2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Will the Democratic Party unify under Hillary or split in two [View all]Miles Archer
(19,016 posts)...and if we get four years of what voters outside of her base are expecting, I think that will be the end of it right there. There will be no second term. If she runs, and if the Republicans do not have a "populist" option, you will see a dramatic rise of a third party.
You cannot be the Goldman-Sachs candidate and appeal to the base of Sanders supporters at the same time. You can't be a hawk and appeal to the base of Sanders supporters at the same time.
It's not going to happen.
I see one of two scenarios.
1). The people who are not Clinton supporters have a pretty accurate assessment of what she will do in office, and if she's given four years to do it, they're not going to vote for a second term in 2020
2). The people who are not Clinton supporters have it all wrong, she's not who they think she is, and they will be pleasantly surprised in varying degrees if and when she takes office
And as I've said before, if it gets to the Republican convention and they are looking at Clinton vs. Trump in November, they will throw Trump under the bus and draft Ryan. If it's Clinton vs. Ryan, Ryan wins. The Kochs, Adelson, and every other Republican with deep pockets will throw obscene amounts of money into the worst smear campaign of our generation. I don't see Clinton fighting this. I see her standing her ground, which is what she does...right or wrong...and under the weight of the RNC machine, with a poster boy they all love on their side of the ring, she's toast.
If Trump gets his 1237 delegates, they will have a hard time pulling that off. If he falls short, they will draft Ryan.
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