***POLL**** Marquette National Poll (A+): Harris 53 Trump 47

[democrattotheend]

Just released at 1 am.

New Marquette National poll (A+), July 24-Aug 1

🟦 Kamala Harris 53%
🟥 Donald Trump 47%

🟦 Kamala Harris 50%
🟥 Donald Trump 42%
🟨 Kennedy Jr. 6%

Link to tweet

I've been hesitant to get my hopes up until now, but this is Obama 2008 level. Which means maybe she has a fighting chance despite the GOP electoral advantage and the fact that Trump seems to do better than polls suggest...

[BannonsLiver]

1. Holy shit. Where can I donate to RFK Jr and his brain worm campaign?

[newdeal2]

25. He's accepting all animals, dead or alive

[RandySF]

2. The gold standard in Wi.

[The Magistrate]

3. Note The Worm-Brained Dog-Muncher Takes Two Votes From Trump For Each One Lost To Ms. Harris

[Beetwasher.]

7. "Worm-Brained Dog-Muncher"

You have outdone yourself, sir!

[LudwigPastorius]

13. Worm-Brained, Dog-Munching, Ursine Corpse Abuser

And, I have a feeling there will be more attributive adjective phrases to come.

[Grins]

4. Remember when some big conservative $$$$...

…suddenly showed up in Kennedy’s coffers, hoping to drain D votes…?

Oops!!!

[Cosmocat]

17. Yep

There has been mixed data on that when Joe was at the top of the ticket, but polling w Kamala seems to show he pulls from Trump fairly clearly.

I hope he stays in, and think he will based on his being insane at this point. But, I would also think Trump or some other deranged lunatic supporting him could find a way to buy him off.

[CTyankee]

6. How big was this poll?

because the larger the poll, the lower the MOE.

[Bucky]

8. not exactly

After a certain population size, increasing the sampling size won't increase your accuracy or confidence rate (repeatability of the results). Weirdly enough, if you get too big a sampling, it can actually reduce the accuracy of the sampling because retrieving data (survey responses) may introduce new accessibility variables that distort the random selection process.

You can play with this website to see how big a sample you'd need for different population sizes. The last election had just under 160 million voters. This next one may see 180mil. That difference doesn't matter. At any national population over 5 million, you need 1068 respondents to get a margin of error of 3%. If you want a 2% MOE for the next election, you have to get 2400 surveys done. That would cost more than 3 times the amount of a standard 3% MOE survey.

No one will pay for that. Marquette Law School's poll only interviewed 879 registered voters and had a MOE of over 4%

[Doc Sportello]

38. Exactly

Learned a long time ago in social statistics class that increasing sample size - at some point - actually reduces the accuracy. It seems counter intuitive but the research shows it to be true.

[unblock]

9. 683 likely voters, moe +/-4.7%

[Bucky]

11. Actually the topline numbers from the X post are registered voters. The 683 was likely voters

They interviewed 879 registered voters for the 53-47 results for a 4.1% MOE

[unblock]

37. Yes but the results in the o.p. were likely voters.

"Vice President Kamala Harris is the choice for president of 52% of registered voters and former President Donald Trump is the choice of 48%. Among likely voters, Harris receives 53% and Trump 47%."

[CTyankee]

39. Interesting and hopeful!

I am hoping that once voters start seriously considering their votes that our message and vitality carry the day for us!

Am I being too optimistic here?

[unblock]

41. Optimism, and exuberance, is very helpful in a political campaign. Even if it's "irrational".

I'm as sober and even-keeled as it gets, but I'm really enjoying the smiles and laughter and giddiness of late.

Swing voters respond to that. They want out of the endless juvenile behavior and negativity and anger of the trump era.

[unblock]

10. Link to Marquette press release:

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2024/08/07/mlspsc21-release/

[geojazz]

12. OMG!!! Go Kamala!!!!

[Pototan]

14. I only pay attention to trend lines

and nearly every poll in the past week has Harris winning and the margin growing.

Once we reach a nice margin (5% plus) in most polls, I'm looking for sustainability of that margin.

[OrlandoDem2]

15. Awesome! But's let's register new voters in Philly, Detroit, Madison

Atlanta, Phoenix, and Vegas. Any other voters are icing on the cake. Then we gotta GOTV!

Polls don’t win elections!

Keep talking to friends, family, and neighbors to get people to vote Kamala!

[helpisontheway]

16. Im not getting my hopes up because I remember when Hillary was riding high in the polls

We do have the ability to bank more early votes (unlike 2016) in case they pull some last minute shit. It is also good that this is before our convention. I’m just reluctant to get too excited because I was absolutely depressed about a month ago. The media really got to me with the Biden age shit. I notice the media does not mention age now. Trump is still there an no mention that he is 20+ years older than Kamala.

[geo1]

18. What strikes me is Harris polling above 50% and the low percentage undecided voters

Hard as it is for us political news junkies to believe, there are a lot of folks out there who don't pay that much attention to the news or the issues and decide whether to vote and who to vote for the last minute. And those folks want to "like" the candidate they are voting for, as if it was a high school popularity contest. I was all in for HIllary when she ran - phone banked as well as donated - so I remember well the major problem a lot of folks had with her is that they didn't "like" her. Lots of folks sitting on the fence going down to the wire, and they swung to Trump when the Comey thing hit the fan. Kamala and Tim have the "likeablity" thing going on. They also have (so far, knock on wood) the Democratic Party united behind them. Things are looking very good, sleeping a lot better at night, but sure can't get complacent. Hoping all are thinking about ways we can get out there and do our part to keep this trend going to the finish line.

Edited to add national average leading up to 2016 and 2020 elections:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/

[Johnny2X2X]

19. This is what I thought would happen

But I was thinking September to start seeing numbers like this.

