STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Wednesday, 4 January 2023

[Tansy_Gold]

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday, 4 January 2023

Previous SMW:
SMW for 3 January 2023 [/b




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 3 January 2023


Dow Jones 33,136.37 -10.88 (0.033%)
S&P 500 3,824.14 -15.36 (0.40%)
Nasdaq 10,386.98 -79.50 (0.76%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours:

Google Finance
MarketWatch
Bloomberg
Stocktwits

(click on links for latest updates)

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Currencies:













Gold & Silver:






Petroleum:

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DU Economics Group Contributor Megathreads:

Progree's Economic Statistics (with links!)
mahatmakanejeeves' Rail Safety Megathread
mahatmakanejeeves' Oil Train Safety Megathread

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Quote for the Day:

When schoolchildren return from vacation and are asked to list the good things and the bad things about their summer, their lists tend to be equally long. Over the year, however, if the exercise is repeated, the good list grows longer and the bad shorter until by the end of the year the children are describing not actual vacations but idealized images of Vacation.

Stephanie Coontz. The Way We Never Were: American Families and the Nostalgia Trap. Basic Books. (c) 1992.

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

[bucolic_frolic]

1. AAPL TSLA plunge, speculative issues at risk

Anything interest rate dependent was a rough bet today. Crypto, finance too. This should have been a rebound day after tax selling at the end of the year. But I've also seen years where the first day or two plunge, as people begin tax selling for this tax year, and then a stock rocket upward. Take your pick.

[Tansy_Gold]

2. I'm not that smart

To me, it's all a crap shoot . . . . or a Ponzi scheme.

And anyway, I'm too poor to play that game! I just sit on the sidelines and watch.

[progree]

3. What does "sitting on the sidelines" mean? You never indicate where or whether

you have any kind of long-term savings, and what it is invested in that is so much better. Or do you have so much money that you won't have to withdraw any to live on in retirement? What is better than the stock market? What holds up better in the face of withdrawals and inflation? Bonds? CDs? Savings accounts? Money market? No, no, no, and no

We've been over this at least 3 times before
https://www.democraticunderground.com/111694222#post5

I'm not that smart

Just put it in a total U.S. stock market index fund or an S&P 500 index fund and forget about it. The vast majority of people who think they are smart and actively pick stocks don't have as good a return. Even professional managers of active funds don't on average.

And anyway, I'm too poor to play that game!

I was too poor not to. Simulation after simulation by countless authors and organizations show one is more likely to exhaust their nest egg if it is all fixed income like bonds and CDs than if it is majority equity. I know I'd be in tenuous circumstances if I had not invested in equities, mostly broad-based mutual funds and ETFs. Instead, I can give to Democratic candidates and progressive organizations in the $thousands.

To me, it's all a crap shoot . . . . or a Ponzi scheme

Or, perhaps, earnings drive the market? This from Peter Lynch in 2001:

Since World War II, despite nine recessions and many other economic setbacks, corporate earnings are up 63 fold and the stock market is up 71 fold. Corporate profits per share have grown over 9% annually despite the down years. Nine percent may not sound like a lot but consider that it means that profits mathematically double every 8 years, quadruple every 16, are up 16 fold every 32 years, and are up 64 fold every 48 years."

I hate to see my fellow progressives misled by anti-equity "progressive" propaganda and end up having to live a very financially constrained old age, not to mention having very little or nothing to give to Democratic candidates or progressive causes. And by default having to accept the minuscule interest that the banks dole out in savings and CDs and so on.

[Tansy_Gold]

4. You know nothing . . . .

. . . about my circumstances.

Long-term savings? Investments? Some of us have $0 for that. We watch people like Musk lose $200B and laugh because we know it's either not real money that he lost, or because it was other people's real money. He lost nothing real of his own.

Good for you. I'm glad you had a few bucks, maybe a few thousand bucks, to invest in equities and that it worked out for you. There are people who never had a few bucks, a few hundred, a few thousand. People who for one reason or another barely scraped by, day after day, who watched friends grow "rich" because they had those few extra bucks to invest.

