Trump at 58% in swing states? Nate Silver's swing state polls included Texas & Florida.

[applegrove]

Last edited Mon Sep 9, 2024, 02:30 AM - Edit history (3)

Nate Silver's swing state polls included Texas & Florida. So that's why way off. If you drop Florida and Texas, Dems get 78% of the vote in swing states if you copy his math.

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model




The 'math' method he used is to add up the swing state point scores (the amount by which either Trump or Harris are winning the battleground states) of both Harris and Trump (including Texas and Florida for Trump) separately. Then add them together. That is the big total. Divide 100% by the big total of the swing state polls. That gives you the multiplier. Now take the separate total scores of Harris and Trump and separately multiply them by the multiplier. Do it with Texas and Florida included in the Trump swing state total score. Do it without. With Trump is at 58% or 60%. Without Texas and Florida, Harris is ahead by 78%.

That is how it is done. Then do it by making California and New York swing states and see what you get.

It is not really data at all. But such a win for Trump, 58%, serves to cow people who are Kamala curious and depress democrates workers and voters.

[dsc]

1. and FL

It is odd that two states that are absolutely needed by the GOP to win get included as swing states in the model but her chances go down. That makes no real sense.

[Think. Again.]

3. Not odd, texas and florida are strong red states....

...on silver's page it shows that texas has a wildly higher red lean than the other states of over 5%, that makes his "swing state" poll uselss.

[Think. Again.]

2. Yeah, manipulating polls to sell ad space is a marketing art in itself.

[ratchiweenie]

8. And to think, he used to be the best. Now he's just another political jerk.

[Think. Again.]

9. Money changes everything.

[Scrivener7]

4. Nate is a sellout. Which is too bad. He used to be somebody.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. Corrupt hack Silver should never be quoted as a polling expert. Nt

[Self Esteem]

7. The inclusion of those states has nothing to do with the overall outcome of his model, tho.

There are other assumptions that are a bit more egregious than including Florida as a swing state, something that a good amount of posters here have said multiple times in threads that received a good amount of recs.

[BannonsLiver]

10. *And also because he's bought and paid for by Peter Thiel.