Commentary: Peak Oil: Yes, still a serious issue

[Javaman]

http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2012-01-30/peak-oil-yes-still-serious-issue

The director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will be delivering a lecture titled “U.S. Energy Outlook: Whatever Happened to ‘Peak Oil’” at Indiana University on February 6. The description of the lecture provides some background: “Not long ago, the public heard much concern that the nation and the globe had reached or was about to reach the point of peak oil production and would be on a downward trajectory due to declining resources. Despite growing demand for energy, however, fossil fuel resources have never been higher.”

One would hope that the USGS director will point out that the peak of US oil production occurred in 1970 around 10 million barrels of oil per day, and while US production has increased recently, it currently stands far below the peak at approximately 6 million barrels of oil per day - this in a time when “fossil fuel resources have never been higher.” As those familiar with Peak Oil know, the key issue is not the total size of the resource - but the rate at which the resource can be extracted and utilized.

News of the USGS director’s address prompted thoughts about the nature of the Peak Oil debate and how criticism of Peak Oil typically contains certain predictable characteristics, often fails to emphasize the daily rate of extraction, and dismisses the reasonable view that we should soberly examine both optimistic and pessimistic projections about future oil supplies.

Anatomy of the Peak Oil Critique

Peak Oil thought is on a spectrum, and it is important to remember that there are a wide variety of opinions and positions. But for the purpose of discussion, it’s still possible to examine larger groups, two of which I’ll call: mainstream Peak Oil educators and mainstream Peak Oil critics.

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