US jobless claims inch down as labor market remains tight

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US jobless claims inch down as labor market remains tight

The Associated Press
March 23, 2023, 8:41 AM

The labor market continues to defy Federal Reserve attempts at loosening it, with U.S. applications for unemployment benefits down again last week and remaining at historically low levels.

Jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending March 18 fell by 1,000 to 191,000 from the previous week, the Labor Department said Thursday.

The four-week moving average of claims, which flattens out some of week-to-week volatility, fell by 250 to 196,250, remaining below the 200,000 threshold for the ninth straight week.

Applications for unemployment benefits are seen as a barometer for layoffs in the U.S.

About 1.69 million people were receiving jobless aid the week that ended March 11, an increase of 14,000 from the week before. That number is close to pre-pandemic levels.

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[progree]

1. Continuing claims up by 10,000 from the previous report

Last edited Thu Mar 23, 2023, 09:45 AM - Edit history (1)

From the source: https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Initial claims: 191,000, down by 1,000 from previous week. The previous week was unrevised

Insured unemployment aka continuing claims: 1,694,000, an increase of 14,000 from previous week. The previous week was revised down by 4,000 (so compared to the last Thursday's report, it increased 14,000 - 4,000 = 10,000. Last Thursday, 1,684,000 continuing claims were reported)

I've always been a bit aberrant in thinking that revisions to previous reports are just as important as this week's change from the revised number. (Same with the payroll job numbers)

Great graphs of above link. While the general trend has been down for initial claims, and then flat from about February 1, in contrast for continuing claims which has been up from early October - mid December and then flat since then.

Edited to add- I see from the calendar that the next inflation report is Friday March 31 -- the PCE which is the Fed's favorite one (the core PCE specifically).

The last reports, in mid-March:

the CPI report thru February was bad (3 month average core CPI 5.2% annualized),
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143045881#post6

while the PPI (wholesale prices) thru February was good (3 month average core PPI 3.7% annualized). "Good" because the last month, February, was 2.4% annualized.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143046276#post3

the PCE through January (released late February) (3 month average core PCE 4.7% annualized)
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143038482#post12

[Marcus IM]

2. If this continues, the Fed will "have to" raise rates again to beat-down labor and employment.

But ... with America's most excellent, fully funded safety nets (the envy of the world, so we're told) all will be fine for the unemployed who get fired.

Oh ... wait ...

[peppertree]

3. +1

There are far too many holdovers from the House of Orange still at their posts - and in very important posts.

None more so than Scary Jerry.

Reminds me of Dune - the part in which the reformist Atreides take Arrakis over from the craven Harkonnens, only to be sabotaged by moles and stay-behinds.

History, as you know, is full of such tragedies.

[Marcus IM]

4. Great analogy.

With a little bit of 5th Element