Four straight months with 350K+ job gains - NewsNation Prime

[Rhiannon12866]

372,000 jobs were created in the U.S. last month, marking the fourth straight month with more than 350,000 job gains. In the meantime, the unemployment rate is holding steady at 3.5 percent. Aired on 07/24/2022.

[patphil]

1. People are coming back into the labor force, after a long hiatus due to covid.

[Rhiannon12866]

2. And it seems like everywhere I go, supermarkets, convenience stores, gas stations, they're hiring!

[brer cat]

4. Where I live (in a very small town) the hiring signs have been up for

probably a year in most cases. These low paying jobs are not attracting workers. Maybe they need to rethink the wages and benefits. I recently ate at an Arby's that had a bold "Free College" on their "Now Hiring" sign. My older granddaughter works for Lowe's and they have tuition assistance and offer very flexible hours for workers who go to college.

[Rhiannon12866]

5. That sounds like the way to do it, tuition assistance for young workers

I live in a small town. mainly rural area, but we get a huge tourist influx this time of year. (Lake George). When I was in school, I had a summer job at the seasonal amusement park. Back then, it seemed like every kid/student in the area applied there. I got lucky, when I applied, they were desperate for a "Cinderella," I fit the description and got hired right away. But now? I'm told that they have to "import" workers - and last year they couldn't even open full time because there just weren't enough employees. They might attract more workers - even seasonally - if they offered some college help, since when I was there, that was the age range - students and retired folks. But we were lucky to get minimum wage.

[SunSeeker]

3. K & R

[progree]

6. Labor force participation rate: overall down from 2019, but for prime age, up slightly

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

# LFPR Prime age (25-54) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060

In June of the following years, in percent of the civilian non-institutionalized population age 16+:
2019 2020 2021 2022
62.9 61.4   61.6 62.2 LFPR
82.2 81.5   81.7 82.3 Prime age LFPR

They are somewhat noisy ziggy zaggy data series, but anyway. Some other deep dives I've been looking at is that LFPR is somewhat down for older folks (not surprising -- continuing boomer retirements, the youngest boomers are age 58, the oldest 76; but somewhat dismayingly for the "young old" as well, e.g. 55-65. As for younger than those, from what I've seen, we're at pre-pandemic levels of LFPR)

On one of the other points on the clip, the first quarter GDP drop of 1.6% (annualized) was also featured, and we get the first estimate of Q2 GDP on Thursday. Two quarters of negative GDP is a common "definition" of a recession, and the only one at least til the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) weighs in, which often takes a year or more, and is very unlikely before the midterms.

They are the official arbiters of calling recessions. I've heard them called "semi-official", but I don't know any entity that is considered more "official" in this regards, at least in terms of credibility and given that they have had that defacto role for many decades.

The 2nd estimate of Q2 GDP comes out in late August, the 3rd in late September. So if we don't like the first estimate, there is still hope.

5 full days in a row of stock market ahead.

[doc03]

7. I have lived through many recessions and this

is not a recession. Unemployment at 3.6% employers begging for workers. Every weekend lines at Steak Houses, people paying above asking price for vehicles and homes.

[progree]

8. The NBER calls a recession at the TOP of the economy --

Per the NBER ( http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html ), recessions (contractions) begin at the peak of the economy and end at the trough (bottom) of the economy. And expansions (recoveries) begin at the trough of the economy and end at the peak of the economy.

One can see the recessions (the gray bands) beginning at about the point that unemployment is lowest.
https://www.nber.org/research/business-cycle-dating

=======================================

As for why we're having GDP contraction (Q1 at -1.6% annualized), I guess supply chain disruptions, causing huge drops in productivity. This is from the latest BLS productivity report --

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 7.3 percent in the first quarter of 2022, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output decreased 2.3 percent and hours worked increased 5.4 percent. This is the largest decline in quarterly productivity since the third quarter of 1947, when the measure decreased 11.7 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.) From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 0.6 percent, reflecting a 4.2-percent increase in output that was outpaced by a 4.8-percent increase in hours worked. (See table A1.) This is the largest four-quarter decline since the fourth quarter of 1993, when the measure also declined 0.6 percent.

I'm hoping the explanation is supply-chain, which has been easing, and that it has been easing enough to make Q2 come out positive GDP-wise.

It is possible that a tight labor side can be part of the economic output reduction as well.

To me, it doesn't feel like labor force nirvana when wages / salaries are not keeping up with inflation. And my life savings and fixed-dollar annuity is rapidly eroding in purchasing power.

I got my first professional job in 1977, in the aftermath of 1973-74 recession when the unemployment rate was 7.5%, after many months of unemployment after graduation with an MSEE, so it's not my first rodeo, recession-wise. And I agree that the present situation isn't at all like any of these past recessions.