Allan Lichtman, creator of 13 Keys to White House, makes election prediction update

[wordstroken]

Harris vs Trump! Prediction Professor Explains Which Way the Election is Leaning with Kamala Harris

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[Ocelot II]

1. So what is it? How about a summary?

[wordstroken]

7. Did this YouTube video come through okay?

I’m still new at this. If the YT video didn’t come through, please let me know how to do it.

Thanks.
wordstroken

[obamanut2012]

11. We are not clicking links like this -- summarize

[wordstroken]

17. In this video, Lichtman goes through his prediction model and explains why he thinks Kamala is likely to win.

He does say that it’s not his final prediction.

Please bear with me. I’m still new at this. If the YouTube video didn’t come through correctly, please help me learn to do it right.

Thanks.
wordstroken

[hlthe2b]

28. You are learning and welcome! A lot of us bemoan the replacement of "discussion" with videos sans any summary...

It has sort of reached a boiling point. Many here who frequently post videos have adapted and included a paragraph or so of summary-- or when a written transcript is available, cut and pasted that for inclusion.

Some of us can't watch videos when at work (or frankly don't want to), so including some summary will still move along the discussion and limit the "crankiness." The latter is not unjustified, though when links to sites that are not well known are posted since quite a few of us have fallen victim to malware or other problem issues.

Welcome again and don't let it dissuade you. Oh, and the video came through fine.

[LiberalFighter]

31. I'm one of those that don't want to watch videos on my phone.

Rather read. Allows me to reread something. While a video is difficult to go back to a spot.

[hlthe2b]

32. I'm with you. My preference too. I am a very fast reader. Videos are an unnecessary waste of time to convey

the same info. Sometimes, though complex data might be better conveyed that way. They still need to be concise though!

[LiberalFighter]

38. Too much rambling or repeating with those type of videos

[canetoad]

47. It's a fourteen minute video

I agree with you. Words on paper or screen.

[wordstroken]

33. Thank you so much for taking the time to explain, hlthe2b.

Your words are reassuring.


I’ll get the hang of it soon.

Should I have posted in “Videos” instead of “General Discussion”?

[hlthe2b]

34. Either (or on an important issue like this, both) would be fine.

[wordstroken]

35. Thanks.

[femmedem]

29. Thanks, wordstroken.

I appreciate the video, the summary, and your willingness to share the video even though you were new at it. You did great.

[wordstroken]

30. Thank you, femmedem.

[Bettie]

36. Thanks for the summary

when I post a video, I tend to post a summary as well as the link. Some people just like the quick version!

Welcome to DU.

[wordstroken]

37. Thanks, Bettie.

Will definitely post a clear and concise summary with videos from now on.

[carpetbagger]

48. Thanks.

I'm one of those old fossils who still reads. Lichtman is entertaining, like one of those TV clairvoyants who see very malleable and mushy things.

[moonscape]

16. Several keys not locked in (social unrest,

3rd party candidate w/ 10% polling, can’t remember 3rd) but likely in Harris column. He says something would have to go very wrong for one of the Harris keys to turn in their favor.

Bottom line, right now if ‘likely’ keys turn ‘certain’ we win.

[obamanut2012]

2. And? I'm not clicking on some link

[SocialDemocrat61]

3. Absolutely love Lichtman

Wish more would listen to him

[gab13by13]

8. He is a true blue Democrat but he appears to be wrong about this,

From Wiki:

"2024 presidential election
In the run-up to the 2024 presidential election in the United States, amidst widening calls by Democratic Party representatives, members, voters, and supporters for incumbent president Joe Biden to withdraw from the race in favor of another candidate with "better chances,"[31][32] Lichtman denounced that demand as a "foolish, destructive escapade," accusing "pundits and the media" of "pushing" the Dems into a losing choice. He added that "all" those calling for Biden's resignation have "zero track record" of predicting election outcomes.[33] By July 21, 2024, Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race, adding that he will serve out the remainder of his term.[34]"

Now he has amended his prediction I guess?

[SocialDemocrat61]

10. Yes

But elections are fluid so it’s reasonable to revise things in response.

[DoBW]

14. good answer... nt

[hlthe2b]

19. It would have only "killed Dem chances" if Biden had both been driven out and a contested nomination race occurred.

The latter did not occur, so the keys remain leaning towards Dems, but fluid with four unanswered as to which party benefits.

[OnDoutside]

39. He really hasn't changed his stance as he gives the incumbency key to Republicans. However, he gives the

contest key to Democrats because it was so swiftly done, that there was no contest from any other challenger. He still has 8 Harris keys to Trump's 5, currently.

[hlthe2b]

18. Yeah... This one is relatively short and gives a really concise overview compared to his others...

I'd give a simple answer but it is misleading to do so, but I'll try. Of the 13 keys, I'll just say that Harris/Dems remain in good shape but there are four yet to be answered as to which party they will favor and if we lose a couple of those then the prediction would be that R's prevail. He will give his final prediction after the convention.

[gab13by13]

4. I don't click on stuff either

click on the wrong site and end up getting spam for the rest of your life.

[wordstroken]

23. I hear you.

See post #17.

[CoopersDad]

50. I click on stuff, it's just a youtube but always good to post a summary.

Welcome to DU!

