US Jobless Claims Rise Slightly But Remain Near Historic Lows

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Economics

US Jobless Claims Rise Slightly But Remain Near Historic Lows

By Augusta Saraiva
December 29, 2022, 1:33 PM UTC Updated on December 29, 2022, 1:36 PM UTC

Applications for US unemployment benefits rose last week, but remained near historic lows, underscoring the enduring resilience of the labor market despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to cool demand.

Initial unemployment claims increased by 9,000 to 225,000 in the week ended Dec. 24, Labor Department data showed Thursday. That was in line with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

{snip}

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. From the source:

https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/OPA/newsreleases/ui-claims/20222372.pdf

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

News Release

Connect with DOL at
https://blog.dol.gov

TRANSMISSION OF MATERIALS IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL
8:30 A.M. (Eastern) Thursday, December 29, 2022

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending December 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 225,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 216,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, a decrease of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 500 from 221,750 to 221,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending December 17, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 17 was 1,710,000, an increase of 41,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 3,000 from 1,672,000 to 1,669,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,679,500, an increase of 25,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 3,000 from 1,657,250 to 1,654,250.

UNADJUSTED DATA

{snip}

The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending December 10 was 1,619,728, an increase of 91,461 from the previous week. There were 2,177,372 weekly claims filed for benefits in all programs in the comparable week in 2021.

{snip the rest of the ten-page news release, until the end}

Weekly Claims Archives
Weekly Claims Data

U.S. Department of Labor news materials are accessible at http://www.dol.gov. The Department's Reasonable Accommodation Resource Center converts Departmental information and documents into alternative formats, which include Braille and large print. For alternative format requests, please contact the Department at [phone] (voice) or [phone] (federal relay).

U.S. Department of Labor
Employment and Training Administration
Washington, D.C. 20210
Release Number: USDL 22-2372-NAT

Program Contacts:
Kevin Stapleton: [phone]
Media Contact: [phone]

[peppertree]

2. The Fed, of course, is trying to change that

Quite a change from the days of the House of Orange - when Cheeto would merely have to grunt, and Jerry would bring rates down in a snap.

"Can I play my kazoo for thee, o master?"

"Away with thee, fool! My daughter *ahem* awaits!"

[progree]

3. Hmm, yes, what's interesting is that the fed funds rate peaked in the 1st half of 2019

and then the cutting began -- all well before the pandemic.

# Federal Funds Effective Rate - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

# Fed Funds Rate Lower Limit (since 12/15/08): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARL
# Fed Funds Rate Upper Limit (since 12/15/08): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU

# Effective Fed Funds rate (daily), and the target range: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr

[peppertree]

4. Sure. You'll recall that Trump openly arm-twisted him to cut rates - regardless of anything else

His Orangeness was, as you know, faced a tough re-election battle - even before Covid - and was convinced lower rates would guarantee his re-election.

At the time, I remember it being something of a scandal - since this country prides itself in the independence of its Federal Reserve (of course, that depends on who you ask).

Indeed - one of the things we chide other countries' central banks for, is their policy subordination to whoever happens to be president at the time.

Leave to Cheeto to import 3rd world central banking practices to the U.S. - like so many other things!

But enough of that. Happy New Year, Progree!

Your expertise and insights are always rewarding to read.

All the Best!

[progree]

5. I remembered the relentless pressure, but I had forgotten that Powell had actually knuckled under,

but he did. Well before the pandemic. While the unemployment rate was at the lowest it had been in decades.

And thanks for your kind remarks and your informative news and insights as well! As well as keeping us up to date on Argentina. We are so overly focused on the U.S. and U.K. economies at DU, so it's good to know how things are going elsewhere. And Happy New Year to you too!

I spent the first two hours or so of New Years Day thinking I had to reset the clocks, but I finally got that out of my head

[peppertree]

6. You're welcome. Never a dull moment down there.

In some ways, it's been an economic canary-in-the coal mine for the U.S.

The Bush derivatives disaster, for example, was a more sophisticated, much larger variant of Argentina's ruinous "financial bicycle" collapse in '81.

$30 billion or so in dollar debts taken on, largely to finance the dollarizing and offshoring of peso assets (by both local elites and foreign fly-by-nighters) - with the country left holding the bag.

(they had another such experience with Trump's pal Macri in 2016-18 - hence their current problems)

The biggest difference, really, is that we have a Fed that can absorb bad debts and other "toxic" assets - and with an almost limitless capacity to do so.

And Argentina (like most countries) doesn't.

So for all its imperfections and opaqueness - whenever I hear right-wingers bitch about the Fed (and boy, do they love to!), I remind them about that.

A blessing most countries simply don't have - not by a mile.