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2016 Postmortem

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NanceGreggs

(27,835 posts)
Fri Dec 2, 2016, 11:57 PM Dec 2016

The Fatal Flaw in the Post-Mortem Analyses [View all]

Like everyone here, I have been reading the autopsy reports on Hillary’s campaign. So far, she lost the election due to everything from her choice of high school courses to her last bad hair day.

What is being overlooked by pretty much everyone posting their post-election opinions on political discussion boards is the fact that the average voter doesn’t post on political websites – in fact, most voters don’t even read them, or even know they exist.

The truth is that those of us who do post, here or elsewhere, are political junkies. We follow every move made by anyone connected to US politics. We parse their every statement, we know their histories from their first campaign to their most recent tweet. We can recite, verbatim, every speech they’ve ever made, every word they’ve ever uttered. We can tell anyone interested what scandals they have been even remotely connected to, what positions they’ve taken on every issue since being elected, and what their spouses wore at their last public appearance. In some cases, we can rattle-off the names and ages of their children, along with the names of their household pets.

“Hillary lost because she voted for the Iraq war. She lost because she didn’t address the email issue or Benghazi strenuously enough. She lost because she was once a Goldwater Girl, and people never forgot. She lost because she was friendly with Dubya at a fundraiser, and that turned people off. She lost because of her position on ____" Just fill in the blank with something that happened more than six weeks ago, and you’re delving into history that most people aren’t even aware of, no less based their vote on.

What we all fail to acknowledge is that the average voter doesn’t know – nor care – what HRC, nor any other politician, did before they go to the polls to cast their ballots. For the most part, the average voter can’t name their own congress critters, no less tell you what their position is on anything. The truth is that when asked, the average voter isn’t quite sure that the Civil War actually happened, no less which side won.

Let’s remember that a large part of the population still think that Obama didn’t do enough to keep the country safe when he was president during the 9/11 attacks, or when Katrina happened on his watch.

To cite Hillary’s alleged failings of thirty years ago, twenty years ago, or even six months ago as being her downfall in a 2016 election is the stuff that political junkies cling to as an explanation or an excuse – depending on whose side you’re on – despite the fact that the average voter can’t tell you who the president was on September 11, 2001.

We unfortunately live in a world where the average voter is far more aware of whose single topped the charts in 1960 than who was elected POTUS that same year. They can tell you what movie won Best Picture in 1974, but they can’t tell you why Nixon resigned. They can recite the entire history of every Kardashian ever born, but they don’t know the history of their own country – nor are they interested.

Why did HRC really lose this election? Maybe it was too many poor wardrobe choices, or the wrong tweet at the wrong time.

Or maybe it was because the average voter was too busy binge-watching Boardwalk Empire, Dexter, or maybe The Apprentice, to pay attention to an election that would ultimately impact their access to affordable healthcare, their right to choose, the rights of their fellow citizens to marry who they love – or simply the idea that maybe a bigoted racist should never have had a shot at the presidency in the first place.

Blame it on HRC, the DNC, DWS, the PTB, the NRA, the CIA – and all of the other alphabet soup conspirators. What it comes down to is the FUV – the fucked-up-voter – who couldn’t be bothered to look beyond the bumper-sticker slogans in order to make an informed choice.

So stop thinking that the average voter even knows what Hillary did while First Lady, a NY senator, or Secretary of State. The truth is that the average voter hardly remembers that she ever held those positions – if they ever knew – no less what she said or did while she held any of those positions.

In today’s world, nothing that happened more than three weeks ago has any relevance to the average voter, and attributing Hill’s loss to things like her friendship with Henry Kissinger only leads to one thing: a flurry of Google searches entitled Who is Henry Kissinger?

Ultimately, HRC “lost” because too many of the people who voted for her live in the “wrong states”. It has nothing to do with what she said thirty years ago, things that only political junkies care about, or have any awareness of whatsoever.

This was never an election based on Hillary’s past history. It was an election based on who said what in the three weeks before the election – and whether they said it on a “news” network that was up in the ratings at the time.