[wordstroken]

54. Thanks , I will.

[Jerry2144]

5. Summarize the video

Many people don’t watch videos. Tell us what he said

[hlthe2b]

20. I have done so in two of my thread responses. Just read the thread.

[wordstroken]

24. See post #17.

[NewHendoLib]

6. Please don't be lazy and post click bait. Post a summary.

[DoBW]

15. Post what you think is right, within the guide lines

[wordstroken]

25. See post #17.

[femmedem]

27. Hey, even with "please," that's unneccessary and unwelcoming to a DU member

who is trying to share information with us. Replies like that prevent DU from growing. I've seen at least three low post count, non-troll DUers quit the site because of snarky or judgmental replies in the last week or so.

You could say you don't like to click videos, or that you are interested in the information but would prefer to get your information via reading, if the poster has time to post a summary. There's no need to say someone is being lazy or that a video about Allan Lichtman's prediction is clickbait.

Videos are allowed. They are not required to have a summary, although many of us prefer them. Ordering or trying to shame someone into posting a summary is out of line, IMO.

[Chasing Dreams]

40. Thank you femmedem

It's interesting that someone like me -- here 20 years to get the most expansive set of progressive news updates directly from fellow DUers -- who rarely posts, is attacked or discounted simply because of low post totals.

Quite a few members said those of us who were in favor of Biden dropping out are trolls and elitists. Honestly, it's those members who discount anyone with a low post count who are the elitists.

[femmedem]

42. You're welcome. After reading blurplenurple's final post about a week ago

I vowed to stick up for posters with low post counts. I was so sad to see this poster go: https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=19204024

For what it's worth, as much as I love and admire Biden, in the middle of the debate I emailed my sister and said, "I don't see how he survives this." I'm grateful and relieved he made the choice to withdraw.

[CommonHumanity]

44. Agree 100%

Listen to femmedem she is 100% correct.

[usonian]

9. USA Today says yes. Spells out the keys.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/26/allen-lichtman-preliminary-presidential-prediction-harris-trump/74557674007/

Plus 8
Minus 5

[et tu]

12. ok i clicked

and usonian is correct from usa today and the video states the same~
ty for posting~

[sarchasm]

13. Lichtman predicts Harris will win

[hlthe2b]

21. Whoah. Not exactly. That is for the time being & four keys are fluid. FINAL assessment AFTER the convention.

[sarchasm]

49. Yes, sorry, he did say he hasn't made a prediction, but that a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose.

[honest.abe]

22. Wow.. doesn't take a genius to come up with that prediction.

About a week ago he said Dems were basically crazy to push Joe out. Then he said Joe should resign immediately. Sorry but I’m not impressed.

[TBF]

26. Interesting commentary, but does take several minutes to watch -

they pick Harris with the caveat that at least 4 keys are not really determined yet. He does say a lot would have to go wrong at this point for Harris to lose.

[usonian]

41. See post #9

Or just visit usatoday.
Full details.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/26/allen-lichtman-preliminary-presidential-prediction-harris-trump/74557674007/

[Wednesdays]

43. So, to sum up:

In his last prediction, with Biden in the race, Trump held 5 of the 13 keys. Biden would have had to lose at least two more keys to be in trouble.

Now, with Harris in the race, Trump holds 5 of the 13 keys. Harris would have to lose at least two more keys to be in trouble.

So, no change?

[ColinC]

51. No. Last prediction Biden held 9 of the 13 keys and would need to lose two to lose

Harris has 8 (because she is not an incumbent president) and would need to lose one to lose the election.

[ClimateHawk]

45. Thanks for posting the update.

I love the back and forth between Lichtman and his son.

[wordstroken]

46. IKR? I think that's fairly new.

[ColinC]

52. It's adorable lol

[ClimateHawk]

55. Not that recent

His YouTube channel has videos from 2023 with his son discussing politics.

[Zoomie1986]

53. A breakdown, as per the USA Today article linked above

Harris

Key 2 - No primary contest. LOL
Key 4 - No third party. Candidates, yes, but 3rd party organizations, none to take seriously.
Key 5 - Strong short-term economy. Is it perfect or strong for everyone? No. But it is a strong economy.
Key 6 - Strong long-term economy. See #5.
Key 7 - Major policy change. Democrats offer something new, the other side? LOL.
Key 8 - No social unrest. The Gaza protests simply aren't close to the scale of the 2020 BLM protests. BLM enjoyed broad support across demographic lines of race, class, gender and so on, and their events were more common and in far broader swaths of the country. Gaza? Not so much.
Key 9 - No scandal. The Rs will try to change this one, but I have a feeling scandal-mongering doesn't work for Team Psychopath as well as it works against them.
Key 13 - Uncharismatic challenger. The majority of people can't stand her opponent. That will not change.

Not in her favor:

Key 1 - Midterm gains. Dems lost ground in the House. She can't change this, although I could argue a case for giving it to her provisionally for how well the Democrats have done in special elections and ballot initiatives.
Key 3 - Incumbent seeking re-election. As long as she's VP, she's not the incumbent. We don't want this to change, really because it would mean Biden dying or becoming incapacitated enough to remove him from office. That would suck. He deserves a full term.
Key 10 - No foreign/military failure. Gaza & Ukraine still unresolved, so not winning...or losing. This one probably won't change.
Key 11 - Major foreign/military success. See #10.
Key 12 - Charismatic incumbent. If she demonstrates appeal across party lines, she gets this one. It's still too early to determine what appeal she will have across the board.

I think she goes into election day with 9 of these. That's nothing to sneeze at.