Realistically, the election is probably gonna be decided by about 250,000 voters

[BWdem4life]

(less than a tenth of a percent of the population). Sad, but probably true.

If Biden can hang onto MI, WI and PA then it's not gonna matter what else happens. NV will probably stay blue as it has since 2008. AZ and GA could both go red, Biden could fail to pick up NC, and he would still have 276 EV (six more than he needs).

The only edge case scenario with the above would be if NE changed to winner-take-all without ME doing the same, and then Biden somehow lost NV. That would set up a 269-269 tie; but it's so unlikely that I feel like I just wasted a paragraph even bringing it up.

For those still concerned about the Green Party, their numbers plummeted in 2020 in MI, WI and PA. It's my pet theory that a lot of people voted for Jill Stein in 2016 just to try and prove (perhaps to themselves?) that they weren't misogynists for not voting Hillary. Still bitter? I don't blame you, but it's over and done.

Whatever the reason for 2016, I don't see much impetus for any kind of comeback for the Green Party this time around... knock on wood.

So anyway, that's my thinking. MI, WI and PA stay with us, and we'll be good to go.

Polls are useless and only time will tell, but I have a lot of hope because 2016 was the only time we lost ANY of those three states since 1988 - and that year there was an incumbent Republican. This time it's an incumbent Democrat. 2016 was a freak aberration and I strongly doubt it will happen again this year.

Bottom line, of course we cannot afford any kind of complacency, and of course we also need to take back the House and keep the Senate -- but I do not believe we should be losing as much sleep as some of us have been since last Thursday night.

[Girard442]

1. Or nine.

[Fiendish Thingy]

2. Probably fewer than that

2020 was decided by 44,000 votes in three states.

2016 was decided by about 80,000 votes in 3 states.

[ITAL]

4. I'm not sure the OP meant the margin would be 250 thousand

Just that 250 thousand people who are swing voters, or squishy members of one of the two parties over three or four states, are the deciders. So if 150 thousand of them go for Biden and 100 thousand go for Trump, the winning margin might be 50K, but it was still that 250K people who decided the election.

That might be a charitable reading, but that's what I thought they meant.

[BWdem4life]

6. Well, I was just counting the votes by which Biden won PA, MI and WI

80,555 PA, 154,188 MI, 20,682 WI, 255,425 total. But that's actually 127,713 voters who could each swing the other way to cause Biden to lose all 3 states.

But they won't. I hope. Wisconsin is the biggest threat - lose WI, AZ and GA without picking up NC and it's bye bye democracy.

Wisconsin, we need you. Badly.

[BWdem4life]

5. Wisconsin is the weakest link among the three states we must carry.

But I'm hoping the power of incumbency will carry it for us.

[Lovie777]

3. Better yet.....................

the GQP know that they are losers and that's why their polling sucks. I have noticed that after the disastrous debate per corporate media, the focus groups basically were pro Biden and neg shithole. Corporate media shut that down quickly and showed polls neg of Biden re age and mental health.

And, corporate media thru their crappy polls show the same shit that shithole is ahead by 2 or more and he still leads in the key states. If shithole won the debate and got a bump corporate media would have blanket the airwaves, but instead they are still blanketing the air waves with "old and demitted" Biden.

And the immunity thing, as citizens of the USA, we may dislike or hate each other because of our beliefs, but in the long run, don't fuck with our "freedom".

[betsuni]

7. Then everyone can stop blaming Democrats for something they have no control over.

"Yes, we have to 'move on' -- if that means we need to work on creating a better future. But if it means that we should stop dissecting, analyzing, and critiquing how the disaster of 2016 happened, I don't agree. The fact is we should be 'relitigating' the past all the time. It's called examining history. It's called exposing mythology and unearthing truth. It's called speaking truth to the power that was, and that still, unfortunately, is. So, media pundits: stop shutting up those of us 'relitigating' the election. Be worthy of your profession. It's not your job to decide when the past is a closed book. It's not your job to recycle lazy narratives. Do your job, even if it means owning your own failures." -- Susan Bordo

Nothing is "over and done." Don't tell us what to do.