Harris is definitely ahead now and would win if the election were today. Keep working. I think that we are going to see a growing movement and Trump is going to start acting out in panic.

[ColinC]

21. As soon as she entered the race and we saw the numbers start to turn like they did, I knew it was going to start looking

Like this barring any substantial or successful smear campaign. If this keeps, maybe she could be polling in the 60s when September ends.

[Johnny2X2X]

22. I think she'll be up several points with a month left

The polling averages will be Harris +6 or +7. So it will be like 53-46 in average with maybe a couple +10s in there and a couple +3s.

The electorate has reached a saturation point with the mud slinging and no longer listen. They care about issues and Trump is offering nothing on the issues.

[ColinC]

23. I'm gonna bet on a 64-35 538 polling average by October.

And 99.9% chance of winning the EC.

[Johnny2X2X]

26. I love it

Think positive.

So right before Biden dropped out, I think the numbers were starting to trend like they are right now in the opposite direction. I think we'll start to see some swing state polls that are equally as impressive as this national one. I think it was the state polls that convinced some Dem party leaders to convince Biden to drop out. The Republicans don't have this out anymore, they cannot replace Trump, and even if they could the's damaged the party so much there is no one out there. Having a VP ready in the wings was a godsend for Democrats.

Dems in array! As someone who has followed politcs and campaigns my entire life, I have never seen anything like what is happening in the Democratic Party right now. It's the ultimate case of having your shit together. They gamed all of this out. They are not leaving avything to chance. They have run a perfect campaign so far and what they're doing this week with this Harris-Walz full tilt campaign is a stroke of genius. Common thought is you do a couple small events to introduce the VP, but you really wait until the convention to begin your barnstorm type multi events a day campaign. Democrats recognized that there is a growing movement and as much excitement around a candidate as anyone has ever seen, so they launched a full on campaign this week, you get out there and define your ticket whe there's a wave of interest.

I believe in about 6 weeks, the main things the party will be talking about is how big the blue wave can be and what the path to holding the Senate will be while the House will be considered totally in the bag.

[geo1]

29. Definitely agree about never seeing the Dems in such array!

Just when I thought all was lost, the party seems to have seen the light and the stars seem to have aligned!

[Johnny2X2X]

34. To be fair

I don't think that anyone thought the switch would be going this well right now, but I think they had a Plan B that they'd been working for a while behind the scenes. The Plan B was in case Biden had to drop out. The last few weeks before Biden did drop out is when I think they spent a significant amount of money and time researching Harris vs Trump.

I think someone shooting at Trump was a total wild card and made Plan B more likely as Trump was going to campaign off that successfully. I think about that time, Democrat party leaders were sure Biden had to be convinced to leave. I think books will be written about the specifics, but my guess is they knew Biden was open to it for a few weeks and that they then just had to maximize the effect. You could not have gamed it out any more perfectly. They let Trump and his campaign get way over confident, pick a total zero extremist as a running mate, and complete his lackluster convention.

I get happy thoughts thinking about what GOP and Trump headquarters must have been like that Sunday Biden dropped out. Pure jubilation and celebrating I bet. They were probably high fiving and snorting rails off campaign posters. And then after a few hours, a couple of th smarter ones probably realized, "Hey wait guys, this could be bad." Then as the evening went on, and they realized the Democrats had a plan around Harris all along and they were quickly coalescing around her, they must have jumped into action, "we need data, get me analytics on this new race!" Then after a couple days, the smart guys probably knew they could be in trouble.

And today, it's a role reversal. Trumpsters have to spin the same way Biden supporters were spinning that he still had a good chance. You never want to be the side that is claiming the polls are all fake, even if there are problems with the polls, you don't want to be on the wrong side of them.

[geo1]

35. The message of "Plan B" candidate Kamala and her VP pick Tim is what has been the most joyful surprise surprise to me

They are saying things that I've been dying to hear for so long. They are proud of their stands on the issues, no tip toeing around or avoiding telling it like it is. "Mind your own business" particularly spoke to me as I've been telling folks who argue with me on this issue for years that it's none of their business what a woman chooses to do when faced with a reproductive decision.

[geo1]

24. Then there are those who want to vote for the winner, be on the winning side like it was a sporting event

Having a good lead running up to the end should carry it over the line

[Johnny2X2X]

28. Young people

Young people hate Trump, but too many weren't going to vote for Biden because of age. Young people are more excited to vote for Harris than they ever thought possible.

[ColinC]

20. Democrats have been overperforming polls in recent years

I don’t expect this year to be different.This is a year we might see Trump not even break 40% on election night.

[VMA131Marine]

27. Assuming 170 million votes in this election

A 6% margin is 10.5 million votes. At that point, I don’t care what the state polls say because Harris is going to win all the swing states and then some.

[BlueTsunami2018]

30. We're winning the popular vote no matter what.

It’s the battleground state polls that matter.

[bucolic_frolic]

31. With the financial and human resources we have, we can run that up 2-3%

Just keep working like your life depends on it, because it does.

[BlueKota]

32. Who are the idiotic 6 percent who are still

supporting RFK, Jr.?

[joshcryer]

40. He is everywhere putting his name on the ballots.

He's not spending money on advertising he's just getting his name on ballots. If you are on the streets in any major city there are dozens of people asking for signatures so he can make it on the ballot. It's a weird strategy. I'm guessing he's trying to get a chunk of the vote to be relevant.

And yes I signed my name, twice, in Nevada. The first time they messed up on some technicality so they threw out all the signatures. So they had to send them out again. I love it. And I would get him on the ballot any time of the day.

[Doodley]

33. 8 point 3 way lead! This is a seismic shift!

[Happy Hoosier]

36. Red Alert at Merde Lad-o! Hide the ketchup bottles!!! NT