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Wavelight

(431 posts) Tue Sep 17, 2024, 11:49 AM Tuesday

NEW Monmouth University National Poll (A+): 🔵 Harris 49% (+5) 🔴Trump 44%

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NEW Monmouth University National Poll (A+): 🔵 Harris 49% (+5) 🔴Trump 44% (Original Post) Wavelight Tuesday OP

I still think that even that is on the low side. Scruffy1 Tuesday #1

Most of the higher rated polls have Harris leading between 4-6 pts. everyonematters Tuesday #2

Only 1 has Trump leading now Johnny2X2X Tuesday #4

26 post debate polls have been published Johnny2X2X Tuesday #3

National individual voter results in Kamala's favor are great to see. Fla Dem Tuesday #5

3.9% MOE renders these results close to meaningless Fiendish Thingy Tuesday #6

They do have an LV kansasobama Tuesday #7

Scruffy1

(3,400 posts)

1. I still think that even that is on the low side.

Reply to Wavelight (Original post)

Tue Sep 17, 2024, 11:57 AM

Tuesday

New voter registrations are going way up especially among women, Also there are about a million registered voter who reside outside the US. He lost by three million the first time and seven million the second time. Of course the electoral college is all that counts.

everyonematters

(3,518 posts)

2. Most of the higher rated polls have Harris leading between 4-6 pts.

Reply to Wavelight (Original post)

Tue Sep 17, 2024, 12:04 PM

Tuesday

Most of the lower rated ones have the lead lower or even have Trump leading.

Johnny2X2X

(21,053 posts)

4. Only 1 has Trump leading now

Reply to everyonematters (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 17, 2024, 12:08 PM

Tuesday

AtlasIntel is a big outlier with Trump +3 or +4. basically everything else is Harris +4-6, ytou're right there.

SoCal Strategies is literally the Republican Party's polling service, they both fund and run it, and they have Harris +3 right now.

Johnny2X2X

(21,053 posts)

3. 26 post debate polls have been published

Reply to Wavelight (Original post)

Tue Sep 17, 2024, 12:05 PM

Tuesday

Harris is up by at least 4 in 23 of them! She's up an verage of 4.1, throw out the outliers and she's up an average of 4.6.

The debate changed the race, she was ahead before, but now has a commanding lead. Keep working, we're winning!

It's still close, but not neck and neck.

Fla Dem

(25,194 posts)

5. National individual voter results in Kamala's favor are great to see.

Reply to Wavelight (Original post)

Tue Sep 17, 2024, 12:21 PM

Tuesday

But that didn't secure Hillary's win.

2016 Election Results

Hillary Clinton 65,853,625 Votes (48.0%) / 232 Electoral Votes

Donald J. Trump 62,985,106 Votes (45.9%) / 306 Electoral Votes

Fiendish Thingy

(17,364 posts)

6. 3.9% MOE renders these results close to meaningless

Reply to Wavelight (Original post)

Tue Sep 17, 2024, 12:32 PM

Tuesday

And why on earth are they still focusing on RV’s instead of LV’s?

Remember, you must double the MOE to determine if the margin is statistically significant.

Don’t know who gave Monmouth an A+ rating (538 stopped using letter grades over a year ago).

kansasobama

(1,216 posts)

7. They do have an LV

Reply to Wavelight (Original post)

Tue Sep 17, 2024, 01:37 PM

Tuesday

I hear it is higher 51-45. But, if LV is higher, they will report the lower number.

I do agree that all should be LV.

Monmouth is Mark Halperin 's favorite. He will go nuts.

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