2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: I'd love it if the JPR returnees... [View all]stevenleser
(32,886 posts)Bernie does not have the support in the Demographics he needs to contest PA, VA, NC, SC, GA or FL. Hillary trounced him in those states in the primary. Look up the results.
Hillary even with the better support lost all of those states to Trump except VA which she barely won. With that, we can easily conclude Bernie would have also lost VA.
With that being the case, Trump would have 270+ EVs against Bernie and would have beaten him as well.
But its worse than that. If you understand Presidential elections at all, you know that a state that you cannot contest means that your opponent can reallocate resources, time, money, etc. that would have otherwise needed to be spent on that state elsewhere. That means every other swing state. He wouldn't have needed it, but he would likely have won Michigan and Wisconsin against Bernie as well, and possibly other swing states.