I don't even know how long I've been posting the daily Stock Market Watch thread. It's been a long time. Except for a few days several years ago when I went on a vacation and someone else took it over in my absence, I haven't missed but one single day when there was an internet glitch and I couldn't post. I've posted from cheap motels where the wifi went in and out. I've posted on other vacations. I've posted through some pretty major personal crises (including deaths of family members) that I don't even bother to mention here. But it's my choice, and I can choose to stop, too.

Cheer on your fellow investors, but please, don't lecture me. Okay?


Tansy Gold

[progree]

5. True

Last edited Thu Jan 5, 2023, 08:58 AM - Edit history (1)

You know nothing . . . . . . . about my circumstances. Long-term savings? Investments? Some of us have $0 for that.

OK, I didn't claim to know anything about your finances, nor is it any of my business. I was just wondering what you were doing with your money if you did have enough to put away long-term. Fine, I'm sorry. And I was wondering what you thought we should do if we think the stock market is a ponzi scheme, a casino where the house has the edge and such. (As if the "safe alternative" of banks that dole out miniscule interest on savings and CD's don't have an edge).

Unfortunately, some of the reason some have so little saved for retirement is that they bought the radical "progressive" memes about the stock market being a Ponzi scheme or crap shoot at best, and so put what money that they could save in "safe" things that don't even keep up with inflation. Or they had some equities and panic-sold after a big dip that some around here think is really really hilarious.

You do your utmost to dissuade your fellow progressives to invest anything in equities. You've laughed after major drops in the stock market (e.g. https://www.democraticunderground.com/111684367#post5 ) or apparently agreed with "Let it tank I couldn't care less now that we won the election. F Wall Street." ( https://www.democraticunderground.com/111625250#post65 and #66 ).

There are ... People who for one reason or another barely scraped by, day after day, who watched friends grow "rich" because they had those few extra bucks to invest.

If it bothers you that some of our fellow progressives have done well financially, I'm sorry.

Cheer on your fellow investors, but please, don't lecture me. Okay?

I didn't know I was "cheering on" my fellow investors. I often post how we're near or in a bear market with the S&P 500, and how inflation is making the losses even worse in the purchasing power of what's left.

People disagree with me all the time, and present their facts and opinions. That's what happens on a message board. I don't enjoy disagreeing with people, and I don't enjoy doing this, but I think it is important enough to have to weigh in.

Whenever you post JackPineRadicals-style memes that potentially harm the long-term financial situation of our fellow progressives, I will speak up with facts about the historic stock market performance. Every time you laugh at stock market plunges, I will respond. For example, this from a post of mine last April here -

Yes, when an oligarch loses half their net worth, it doesn't affect their lifestyle at all

the remaining half of their wealth is more than they know what to do with.

When a regular person loses half their savings, it sometimes means they can't retire when they planned to. Or there's not enough money for higher education for the children. Or themselves. Or they can't afford some earnings downtime as they pursue a different career or other goals, for example.

Also, sustained stock market declines adversely affect consumer and business confidence, resulting in a reduction in spending with ripple effects throughout the economy, causing slowdowns, reduced hiring, and sometimes recessions, that affect all people, hurting those with the least the most.

The stock market is a leading indicator. All recessions that I've looked at began with a severe stock market downturn several months before the GDP and employment downturns began. Similarly, most or all economic recoveries were preceded by stock market upturns.

As I said in my above post #3 -- "I hate to see my fellow progressives misled by anti-equity "progressive" propaganda and end up having to live a very financially constrained old age, not to mention having very little or nothing to give to Democratic candidates or progressive causes. And by default having to accept the minuscule interest that the banks dole out in savings and CDs and so on. "

Have a nice evening

[Tansy_Gold]

6. My money is my business

It's none of yours.

Butt out, fella.

[progree]

7. Yes. But when you say something I disagree with, and that is harmful to the long run

Last edited Thu Jan 5, 2023, 03:47 PM - Edit history (2)

financial health of my fellow progressives. I will say something.

