13by13]

3. Texas is in play, IMO

Overturning Roe had a disastrous effect in Texas and Kamala gives one mean campaign speech on women's rights.

Why can't Kamala pull Alred along on her coat tails? Cruz can be beat, would be significant. I hope that Democrats pump some money into Texas.

[Paladin]

4. Let Kamala speak about the state's clusterfuck hurricane response.

That'll move the "Texas in play" situation along, nicely.

[TwilightZone]

5. It's unlikely to be in play for a few reasons.

Mail-in voting is highly restricted: over 65, sick/disabled, out of the county for early voting and election day, giving birth within three weeks, or in jail. Everyone else votes in person.

Voter apathy and turnout are serious problems here in Texas. We're working on them, but they're a big challenge.

Texas is also a relatively young state, 3rd lowest median age in the country. Younger voters have lower turnout, of course.

Polls can be misleading for all of these reasons. "Likely voters" aren't as likely to vote as in most other states. The lower the turnout, the better it is for the GOP.

This article from 2018 is a good summary, and the circumstances haven't changed significantly since then, with the exception of further restrictions put in place by Abbott in 2020.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/23/texas-voter-turnout-electorate-explainer/