2020 was clearly an "asterisk" election due to COVID... 2024 turnout higher or lower?

[WarGamer]

2000 - 101M votes cast for Bush v Gore

2004 - 111M votes cast for Bush v Kerry

2008 - 130M votes cast for Obama v McCain

2012 - 127M votes cast for Obama v Romney

2016 - 129M votes cast for Trump v Clinton

2020 - 156M votes cast for Biden v Trump





I just can't see turnout higher in 24 than it was in 20... 202 was unlimited national vote by mail... 24 is not. If anything... voting might be tougher in 24 than it was in 16.

Turnout numbers historically grow at a consistent rate, with exceptions for generational candidates like Obama or the pandemic.

22 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	2024 will see higher turnout than 2020
	16 (73%)
	2024 will see lower turnout than 2020
	5 (23%)
	About the same... 156M-ish votes
	1 (5%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[ColinC]

1. Turnout for Democrats and dem leaning independents will be much higher

Republican turnout is likely to be lower, but I don’t know how this will effect the overall turnout.

[Initech]

8. Even the moderator at the debate said Trump had plateaued.

People are tired of Trump's schtick and they're waking up to the dangers of Project 2025. Trump is definitely not converting anyone to his side with his current antics. And the few loyalists that are left will go down with the ship with him.

[Self Esteem]

2. Not a chance turnout is higher than 2020, which had the highest turnout in 100 years.

[Polybius]

3. Can you add an option for "About the same"?

That's what I would have picked.

[ProfessorGAC]

4. Me Too, Polybius

I think it will be about the same, if only because the enthusiasm for Harris started late in the game.
Ennui or complacency is not likely to impact turnout.

[WarGamer]

6. edited

[Polybius]

7. Thanks

I just chose that as an option.

[Initech]

5. It will be higher for sure. Taylor's endorsement will definitely drive the youth vote.

And Fox News won't be able to lie or manipulate their way out of this one!