Now the DNC can PRIMARY Kyrsten Sinema...

[CaliforniaHoustonian]

... in her next election cycle.

[mucifer]

1. I don't understand. she left the party. she isn't a democrat. How do you primary an independent?

[CaliforniaHoustonian]

2. How to word it...

...?.

[hlthe2b]

5. Bernie has re-registed as Dem to run in Democratic Presidential Primaries so

I assume Sinema could theoretically do the same in AZ to run for Senate if she so chose. AZ voters seem less wedded to the party (1/3 are unaffiliated) so that clearly is why she feels free to do that. Switching party affiliation is apparently quite easy to do in AZ and their primaries are only semi-closed, which allows for previously unaffiliated cross-over voters.

Or, she can just run as an Independent in the General election, seeking to weaken Gallegos or whoever does win the Dem primary while siphoning off quite a few R votes as well.

[brush]

3. No need to now as she's no longer a Democrat.

It complicates the '24 race as will she take more votes from us Democrats or from republicans?

IMO, if she runs, she won't get elected either way. Dems won't vote for her and republicans will vote for real republican instead of a repub lite.

[hlthe2b]

7. Arizona has so many non-affiliated voters that that is likely what she is counting on.

At least a third of AZ voters are non-affiliated.

[brush]

12. Sinema and Kelly both won as Dems. And Kelly just got re-elected...

Last edited Fri Dec 9, 2022, 09:37 AM - Edit history (1)

as a Democrat so IMO she will lose in '24 as Dems won't vote for her and republs will vote for a real republican rather than a repub lite or an Indy.

IMO she just miscalculated with this attention whore move that seems timed to spite Democrats just when we are racking up victories.

She's another Tulsi Gabbard and we know what happened to her.

[Emile]

13. +1

[allegorical oracle]

18. +++++

[hlthe2b]

20. I think she will too. I'm just trying to analyze her strategy, ok?

and, yes, splitting the Dem vote could hurt us in AZ

[brush]

24. She's no longer a Dem so she won't split our voutes.

Running as an Independent she'll take votes from us and republicans as repubs will rather vote for a real republican rather than a repub lite or an Indy.

It complicates the '24 AZ Senate race, it'll depend on who she takes more votes from, us of the repubs.

[hlthe2b]

26. Dems can't win in AZ in the General without cross-over Independents (33% PLUS)

of the electorate. So, yeah, she CAN split the vote. Maybe less Dems than R's, but it is still a risk. Right now, the R's are so are so damned extreme in AZ that we benefit but Gallegos is pretty far left, so time will tell...

And in truth, the thought that this is just prelude to her not running but becoming a well padded lobbyist seems a reasonable possibility.

[brush]

27. How do you explain Kelly just getting re-elected?

And Hobbs beating Kari Lake? There were obviously cross-over votes in those races/

[hlthe2b]

28. The cross-over Independents of which I have been speaking. Matter of math.

Colorado likewise has a very large percentage of unaffiliated voters (35%). They too have allowed us to turn the state blue. Having been involved in this effort for nearly two decades, I can assure you that the Dems reach out intensely to the unaffiliated as well.

If John Hickenlooper decided to go Indie (as a very unlikely example), he'd surely split the vote for us as well, no matter who we put forward as the Democratic candidate and even if that candidate was unopposed in a primary.

[brush]

29. Huh? There were obviously cross-over Indy votes for...

Kelly and Hobbs to win in AZ, right?

[hlthe2b]

30. That is exactly what I am saying. Where did we get confused?

But there was not an incumbent Senatorial candidate running as an Indie in that case against the Democrat (and the Republican).

[brush]

31. She's unpopular in the state. She won't win but will take votes from...

both Dems and repubs as repubs would rather vote for a real repub and not a repub lite of Indy,

And Democrats are so pissed at her she won't get Dem votes. It'll be which party gets out their votes best, and it's been Dems winning big in AZ...gov, senate, sec'y of state.

It's no longer a red state in the big counties, which is where the votes are (see Lari Lake fail in Maricopa and Pima).

[hlthe2b]

32. We seem to be contually agreeing, just phrasing differently...

But, somedays communication is like that...

[Walleye]

4. I get the feeling she's not gonna run again. She's feathering her nest now

[Bucky]

23. Maybe she'll run in that new Andrew Yang/Christy Todd Whitman moderate party

[Raven123]

6. Does Arizona require a general election decided by 50+1 or a plurality?

[hlthe2b]

8. Plurality per ballotpedia

[Raven123]

10. Thank you

[Emile]

9. Pretty hard for democrats to primary an independent?

[hlthe2b]

11. You do know how easy to (the precedence for) re-registering prior to a partisan primary

don't you? See Bernie in 2016 and 2020. I doubt she would do so, but it is conceivable given AZ's system--if for no other reason than to prevent a 3-way in the general. See my post upstream #5 and #7.

[Emile]

16. See post #12

[hlthe2b]

21. see post #20

[DFW]

37. She loses her Senate seat in 2024 if she runs in a 3 way race. It would go R.

She has two years to prove that she is still one of us in all but name. In that time, she can either solidify support for another term, or give a pretty clear clue that she isn't interested in one.

If she decides to go for another term, I wonder on what platform? "I'm not one of either of them?" I don't think that will be enough. Everybody knows what she is against. What is she FOR?? She has been there on a few social issues, not there on economic issues, and a ghost on party unity.

"Vote for me just because I'm independent!" is a rather weak slogan.

[hlthe2b]

39. I think she'd lose in a 3-way too. Thus her strategy may be to try to convince DEMS

not to back a Dem in the race. Something they'd do for a Bernie Sanders or an Angus King, but I highly doubt that would be the case for her--even if she voted 100% with Dems in the meantime. And, even if the party didn't fully $$$ support a candidate, that doesn't mean there won't be those who decide to run.

So, unless her ultimate intent is merely to hedge her bets-- eliminating a direct primary challenge while considering NOT running (beyond a direct sprint to K-Street), I think she is sunk.

[tishaLA]

14. Can Gallego win?

I like him a lot, but I'd he too progressive for AZ and won't be able to get votes from independents?

I'd like to think we're building our ground game, especially among AZ repubs, but it's going to take work, money, and a great campaign operation

[dem4decades]

19. The question is can he win a three-way race. She sucks.

[Thrill]

25. Can you say Senator Kari Lake?

[dem4decades]

36. I thought she was going to be Trump's VP?

[Polybius]

40. Some states allow you to run for President/VP while running for the Senate

Not sure if AZ is one of them.

[Omnipresent]

15. And finally remove the thorn from our side.

[CaliforniaHoustonian]

35. Exactly

!

[brooklynite]

17. No, because she won't be in the Primary...

However, there will now be a likely three-way General Election.

[jcgoldie]

22. You have it backwards

They were already going to primary her, she saw the writing on the wall. This way she can stand as an incumbent in the general election without winning a Democratic primary (which she wasn't going to win anyway given her actions of the past two years.)

[Demsrule86]

33. And when she runs as an independent then what? She was already facing a primary.

[mcar]

34. DNC can't primary an independent

She seems to be doing this to avoid just that.

[Zeitghost]

38. The exact opposite actually

Had she stayed and run again as a Dem, she could be attacked in the primary from the left.

Now if she runs she can split the vote on the left and possibly grab independents and moderate Republicans.

It's not a high % move, but it makes sense given her current position.

[sarisataka]

41. I weep