U.S. weekly jobless claims fall; layoffs jump in March

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Macro Matters

April 6, 2023 8:52 AM EDT Last Updated an hour ago

U.S. weekly jobless claims fall; layoffs jump in March

Reuters

WASHINGTON, April 6 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but the picture of the labor market was unclear following revisions to prior data after the government updated the model it uses to adjust the series for seasonal fluctuations.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 228,000 for the week ended April 1, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Data for the prior week was revised to show 48,000 more applications received than previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000 claims for the latest week.

The government revised data for some prior years and introduced new seasonal factors for both initial and the so-called continuing claims. These would be publicly available at midday.

Economists had viewed pandemic-related distortions to seasonal factors, the model that the government uses to strip out seasonal fluctuations from the data, as one of several factors keeping claims low despite high-profile layoffs in the technology industry and some interest rate-sensitive sectors.

Goldman Sachs in a note estimated that distortions to the seasonal factors had been "depressing reported seasonally-adjusted initial claims by 40,000-50,000 and have masked a roughly 45,000 rise in the official series since the start of the year."

{snip}

[doc03]

1. Jobless claims fall, layoffs jump in March? The FED needs to stop

their interest rate increases. That with higher energy prices will compound the problem unless
what they want is a recession in an election year.

[peppertree]

3. No can do

They're all in on getting His Orangeness (or any other Repug fascist) back in the saddle for '24 - and triggering a recession is the sine qua non.

[progree]

2. Continuing claims: 1,823k (up 6k from previous week, previous week revised up 128k)

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The 1,823k continuing claims is the highest level since December 11, 2021

In last Thursday's report (3/30), continuing claims was reported as 1,689k
(1,689 + 6 + 128 = 1,823 v/ )

Continuing claims is what the DOL report calls insured unemployment.

The graphs at the above link show considerable growth in both initial and continuing claims.