Here's what I see:
* Trump expected to win in 2020, and he came very close to doing it, in part with the help and support of Putin, who was ramping up the war with Ukraine at that point, a war Putin expected to be over in 6 weeks. Three years later, Putin's economy is teetering towards collapse, and while Russian disinformation continues to make its way into the US, the massive amounts of money that were fueling GOP political campaigns top down has turned into a trickle.
* There are a fair number of billionaires out there who are unhappy at the prospect of being taxed on unrealized capital gains, and they would prefer Trump. However, I think they also realize that THEY have to tread carefully there, given that being a billionaire when a lot of people are struggling is not necessarily a good time to seem too greedy. The amount of money going into the RNC coffers has been anemic, and too much of it has likely been siphoned off by Trump
* Heritage Foundation overplayed its hand, and has also gained a lot more visibility about their plans than I think they intended. I don't think their plans have changed, but increasingly their questioning whether they have enough support themselves to pull it off.
* Many of the lower-level J6 people have been prosecuted and are now in prison, some for many years. This means first that a lot of the organizational structure that made J6 possible has been severely compromised. It also means that people understand that their actions will have serious consequences. That tends to cool a lot of revolutionary fervor.
* Trump is now clearly aware that the electoral college is slipping away from him. His health is failing, he's burdened with nearly $2 billion in debt which his various grifts are not even beginning to touch, his bought judges, one-by-one, are slipping away. He doesn't have the cover of the presidency anymore, and he's about to lose what allies he has in Congress.
If there is a conspiracy going on here, it's pretty inept, especially since Trump has trouble keeping his own mouth shut.
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