The Tories are hell-bent on Brexit happening on 31 October, despite the fact their planning is in no shape for the country to be able to cope with a no-deal Brexit if it came to it.
Both the Tories and Labour have been paying close attention to polling as to when the best timing for their advantage would be to hold an election.
The Tories have wanted one as soon as possible ever since they lost their majority in parliament, not just because they're worried that the ill effects if we did crash out of the EU on 31 October would be a bad basis for an election campaign, but because there's a window when parliament would have been closed down for the election that would overlap with the exit date, meaning it would be more difficult for the opposition to impede because parliament wouldn't be sitting (a law has been passed to force the government to ask for an extension of no deal has been reached by then, but at the moment Johnson's being cagey about whether he'd obey it). That window's fast closing, as the election campaign can't be less than 25 days.
Labour's calculated that it's best waiting till after 31 October, whatever happens on that date (i.e. if Brexit goes ahead, the Tories did it, not them, so they can argue that the bad consequences aren't their fault; if it doesn't, another referendum here we come, and the ball's kicked down the road again).
The Tories also have to balance what works in the Brexit Party's favour against them. It's likely to leech votes from them (and Labour too, but possibly to a lesser extent) in constituencies where the Tories can ill afford it if they don't go ahead with Brexit full speed or seem to be wavering.
An extension of the Brexit deadline before an election would be the Tories' worst-case scenario.
The polls are all over the shop, and a four-way split in English and Welsh seats between the Tories (hard Leave), the Lib Dems (now Remain), the Brexit Party (hard Leave with added clown horns) and Labour (who the hell knows? Currently possibly another referendum and leave it to the electorate to figure it out since they did such a great job last time, but keep checking back for changes) would be very hard to call at the constituency level whatever the national percentages say, the most likely result being yet another hung parliament.
No matter what, the government have currently gone full-on hardcore rabble-rousing and are using their leverage on the BBC and links to friendly/gullible/colluding journalists to stir up the prospect of civil unrest via anonymous "No. 10 sources" (a.k.a. Johnson's special adviser/boss Dominic Cummings) quoted daily in the media and to try to smear Labour with unfounded allegations of colluding with EU countries to sidetrack Brexit etc. As far as the Tories are concerned, the election campaign has already started, and Johnson is daily holding press opportunities, hospital visits etc.
So they need their wings clipped real quick somehow to avoid their using their current position of power to cause even more harm and stir up more trouble (they can't get anything though parliament at the moment, but there's plenty of mischief they can get up to by using the civil service and other levers of power while appealing to those who might turn to civil unrest to help them get their way).
How to do that with a divided opposition and no clear leadership to gather around is the key question, and one we may, if we're very, very lucky, get some answers to this week, otherwise we'll just keep staggering on as before as the clock ticks on.
Meanwhile, Johnson's under investigation for shenanigans during his time as London mayor, which if even a fraction of what I've been reading pans out (we're talking links as far as Epstein's circle and the shady transcontinental groups that move in and between that and other circles), could be pretty explosive. Whether that investigation will progress quickly enough to have any bearing on an election is anyone's guess at the moment.
= new reply since forum marked as read