About Those Bullet Ballots

[SickOfTheOnePct]

85. Looking at actual numbers tells a different story

I figured it would be pretty easy to calculate the numbers based on the state election sites... As expected, numbers cited on the podcast and then re-posted here are nowhere close to true.

If any of the assumptions I make below are incorrect, or if my math is off, I welcome any and all corrections.

We've been told that the definition of a bullet ballot in this context is one in which there is only a Presidential vote, and no votes for any other race on the ballot.

From the Nevada election site https://silverstateelection.nv.gov/

Votes for President:
Trump 751,205
Harris 705,197
Other 28,438
Total: 1,484,840

So, for Nevada to have 5% of their ballots be bullet ballots in Trump's favor, that means that 37,560 ballots would have had to have a Trump vote only, with no other votes on them.

The Senate race for Nevada recorded a total of 1,464,728 votes, a difference of 20,112 votes. That means that if on those ballots, no other races/questions were voted, the overall "bullet ballot" rate would be 1.35%. If one assumes that every one of those "bullet ballots" was a Trump vote, the rate would increase to 2.68%.

Neither number is near 5%.

OK, but what about Arizona?
From the Arizona election site https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/47/0

Votes for President:
Trump 1,764,862
Harris 1,577,729
Other 36,060
Total: 3,378,651

So, for Arizona to have 7% of their ballots be bullet ballots in Trump's favor, that means that 123,540 ballots would have had to have a Trump vote only, with no other votes on them.

The Senate race for Arizona recorded a total of 3,337,566 votes, a difference of 41,085 votes. That means that if on those ballots, no other races/questions were voted, the overall "bullet ballot" rate would be 1.22%. If one assumes that every one of those "bullet ballots" was a Trump vote, the rate would increase to 2.33%.

Neither number is near 7%.

OK, but what about Utah? I mean their "bullet ballot" total was way less!

Was it?

From the Utah election site https://app.enhancedvoting.com/results/public/utah/elections/general11052024
Votes for President:
Trump 874,138
Harris 587,646
Other 41,773
Total: 1,473,557

The Senate race for Utah recorded a total of 1,449,577 votes , a difference of 23,980 votes. That means that if on those ballots, no other races/questions were voted, the overall "bullet ballot" rate would be 1.63%. If one assumes that every one of those "bullet ballots" was a Trump vote, the rate would increase to 2.74%.

OK, but Utah is a red state, so they had no need to try to cheat on the vote. I bet there are "bullet ballots" in blue states they wanted to win, like Virginia.

Let's see

From the Virginia election site https://enr.elections.virginia.gov/results/public/Virginia/elections/2024NovemberGeneral
Votes for President:
Trump 2,074,872
Harris 2,334,800
Other 95,424
Total: 4,505,096

The Senate race for Virginia recorded a total of 4,444,713 votes, a difference of 95,424 votes. That means that if on those ballots, no other races/questions were voted, the overall "bullet ballot" rate would be 1.34%. If one assumes that every one of those "bullet ballots" was a Trump vote, the rate would increase to 2.91%

All of this is to say that unless the podcasters are actually providing citations for their numbers, that can be viewed by anyone, they're simply pedaling bullshit to desperate people. In other words, intentional misinformation