November jobs report to test soft landing narrative

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Yahoo Finance

November jobs report to test soft landing narrative

Josh Schafer • Reporter
Thu, Dec 7, 2023, 4:32 PM EST 3 min read

The November jobs report is set for release Friday morning and is expected to show a reacceleration in job growth after worker strikes impacted the October report.

The monthly labor report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show nonfarm payrolls rose by 185,000 in November while the unemployment rate remained flat at 3.9% from the previous month, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In October, the US economy added 150,000 jobs while unemployment ticked up to 3.9%.

Here are the key numbers Wall Street will be looking at, according to data from Bloomberg:

• Nonfarm payrolls: +185,000 vs. +150,000 previously

• Unemployment rate: 3.9% vs. 3.9% previously

• Average hourly earnings, month-on-month: +0.3% vs. +0.2% previously

• Average hourly earnings, year-on-year: +4.0% vs. +4.1% previously

• Average weekly hours worked: 34.4 vs. 34.4 previously

The report will serve as a test for the stock market. Investors are betting the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates and are widely expecting rate cuts in 2024. Much of that thesis is based on the labor market normalizing from its pandemic boom and inflation slowing. If the report helps reinforce that narrative, it could lift equities.

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Recent data this week showed signs of cooling in the labor market. On Tuesday, the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, revealed the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed workers fell to 1.34, its lowest reading since August 2021.

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Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance.

2 days ago

An Ominous Sign for Friday's Jobs Report

By David Harrison, Reporter

U.S. service sector activity picked up slightly in November but employers pared back hiring, according to a survey of business purchasing managers released Tuesday by S&P Global.

Employment rose at the weakest pace since October 2022 with many firms saying they slowed hiring to cut costs.

The surveys could point to a weaker hiring number for November when the Labor Department releases its closely-watched employment report Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal see payrolls rising by 190,000 in November, up from 150,000 in October. They see the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9%.

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U.S. PMI Composite refuses to budge in November

Dec. 05, 2023 9:47 AM ET By: Max Gottlich, SA News Editor

November S&P Global U.S. PMI Composite (Final) came in at 50.7, unchanged from the flash estimate and the October reading.

With the index above 50, business activity expanded modestly, reflecting slight growth at manufacturers and service providers.

"Despite a renewed contraction in manufacturing new orders, a return to growth in the service sector drove the latest rise in new business, ending a three-month sequence of decline," S&P Global said.

Services PMI: 50.8 vs. 50.8 initial estimate and 50.6 in October.

"While service sector businesses continued to report further output gains in November, growth remains considerably weaker than seen earlier in the year, and forward-looking indicators point to growth slowing in the months ahead," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

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[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. Labor market hiring is slower but healthy with strength in a few key sectors

ECONOMY

Labor market hiring is slower but healthy with strength in a few key sectors

The November jobs report, to be released Friday morning, will provide the latest snapshot of the state of the jobs market heading into 2024

By Lauren Kaori Gurley
December 8, 2023 at 6:00 a.m. EST

The final stretch of 2023 is shaping up to be the slowest hiring period in years for the U.S. labor market, as employers tighten their belts after years of explosive growth following the job losses of the coronavirus pandemic. ... In fact, there are just a handful of industries, health care especially, that are fueling the labor market, keeping the economy out of a recession that economists had widely feared just a year ago.

The November jobs report, to be released Friday morning, will provide the latest snapshot of the state of the jobs market heading into 2024, with economists predicting 190,000 new jobs, up from 150,000 in October. Economists are also forecasting that the unemployment rate will hold at 3.9 percent, but are watching closely for any pickup.

“The unemployment rate has been rising for months, the question is whether this is a trend that will continue," said Nick Bunker, economic research director at the jobs site Indeed. A rising unemployment rate could be a warning sign, he added.

The unemployment rate, which fell to lows not seen since the late 1960s in April, has increased by half a percentage point since then with about 849,000 more workers reporting that they are unemployed. That softening is likely happening for a variety reasons that should not cause concern about a broader downturn for now, economists say. More workers are entering and reentering the labor market. Also, recently a wave of strikes, notably in the auto-manufacturing and entertainment industries, which were resolved, have created some labor market slack.

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By Lauren Kaori Gurley
Lauren Kaori Gurley is the labor reporter for The Washington Post. She previously covered labor and tech for Vice's Motherboard. Twitter https://twitter.com/laurenkgurley

[bucolic_frolic]

2. Soft Landing is but a phase in long term monetary cycle

But Joe Biden may luck out here because of the digital and gig economy. Everyone's got something going on the side. It is a better fit to citizens' financial resources, and to the temporarily idle resources of the economy.