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In reply to the discussion: Former US Army statistician finds 2024 election win by Trump is off the charts improbable. [View all]standingtall
(3,071 posts)but using the 08 Obama election isn't going to be very convincing for people who buy into this for a number of reasons. 1 Obama didn't win the poplar vote by just 1.5% like Trump, but by 7.2% so he won the poplar vote by almost 5 times the spread Trump did in 2024. 2 Headed into election day it was pretty clear Obama would win and there was only an inkling of doubt if the Country would vote for a black man.
3 Obama won every swing or potential swing State by at least 4 points or more. He won Nevada by about 13.5 points and New Mexico by 15 points. Unlike Trump who only won Georgia just by over 2 points,Michigan by just about 1.5 points,Pennsylvania by just under 2 points, and Wisconsin by just under a single point. The biggest spread Trump won any swing State by was Arizona at just under 6 points.
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