General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWill Sinema running as an Independent in 2024 help or hurt the Democrat?
32 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited | |
It will help the Democrat by taking more votes from the Republican candidate than the Democratic candidate. | |
4 (13%) |
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It will hurt the Democrat by taking more votes from the Democratic candidate than the Republican candidate. | |
22 (69%) |
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Somethine else (state below) | |
6 (19%) |
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0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided. | |
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Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll |
Amishman
(5,824 posts)All depends on who else is on the ballot and how Sinema handles the next two years.
Strange thing is I think the more closely she maintains ties to our party in the interim, the more the split might hurt us in 2024. Being toxic to our interests would help her with the Pubs (syphoning more votes from them), and hurt her standing with our supporters.
ColinC
(10,875 posts)Polybius
(18,094 posts)We're fooling ourselves if we think that she'll take more votes away from them than us.
ColinC
(10,875 posts)The vast majority of Democrats see her as a spoiler to historic democratic legislation and want her gone. Whereas more republicans see her favorably for hindering key Democratic legislation.
Polybius
(18,094 posts)I guess time will tell.
ColinC
(10,875 posts)Outside of that possibility, I might be less optimistic.
Celerity
(46,516 posts)qazplm135
(7,509 posts)Would be harder regardless of Sinema.
But I'd argue a sane Republican reduces Sinema's voting slice even further.
What's her appeal in that scenario?
Celerity
(46,516 posts)We will have a Dem primary and a Dem candidate. We will not just capitulate and not run someone.
Even if we did that (not run a Dem), she will lose to the Rethug. She will never get enough votes to defeat that Rethug.
Mr.Bill
(24,827 posts)Experienced campaigner.
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,346 posts)George Wallace hurt Nixon and John Anderson and Ralph Nader hurt Jimny Carter and Al Gore. John Kelly is a dream candidate and won by five points. It's not as if we have a huge buffer.
ColinC
(10,875 posts)She established she favors giving historic wins to the GOP by blocking Dem legislation which is probably bigger than confirming judges and voting 90% with Democrats in the eyes of voters -since it gets more attention.
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,346 posts)There is no disputing which side of that war Kyrsten Sinema is on.
qazplm135
(7,509 posts)Over an actual Democrat??
The concern would be losing more independents to her than Republicans lose to her, not losing Democrats.
I predict she actually gets few votes. People want to vote for a winner, and she can't win a three-way race.
Polybius
(18,094 posts)We're the hard core base of the Party. But she could get 20% in AZ.
DemocratSinceBirth
(100,346 posts)I don't like her showboating and apostasy but I like the seat more.
qazplm135
(7,509 posts)At some point she's going to become nonviable and at that point her numbers will sink like a stone.
Let's pretend I loved her, thought she was the best politician ever.
Once I saw that she is running a distant third I'm not voting for her.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)qazplm135
(7,509 posts)Still primarily vote D or R.
Gidney N Cloyd
(19,847 posts)lees1975
(6,027 posts)qazplm135
(7,509 posts)She was not caucusing with Republicans.
She said she is keeping her Dem subcommittee chairs and that only happens if she's caucusing with Dems.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)She will retire to be a lobbyist.
ColinC
(10,875 posts)KarenS
(4,666 posts)dsc
(52,664 posts)we won the Sec of State race, against a certifiable loon, by only 5, Lake lost by less than 1. Sinema would take more than that.
jcgoldie
(12,046 posts)I think there are way too many variables at this time to predict the answer. 36% of AZ voters identify as independents. Whoever wins there needs a majority of them. Some in other threads have estimated that many are "right leaning"... they obviously haven't been right leaning far enough in the past two cycles to help Maga candidates win... so a lot probably depends on whether republicans pick another wingnut candidate in their primary. I don't see any reason to assume she would siphon independent votes disproportionately from the democratic candidate.
People also dont seem to be considering that there could be quite a few right leaning independents who held there nose and voted maga because they couldnt bring themselves to vote dem
but may go for an independent thus siphoning gop votes as well.
BlueTsunami2018
(4,039 posts)And she knows we cant risk a fascist taking the seat by going after her in the general. Its diabolical but smart.