When you are laughing at the misfortunes of others, including some of your fellow DU progressives, I am going to react angrily.

I won't ask what you do with your money again. But since you are advising others what to not do with their money, it seemed fair to ask, at long last what you do with your money and what you think we should do instead with our money if not the equity markets. But OK. Just to be clear again - I will not ask you again what you do with your money.

In your previous post,

I don't even know how long I've been posting the daily Stock Market Watch thread. It's been a long time. Except for a few days several years ago when I went on a vacation and someone else took it over in my absence, I haven't missed but one single day when there was an internet glitch and I couldn't post. I've posted from cheap motels where the wifi went in and out. I've posted on other vacations. I've posted through some pretty major personal crises (including deaths of family members) that I don't even bother to mention here. But it's my choice, and I can choose to stop, too.

I appreciate the Stock Market Watch postings and the work you do to post them, thank you very much.

As for why you post Stock Market Watch, I've gotten the impression over the years that you are waiting for the BIG drop so you can laugh ha ha ha ha ha and pat yourself on the back for being right all along.

(e.g. the big "ha! followed by the 54 ROFL posts https://www.democraticunderground.com/111684367#post5 ) or apparently agreed with "Let it tank I couldn't care less now that we won the election. F Wall Street." ( https://www.democraticunderground.com/111625250#post65 and #66 "Your sentiments are MOST welcome here!" (as if you speak for the group or even the threads' participants ).

https://www.democraticunderground.com/111694222#post3

All this brings me back to my original question from umpteen years ago that ended up putting me into the Stock Market Watch posts to begin with.
Does it really matter all that much to the grand scheme of things what happens to The Markets?
... And if the markets decline, it hurts the 401K folks, but didn't they all go into that with full knowledge that it's always a gamble? I mean, come on, we've been watching this since 2008 at least -- and some of us go back to '87 -- so at what point do we just say enough is enough and let it drop back into the realm of reality?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/111693598

Some of us saw all this coming long ago. I've never backed down from my 2008 rant about Obama's transition team. I still believe there was much that happened in those two months that led us to where we are today. But only time will really tell.
Cartoons or not, I'm here for the duration. I think it will be . . . interesting.

[DemReadingDU]

8. Oh Really?

Tansy has been posting this Stock Market Watch thread for years and years. Thank you Tansy!

But if you think there should be more discussion into the markets, then perhaps you could start posting it with your daily opinions. Maybe there would be more people to offer their insight into the markets with you.

[progree]

9. Yes really.

I don't disagree with any of the Stock Market OP's that I've seen. I very much appreciate her doing that. So there is no reason at all for me to post a daily counter thread.

Its the occasional nonsensical comment about how its a ponzi scheme or crapshoot that I have and will react to every time. Especially when they are harmful to the long-term financial well being of my fellow progressives. And when it is laughing at the misfortunes of others including our investing fellow progressives. And it makes us DU investors out to be fools because only a fool would invest in a ponzi scheme or wager their retirement security on a "crapshoot". So I'm going to react to that too.

Such as post #3 above. and links in it like.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/111694222#post5

As I said in #5 above:

When a regular person loses half their savings, it sometimes means they can't retire when they planned to. Or there's not enough money for higher education for the children. Or themselves. Or they can't afford some earnings downtime as they pursue a different career or other goals, for example.

Also, sustained stock market declines adversely affect consumer and business confidence, resulting in a reduction in spending with ripple effects throughout the economy, causing slowdowns, reduced hiring, and sometimes recessions, that affect all people, hurting those with the least the most.

The stock market is a leading indicator. All recessions that I've looked at began with a severe stock market downturn several months before the GDP and employment downturns began. Similarly, most or all economic recoveries were preceded by stock market upturns.

I don't give a fat whoop how long anyone has posting whatever here.

I don't have to write a daily thread in order to reply to a comment about the markets. You will just have to live with that, I'm afraid.