US producer prices rise moderately; weekly jobless claims fall
US producer prices rise moderately; weekly jobless claims fall
By Lucia Mutikani
April 11, 2024 11:17 AM EDT • Updated an hour ago
Summary
• Producer prices increase 0.2% in March
• Services prices rise 0.3; goods slip 0.1%
• Weekly jobless claims drop 11,000 to 211,000
• Continuing claims advance 28,000 to 1.817 million
WASHINGTON, April 11 (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices increased moderately in March as a rise in the cost of services was softened by a fall in goods prices, which could help to calm fears inflation was reaccelerating.
Other data from the Labor Department on Thursday showed first-time applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, pointing to a still fairly tight labor market, though it could be taking longer for some laid-off workers to land new jobs.
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= new reply since forum marked as read
Since the core measures are what the Fed focuses mainly on as a base for projecting FUTURE inflation.
As for which core PPI measure, since the BLS highlights the one below in its reporting (as opposed to the one without food and energy), then I guess I should do likewise.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm
BLS Data Series CORE PPI (excluding food, energy, trade services): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD49116
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BLS Data Series Regular PPI ( includes "everything" ): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/WPSFD4
Sorry no graphs from me on this one, but the above link has graphs. Choose "More Formatting Options", and check the one month and three month and whetever else you want to check.
Here is the rolling 3 month average for the last 13 months (March 2023 thru March 2024),
NOT ANNUALIZED, so these are 3 month percent changes
I double-dashed the negative ones so they stick out more
0.0, --0.2, --0.4, 0.0, 0.3, 1.2, 1.4, 0.5, --0.1, --0.3, 0.3, 0.8, 1.1
To annualize (roughly), multiply by 4. So the last data point annualized is 1.1% * 4 = 4.4%
More accurately (using the actual index values and annualizing the correct way), it comes to 4.37%
so that's the last 3 months annualized
Edited to Add: a link to the LBN posting on this story, which made it to the Left Column:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143223987
It's not a pretty picture.
I'll add some words later, but for now, the CORE CPI - which the Fed and most economists view as a better basis for projecting *FUTURE* inflation than the regular CPI. (The regular CPI aka "headline" CPI has all the components; the CORE CPI is that less food and energy because they are very volatile from month to month -- well energy certainly is). Anyway, if trying to figure out what the Fed might do, the core CPI is what they look at (actually the core PCE which came out at the end of March is what they put the most weight on). Blah blah
ETA: these are calculated from the actual index values, not from the rounded percent changes
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E
ETA: The Regular aka Headline CPI
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
ETA: CORE PCE through February that came out 3/29/24
CORE PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE
This is the one that the Fed weighs most heavily. The Fed weigh the PCE more heavily than the CPI. And in both cases, they weigh the CORE measures higher than the regular headline measures
ETA: Regular PCE through February that came out 3/29/24
PCE: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPI
ETA: Added links to the CORE PCE and the PCE data
ETA: Added link to the regular CPI.