Earl_from_PA
(128 posts)Six weeks is a lifetime in politics. Let alone 23 months. Too much can, and will happen between now and Nov 2024.
LAS14
(14,740 posts)Celerity
(46,516 posts)challenge) Dems start doing what Sinema is doing (IF she runs for re-election) and simply declare themselves indies, and dare us to oppose them, we are fucked. I can see some of the No Labels/Problem Solvers types trying this. Or, on the other end of the spectrum, a DSA type like Bush or Tlaib, if they think that a more moderate type Dem challenger is too strong for their liking.
It is blackmail via political suicide bomber threat. It is a way of blowing up the entire primary system of accountability.
She cannot be allowed to hijack the process and try and usurp the seat IF that is her plan.
Bernie runs in the Dem primaries to avoid this type of very thing.
LAS14
(14,740 posts)Celerity
(46,516 posts)GoodRaisin
(9,602 posts)If we run a democrat and the democrat and Sinema cancel each other out and we end up with a republican? I dont like her either but dont want to lose the majority.
Celerity
(46,516 posts)to stand down and retire at the end of her term, or try and run in the Dem primary and accept the results.
She is trying to play political suicide bomber blackmail to avoid a primary loss. That destroys accountability that comes from a Dem primary. It sets a horrid example that others may well try to duplicate.
qazplm135
(7,509 posts)And it's what she's hoping for.
Fiendish Thingy
(18,659 posts)Whether it will help or hurt the Dem nominee remains to be seen.
But it will certainly spell the end of her reign of chaos and obstruction.
GreenWave
(9,310 posts)A lot can happen in the next 18 months. Jack Smith to investigate Arizona for attempted fake electors. Leave no stones unturned I say.
48656c6c6f20
(7,638 posts)The GOP has decided to take the success of Herschel campaign and run either a werewolf, vampire, or a toaster. Or maybe that bull that wants to jump the fence and impregnate cows for abortions. Not sure.
FlyingPiggy
(3,736 posts)Dems are DONE DONE DONE w her and she knows it. She will McSallied in 2024. If anything, I think this is great mews. I think she will pull the gop indies from the gop. And as in independent, I HIGHLY doubt she will have a chance up against the Democratic nominee. MY burning question is: who will we put up for that senatorial race?
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)Simena has an approx. 37% approval rating in Arizona, which tracks only slightly higher than the percentage of Independents.
If she can hold that percentage, she would almost certainly win. The other likelihood is that the Republicans flip the seat.
It is highly unlikely the Democrats can win a three-way race with Sinema making a run.
And trust me, I'm not happy to reach such a conclusion. But, math.
qazplm135
(7,509 posts)So your math is based on a very simplistic poll of favorability numbers two years out from a three way election
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)Nothing I said suggests that Sinema has a "lock" on those votes.
But there are a lot of people in Arizona who are not Democrats. If she draws big numbers from Independants, and draws some votes from Democrats and Republicans, she has a path to victory.
In contrast, with her in the race, it is hard to see a path for Democrats.
qazplm135
(7,509 posts)Numbers from independents.
1. She is underwater with independents just like with Dems and Reps. She's unfavorable to every group.
2. Most independents still vote primarily D or R. Often they are Indy not because they are moderates but because they weren't happy with something their former party was or wasn't doing.
3. The number of true moderates willing to vote third party is truly small.
4. When it becomes clear that she's only going to be a spoiler candidate and can't win, people will readjust to vote for one party or the other or stay home rather than vote for her just to be a spoiler unless they already weren't going to vote for one of the other candidates anyways. There are going to be precious few voters that would vote for Gallego if Sinema wasn't running. Probably same for say Kari Lake if she runs for example.
If she had a positive rating among independents or at some point is able to manufacture one between now and election time then maybe I'll reassess my thoughts.
But as it stands now, she is going to be looked at as Democrat lite. She will still caucus with us and she will still vote for our judges. So folks who want a Dem will just vote for the actual Dem running, and folks that don't will vote for the Rep running.