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Too many of them knew one thing for sure: they didn't like her BeyondGeography Dec 2016 #1
As far as tRump polling as being more honest... I always say never underestimate the stupidity of the average American voter. InAbLuEsTaTe Dec 2016 #5
This was an unparalleled election. a I would not take away anything from it at all. SleeplessinSoCal Dec 2016 #16
You certainly can't trust an FBI to which you have appointed a Republican to head. nt Nay Dec 2016 #41
In the end, the majority of voters ... NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #17
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that. TwilightZone Dec 2016 #2
Your post needs video. Here: longship Dec 2016 #4
Not a bad analysis... you're absolutely right, the average voter is horribly misinformed... InAbLuEsTaTe Dec 2016 #3
The average AMERICAN VOTER sheshe2 Dec 2016 #6
Even a surprising number of intelligent, well-educated people I know... maddiemom Dec 2016 #15
Agree. And when a 20-something was giving me his (uninformed) views on the election spooky3 Dec 2016 #64
Well put. Unfortunately, the response to that politically needs to be flashier, more social Grown2Hate Dec 2016 #7
My idea may be a bit stupid, but in this day and age, might be the only hope... rwsanders Dec 2016 #13
I've often thought this might be a good idea. Ligyron Dec 2016 #43
I'm thinking Ted Danson rwsanders Dec 2016 #72
yep... dhill926 Dec 2016 #8
I live and work in places that voted in T Tumbulu Dec 2016 #9
Mega Dittos...n/t orwell Dec 2016 #19
and yet we control Hollywood pretty much Ligyron Dec 2016 #45
A lot of that stupidity is driven by the Reich Wing media . . FairWinds Dec 2016 #10
Like the OP is saying, the average American voter doesn't Grey Lemercier Dec 2016 #20
Respectfully disagree, Mr. Grey FairWinds Dec 2016 #53
Not a Mr. Grey Lemercier Dec 2016 #55
Sadly this is pretty close to accurate. Flatpicker Dec 2016 #11
NanceGreggs brings up a lot of fair points as does Beyond Geography. PatsFan87 Dec 2016 #12
Why would we have someone "controversial" as our candidate? NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #23
It doesn't matter how qualified a candidate is when they're shrouded in controversy PatsFan87 Dec 2016 #28
Yeah, I get your point. NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #32
Having a candidate who's actually electable is a good thing. PatsFan87 Dec 2016 #34
Hillary won the popular vote ... NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #57
Because she didn't win. PatsFan87 Dec 2016 #68
So Democrats should forget about the country ... NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #69
There are numerous reasons why the Clinton's lost. applegrove Dec 2016 #14
25+ Years of Marketing Bettie Dec 2016 #18
The last thing most voters heard about was from Comey world wide wally Dec 2016 #21
sigh.... KnR Hekate Dec 2016 #22
can't really disagree... nt TheFrenchRazor Dec 2016 #24
Excellent analysis...nt asuhornets Dec 2016 #25
She should have visited, just visited, the Upper Midwest and PA RelativelyJones Dec 2016 #26
She thought she had their votes covered, bad mistake in hindsight! akbacchus_BC Dec 2016 #29
She should have ... NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #30
You still need to show up and rally the troops RelativelyJones Dec 2016 #35
Sorry, but no. NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #58
So you think the campaign made no mistakes? RelativelyJones Dec 2016 #59
Every campaign makes "mistakes". NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #60
I agree. RelativelyJones Dec 2016 #71
according to this thread, what good would it do? NRQ891 Dec 2016 #44
The meme "But she should have campaigned in 'X' state" has been debunked BumRushDaShow Dec 2016 #51
Have you seen this list of all of her events in PA, WI, etc., during that time period? spooky3 Dec 2016 #65
Not only that, CNN and MSNBC had trump on tv 24 effing 7. Those two networks got trump elected, akbacchus_BC Dec 2016 #27
I was in the States for a week in October, and I noticd that, too DFW Dec 2016 #39
What you said! leftofcool Dec 2016 #31
K&R brer cat Dec 2016 #33
It's simpler than any of the above, just not ready for a female POTUS. CK_John Dec 2016 #36
I'm not sure I buy that NRQ891 Dec 2016 #42
Niki Haley, Jan Brewer, that horrible woman from Tenn, Blacksomething Ligyron Dec 2016 #47
None ran for POTUS but it is the only way we will get a female POTUS is CK_John Dec 2016 #54
Another of your Magic Eight Ball prophecies, eh? LanternWaste Dec 2016 #82
that too, absolutely; the first one always has to be shot down, but never forget, she actually WON TheFrenchRazor Dec 2016 #56
Blue collar workers in the Rust Belt know Pres Clinton signed NAFTA and PNTR with China Dems to Win Dec 2016 #37
Where's the standing ovation emoji? Nwgirl503 Dec 2016 #38
they can smell condecendsion, that's for sure NRQ891 Dec 2016 #40
K&R BumRushDaShow Dec 2016 #46
Yes but those people at the water cooler or break room do listen to Political Junkies Ligyron Dec 2016 #49
I work in an office like that BumRushDaShow Dec 2016 #50
Wait....they wouldn't vote if Obama wasn't on the ballot? LisaM Dec 2016 #79
Yup. BumRushDaShow Dec 2016 #83
In Seattle we have a lot of elections. LisaM Dec 2016 #85
Outside of ad hoc special elections BumRushDaShow Dec 2016 #89
We have vote by mail only (I'm not a fan, actually) LisaM Dec 2016 #91
I thought I had seen that Washington State (and I think Oregon) had mail-in BumRushDaShow Dec 2016 #92
Most people like it more than I do, but.... LisaM Dec 2016 #93
The key states were so close that "political junkies" may well have made the difference this time. dawg Dec 2016 #48
Actually agree with this BumRushDaShow Dec 2016 #52
It's the Electorate's fault that a candidate didn't win? TransitJohn Dec 2016 #61
Uh, yeah. n/t NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #62
Brilliant. TransitJohn Dec 2016 #63
It has absolutely nothing to do with trust. NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #66
A huge section of America is into reality shows marlakay Dec 2016 #67
K&R! DemonGoddess Dec 2016 #70
We had a primary candidate who was aggressively pulling in formerly disconnected voters hellofromreddit Dec 2016 #73
Post removed Post removed Dec 2016 #74
And yet Hillary still got millions more votes than he did and handily won the GE by over 3 million JTFrog Dec 2016 #88
What are you even talking about? hellofromreddit Dec 2016 #94
You are looking at the FUV as if it isn't a symptom of something systemic. JCanete Dec 2016 #75
she lost due to the electoral college treestar Dec 2016 #76
I know very different "average voters" than the ones you described. democrank Dec 2016 #77
Simply fed up my ass. JTFrog Dec 2016 #80
I didnt use the word "all", since I prefer "some" or "many" democrank Dec 2016 #84
DU rec... SidDithers Dec 2016 #78
!!!!! BumRushDaShow Dec 2016 #90
Nope. You can't dismiss the effect of three decades of right-wing mythology. Orsino Dec 2016 #81
Great post Gothmog Dec 2016 #86
I find it hard to believe, but I partially agree with you. Exilednight Dec 2016 #87
Hillary Clinton lost because people wanted an 'outsider' this election, and Hillary is perceived,.. aidbo Dec 2016 #95
Were these same voters NeoConsSuck Dec 2016 #96
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