Ohio is in play?

[Dem4life1970]

Wow. If this holds, then it is game, set, match.

&t=10s

[kwolf68]

1. I can't believe this one

Still a ways to go, but if Ohio is in play come November then yea I like it. But I'm sure the fascists will fix that state to go Trump. I don't want to go tin foil hat, but nothing would stop them from stealing any state.

Then again, IF you have to steal Ohio, then you're toast.

[Think. Again.]

2. After they tried stealing states in the last election, it ain't tinhat to expect them to do it again. It's wisdom.

[onecaliberal]

4. I don't know, but JD Vance is deeply unpopular there.

A lot of people there are not wild about dump.

[Initech]

15. It's entirely their own fault.

Don't want another JD Vance? Stop watching Fox News! Stop voting for and paying attention to the extremely terrible candidates they endorse!

[onecaliberal]

19. Of course it is their own fault.

I think some people are realizing that the convicted criminal is crazy and ridiculously unfit to serve.

[Wednesdays]

3. A lot of states would be game, set, match if Democrats take it

Ohio, Florida, Texas. Any one of those states lost would be fatal for the GOP.

Yeah, they're long shots, but this year, very possible. We just need to fire up and GOTV!

[onecaliberal]

5. After seeing the support Harris/Walz has in the Villages in Florida. We should swing for the fence.

When we fight, we win.

[Qutzupalotl]

9. Totally agree. People will come out of the woodwork this time

to claw back Roe, fix the courts, and save democracy.

We might need wins in unexpected places to thwart their plans, a state they thought was safe. This time around we might get some in places we aren't talking about. Women are absolutely fired up, both for Kamala and against restrictions on choice. Pot is on the ballot in Florida. Walz is beloved. Ted Cruz is reviled and vulnerable, while Allred is well-known and liked. Vance is a freak and Trump is deteriorating before our eyes.

Plus this is the first general presidential election after the former guy launched an insurrection to topple the government when he lost power. The first one post-conviction and sentencing. It's also the first one since abortion rights were overturned, due to the court being corrupted by presidents who did not win the popular vote.

Hell yeah we are motivated! Let's fucking go!

[onandup]

6. Trump is up 11.5% in RCP polls

I'm afraid this is wishful thinking. But of course we can win without Ohio.

[blm]

7. Ohio has a significant population of Ukrainian and Polish ancestry.

[FHRRK]

12. Good point

He will likely lose a small percentage of both of those demographics

[Emile]

8. I know they won't, but I wish they would spend money in Indiana too.

Last edited Mon Aug 12, 2024, 08:05 PM - Edit history (1)

Obama won Indiana, so it can be done!

[Polybius]

18. That 2008 Indiana election still baffles me

Republicans win handedly every year, and even win by 20 points in 2004. Then out of nowhere comes 2008, and Democrats win. Then from 2012 on, Republicans start winning again by 11, 19, and 16 points.

[Dem4life1970]

23. Neighbor...

I think since Barack was Barack (i.e. Amazing) plus from the state next door, and he ran Howard Dean's 50 State strategy too (Harris is emulating this in Georgia, visiting rural areas that never see a Presidential candidate to shave off those margins and boosting the urban vote in bigger centers).

[Polybius]

24. Then why didn't he win it again in 2012?

Obama lost it by 11 points in 2012. That's an 12 point swing. 2008 Indiana is still odd to me.

[yardwork]

10. Tim Walz will appeal to small town people in Ohio.

I doubt that Ohio will turn blue this election but Trump might have to waste some money there to ensure it.

[werdna]

11. Here's alink to the latest data from Ohio SoS -

Affiliation Totals
Number of Registered Voters in Ohio: 8,060,554
Number of Registered Democrats: 817,063
Number of Registered Republicans: 1,508,641
Number of Unaffiliated Registered Voters: 5,734,850

More at link:

https://www.ohiosos.gov/media-center/press-releases/2024/2024-05-10a/

[Bucky]

13. This is great news, but...

take with a grain of salt. Ohio was pretty close in the polls in the last two elections and Trump won both times by comfortable margins. Ohio is the best example of a place where more people vote for Trump's resentment routine than are willtin to admit it to a pollster.

That said, Ohio might be like a well behaved blue collar Texas. If we tighten up the polls there, it'll force the Republicans to spend money on defense where they don't want and clear up space for upsets in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.

On the other hand, if Ohio is in play for reals... maybe this translates into a few extra House seats as well. That'd be gravy.

[ColinC]

14. Ohio was in play in 2016. It can be in play this year too.

[kansasobama]

16. Not going to happen

Trump wins by 8 to 10 points

[Maeve]

17. While i have my doubts, the Repubs just pulled some ad money out

Money that was supposed to go for Moreno against Sherrod Brown. Brown is leading.

[Xolodno]

20. The media thought California was in play when it recalled Gray Davis.

No it wasn't. Davis moved too slowly on serious problems and had the personality of watching paint dry. Jerry Brown picked up after Schwarzenegger.

So be careful of the hype.

[lees1975]

21. There's not any current polling data on Harris v. Trump in Ohio, other than a couple of republican-funded polls.

So it very well could be. Just getting the minority vote motivated would be enough in Ohio. If she can get the black vote to near Obama level percentages, which she has done elsewhere and likely is doing in Ohio, she'll have it. That will be enough in Ohio.

And, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't there another abortion rights referendum on the Ohio ballot this fall? I know that abortion rights advocates won big there earlier this year, but I remember reading something about that being on the ballot again. If that's the case, it would really change the odds and the polling data which, on the first vote, missed the outcome by a wide mile.

[Dem4life1970]

22. Keep in mind

This reporting is what the Trump campaign thinks about Ohio. Their internal polling is showing softening in his support. At most as some have said, this could cause Harris/Walz to spend some time there and get the GOP playing defense in Ohio (and Florida) when they should be playing offense in MI, PA, WI, AZ, and GA. So even if Harris didn't end up winning Ohio (which she doesn't need, but no Republican has been elected without), she can drain precious time and resources from Trump. As for registrations, especially this year it doesn't matter. The GOP won't know whose vote to suppress because a lot of Haley voters, former Trump voters, and other lifelong Republicans are going to be voting for Harris (even if they tell family and friends they are voting for Trump). Once they get in that voting booth with them, God, and their conscience, many people are not pulling that lever for Trump. That is a good thing, esp. considering that no one knows where all of that money Trump has raised from his cult has gone. He has virtually no field offices and no real ad presence.