Her only path to victory is if both the D and R candidates are completely unpalatable and I don't think Gallego will qualify as that for most voters. The Republican they nominate stands a large chance of being someone crazy.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)However, I think Sinema will draw a lot more support from Independents than you seem to believe. She is a sitting Senator--one who is unpopular in our party (and for good reason)--but for independents in independent-friendly Arizona? I think she draws a lot of votes.
Perhaps not enough to win a three way race to win, but enough to ensure that Democrats lose.
In a 3 way plurality contest, one doesn't need to be "favorable" to win, or to tip the balance of a race.
This will be a presidential election year, I doubt voters stay home.
And if it becomes clear that Sinema would draw enough votes that a Republican looks like the clear winner, then Gallego (or other nominee) could start to be viewed as "the spoiler" and the shift could go her way. People holding their noses out of "pragmatism." I think many people might go for someone who generally votes with Democrats (and who votes for our leaders) over a Republican.
It will be interesting to see what appears to happen to her support among registered independents/others.
qazplm135
(7,509 posts)She's underwater with independents in AZ right now. They don't like her either.
Her only role is as spoiler and her only hope is fear of that causing Dems to literally cancel their own primary, but that's not going to happen.
Dems absolutely hate her so no Gallego is not going to look like a spoiler because at worst he gets the vast majority of Dems and Dem leaning independents just like the Republican will get the vast majority of Republicans and Republican leaning independents.
She will get what's left, which won't be much.
Can she spoil a close race? Sure. That's the best she can do though.
I expect initial polling might give her an apex of 15-20 percent but at some point if people see she's going to swing the election to one of the other two candidates but otherwise has no path,.her support will drop.
She's bluffing with pocket sevens. Sure, she could win, but it's unlikely.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)Or that you can't draw enough votes to deny Democrats a win.
We agree, she can spoil a close race. Hard to imagine a Democrat winning with her in the race.
That's her "super-power."
She'd likely be finished otherwise, so her odds just improved (and hate to say it).
qazplm135
(7,509 posts)Sure her odds as a Dem we're zero because she'd lose in the primary and you can't run Indy if you lose a primary in AZ so yeah this improves them... from zero.
Any supposition that she will get a large chunk of independents is not yet supported by any evidence.
Underwater means she doesn't start with some great adorations by independents. It means the majority of them don't view her favorably and are more likely to vote their party because again most independents still strongly trend towards one of the two parties.
It's not the 80s anymore where partisanship is muddled and there's truly a large middle that swing votes. Those days are gone.
And if a crazy is on the other side she could as easily draw Republican votes or voters who otherwise wouldn't vote either way or vote Libertarian since they wouldn't want to vote Dem either.
Again, any argument she gets a meaningful percentage or pulls more from Dems is fear based not fact based, at least not yet.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)We both understand the biggest risk (and greatest likelihood) is that she tilts the race to the GOP.
Those are some significant points of agreement, and not good news for Democrats.
I guess where we differ is whether she can attract enough support for independent-minded Arizonans to make Democrats nervous enough when polls show a Republican win, that many hold their noses and vote for her.
Hard to know how the dynamics play out at this juncture.
I'd love for there to be a non-factor who draws no support. But that's not what my politcal judgement leads me to conclude in this moment.
qazplm135
(7,509 posts)That's the greatest likelihood, not remotely.
I think the greatest likelihood is she's without a political home or any hope of winning and no one will have any interest in voting for her.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)And you also suggested the greatest likelihood is that she tilts a 3 way race to the GOP, correct?
These are the point where I said we are in agreement, while stipulating I suspect she will draw more votes that you seem to believe will be the case.
So I'm confused about what "that" you are referring to when you say: That's [not] the greatest likelihood?
qazplm135
(7,509 posts)I said she improved her odds from zero. I do the same thing when I buy a lottery ticket.
I said it was the best she can do, which is not the same as saying it's the greatest likelihood.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)You said the greatest likelihood with Sinema being in a 3 way race was that the election would tip to the Republicans, no?
qazplm135
(7,509 posts)Where you specifically think I said that. And why do you keep asking me that when I've bow told you a nauseatingly number of times that I am not saying that?
What more do you need me to say before you understand?
