(President) Biden Might Have Already Lost Iowa and New Hampshire. Here's Why.

[LudwigPastorius]

https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-iowa-new-hampshire-primary-dnc-rules-2023-4

One of Biden's challengers may be poised to secure the first electoral contests of the season, putting the incumbent president at risk of losing early state nominations to lesser-known candidates, NBC News reported.

The new primary calendar ratified by the Democratic National Committee – at Biden's request – downgraded Iowa and New Hampshire from their longstanding positions as the first electoral hoorahs of the primary season. As a result, candidates are prohibited from campaigning — or even adding their names to the ballot — in any state that refuses to adhere to the calendar.

Both Iowa and New Hampshire, who have long enjoyed outsized influence as early-voting states, plan to buck the DNC rules and hold their contests early anyway.

That means that if Biden intends to follow his own rules, he would have to forfeit the two contests, clearing the way for Democratic challengers like Marianne Williamson, a self-help author, or Robert Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer best known these days for his anti-vaccine stance. Both have said they would accept the DNC's penalties for campaigning out of turn, NBC News reported.

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This is meaningless in the actual race for the nomination, BUT the refusal of Iowa and New Hampshire to follow the new primary schedule will allow the enemy to put a bad spin on the start of the president's reelection campaign.

Personally, I don't want to see RFK, jr. or Williamson win any delegates. The Democratic party doesn't need the woo woo anti-vaccination associations that would bring.

[Srkdqltr]

1. I'm not all that well versed on the politics but its 18 months till the election.

[H2O Man]

2. I think that President Biden

will win every primary contest. I don't think there is any chance of him not doing so, without having to add to his schedule or have his campaign invest a penny more than if he were unopposed. But we can be certain that the media, including sources like this one, will try to capitalize on nonsense such as this in the months to come.

[LudwigPastorius]

4. I just hope there are no arcane write-in vote rules that would prevent him from taking these states.

[H2O Man]

7. Write-in votes

are a tiny minority of a little fringe of voters, especially so in primaries. There is a significantly larger risk of people being injured by televisions raining down from the sky on primary days, having an impact on the vote totals.

[LudwigPastorius]

9. Yes, but if Iowa jumps its place in line, candidates are prohibited from putting their names...

on the ballot.

So, I WANT Iowa Democrats to write in Joe Biden.

[H2O Man]

10. They will.

There are no television storms in the forecast. Reality will hold.

[yourout]

3. Primaries should be broken up into six regions that rotate in order.

We have such a screwed up election process with the way we do primaries and the fact that we have an electoral college.

[LudwigPastorius]

6. I agree.

"Because we've always done it this way" is a crappy reason to do anything.

I applaud the president for pushing the DNC to shake up the state voting order for the 2024 primaries

Ultimately, a rotating system would be the fairest long term option.

[Thunderbeast]

16. Absolutely!

Even though when you ask a resident of Iowa or New Hampshire, they pull this crap out of their ass that they "deserve" this outsized influence because they are the "real" Americans.

Can you say "White Privilege"?

[Seasider]

5. Not sure about NH no way Iowa goes for RFK Jr or Williamson.

[wnylib]

12. If they are the only Dems on the ballot,

then one of them will win.

If I understand the OP correctly, Iowa and New Hampshire are ignoring the new order of states for the primaries. Both RFK Jr and Williamson are also ignoring it. So the two states will hold their primaries early, as usual, but Biden's name will not be on the ballot due to new Dem rules. But Kennedy's and Wilkiamson's names will be there. So one will win the Dem primary in those states.

It won't matter in the long run, regarding the nomination. Biden will win, hands down.

Kennedy and Williamson know that they don't have a chance of winning the nomination. They are doing more for Republicans than for Dems. Kennedy esprcially, who has been encouraged to run by Bannon. The idea is to sow division among Dems. Most people don't know how wacky Robert Kennedy Jr's ideas are, not just on vaccines, but on bizarre conspiracy theories that he promotes. They recognize the name. They have positive feelings about RFK Sr. People who think that Joe is too old, will consider Robert Jr. Some will sulk and refuse to vote if their candidate does not win the primary. And that's what Kennedy and Williamson want.

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. Biden won't lose IA and NH - those states will forfeit their delegates

They might hold primaries, but the DNC will not recognize any delegates from those states at the convention.

Biden and the DNC must play hardball to get those states to comply with the party rules (yes, I know the GOP has passed laws requiring they go first, but there must be workarounds that don’t involve the state election system).

[PortTack]

13. ☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️

[Vinca]

11. I didn't realize their names won't be on the ballot at all. That's kind of dumb.

[Midwestern Democrat]

14. I was completely against making South Carolina the first primary state; obviously, I want Biden to

win the nomination, but if Kennedy's and Williamson's campaigns can play a part in ending the South Carolina experiment without harming Biden, I'd be fine with it.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

15. The DNC can strip New Hampshire and Iowa of their delegates

Delegates are the only things that matter and the DNC will strip Iowa and New Hampshire of any delegates if they break DNC rules. No one will care what tow 90+% white states do if these are not official contests where there are delegates at risk. Biden lost both of these states in 2020 and won the nomination easily