James Hansen, by his nature, seems to be an indomitable optimist. He believes that if he just explains the science clearly enough, nations will act accordingly. I believe this paper contributed to the admission that
we must limit warming to 1.5°C. Leaders of the world’s nations agreed we needed to take dramatic action to meet that goal.
Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Hearty, R. Ruedy, M. Kelley, V. Masson-Delmotte, G. Russell, G. Tselioudis, J. Cao, E. Rignot, I. Velicogna, B. Tormey, B. Donovan, E. Kandiano, K. von Schuckmann, P. Kharecha, A.N. Legrande, M. Bauer, and K.-W. Lo, 2016: Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms:/ evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761-3812. doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016.
Since, to date, they have not, Hansen seems to be pinning his hopes on political revolution. (What if the world were under
new leadership?)
Hansen, J.E., M. Sato, L. Simons, L.S. Nazarenko, I. Sangha, P. Kharecha, et al. 2023: Global warming in the pipeline, Oxford Open Climate Change, 3, Issue 1, kgad008.
… under the present geopolitical approach to GHG emissions, global warming will exceed 1.5°C in the 2020s and 2°C before 2050. Impacts on people and nature will accelerate as global warming increases hydrologic (weather) extremes.The enormity of consequences demands a return to Holocene-level global temperature. Required actions include: (1) a global increasing price on GHG emissions accompanied by development of abundant, affordable, dispatchable clean energy, (2) East-West cooperation in a way that accommodates developing world needs, and (3) intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance to phase down today’s massive human-made ‘geo-transformation’ of Earth’s climate. Current political crises present an opportunity for reset, especially if young people can grasp their situation.
“Intervention with Earth’s radiation imbalance” (
if we could agree to do it)
might turn down the heat a bit, but it won’t help with other planetary boundaries (e.g. ocean acidification.)
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