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In reply to the discussion: Former US Army statistician finds 2024 election win by Trump is off the charts improbable. [View all]Wiz Imp
(4,745 posts)and it hadn't happened since 1984. That is a total BS argument. Swing states change over time. Let's look at 2008. Wisconsin was in the middle of a string of 7 straight elections where they voted for the Democrat. Michigan & Pennsylvania were in the middle of strings of 6 straight. Georgia was in a string of 6 straight voting for the Republican and Arizona 5 straight. None of these states were swing states in 2008. Even North Carolina, which Obama won, shouldn't have been realistically considered a swing state. That was the only time in the past 12 elections that North Carolina voted for the Democrat. The only current swing state that was realistically a swing state in 2008 was Nevada. Other potential swing states in 2008 were Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Florida, Colorado & Virginia. And guess what? Obama won every single one of them.
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