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)You said: Can she spoil a close race? Sure.
That's my point, entirely.
qazplm135
(7,509 posts)How you took something being possible and morphed it into greatest likelihood I have no idea but I'm done with this conversation.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)what you are objecting to and I'm the one who's causing exasperation here?
Good grief, is right!
FlyingPiggy
(3,736 posts)Never appeared. Clearly math doesnt always give you the full picture. I see A LOT of resentment towards Sinema from AZ dems. And clearly she does too. But we shall see
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)I have no doubts abouts Sinema's difficulties with AZ Democrats--which is precisely why she made this "chess-move."
This is her best strategy to win re-election. I think it also dooms our odds of having a Democrat win the seat.
Not a happiness-making scenarios as I see it.
FlyingPiggy
(3,736 posts)I may be too optimistic, but I (hope) think this will ultimately be a blessing in disguise. If anything, I think she will splinter the Republican vote. Not ours.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)vote and picking of a few Republican ones.
I would not count on Sinema splintering the Republican vote and having Democrats pull in huge numbers of independents as a winning strategy.
And I hope to be wrong in that estimation. I really do.
lees1975
(6,027 posts)especially not as an Independent who is not popular among Democrats at all. If Democrats run a strong candidate like Rueben Gallego or Greg Stanton, or someone like Regina Romero, who is considered the potential Democratic successor to Raul Grijalva, that 37% is not likely to hold. There's always the chance, especially in Arizona, that Republicans will run another extremist lunatic like Blake Masters, and make it an easy choice.
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)There is nothing I'd like to see more than having a solid Democrat elected to that seat.
I felt fairly confident of that prior to Sinema's move. I think a strong challenger whould have given her a beat-down in a Democratic primary.
This 3 way race scenario in a state full of so many independent voters worries me.
We will see.
Voltaire2
(14,781 posts)candidate. If instead the analysis is that she hurts the Republican candidate, she will decide to spend more time with her family.
This is not a big mystery.
VGNonly
(7,754 posts)to primary her?
Just A Box Of Rain
(5,104 posts)Cha
(305,674 posts)how the next two years go.
And, I'm not clairvoyant.
Raine
(30,616 posts)Angleae
(4,644 posts)Lobbyist or analyst? That's the only thing she'll be doing after this term.
mike_c
(36,356 posts)...and what Sinema does between now and then. I do think she starts with two strikes just for leaving the Senate democrats. I mean, there aren't many Arizona dems who'll be happy with her for that. She will likely pull votes from a republican candidate if the Arizona repubs nominate another clown. I think the reality is that if she runs as an independent she'll absorb more republican votes than democratic if she absorbs any at all. She herself doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell-- she'll be a spoiler for someone and little else. Being an incumbent who switched political affiliation in mid-term is probably the only thing that will get her any attention as an independent.
lees1975
(6,027 posts)they will get the seat back.
A publicity stunt like this, days after the Democrats confirm a 51-49 majority in the house, will weaken her ability to draw votes from Arizona's Democrats who are not as moderate as she thinks they are. This is a betrayal of every Democrat who voted for her.
Dave says
(4,957 posts)Even if terrible for Arizona, terrible for America. (But, surely to her, that does not matter.)
If she stayed in the party she risked being primaried out of power (and thus off her grift). If she jumped to the Republican Party shed be a nobody (in that party) and lose her leverage. By declaring herself independent she increases the odds that we dont offer up a good candidate to run against her and, thereby, risk losing the seat to an out-and-out Republican. Machiavelli simple-Sinema, a right of center moderate, thinks this is the best way to preserve her grift.
qazplm135
(7,509 posts)She doesn't have any other option left
Celerity
(46,516 posts)use a gambit to bypass an almost certain primary defeat.
If we cave into this, then other Dems who are fearful of a primary challenge will do the same thing. That will help destroy accountability within our party and render the primary process a sham.
It is the political equivalent of a person pulling the pin on a grenade and saying they will blow us all up if we dare to challenge their move and hold a Dem primary and run against them.
lindysalsagal
(22,402 posts)These days. She might be a wash and pull from both?
Prairie_Seagull
(3,811 posts)early days.