Nate Silver really trying hard to downplay

[kansasobama]

This is what he says today:

Kamala Harris’s lead in national polls is up to 2.9 points, improved from 2.2 points before last week’s debate. There’s been a high volume of national polling, so this is pretty clearly some sort of debate bounce.

However, we remain lacking in high-quality state polling. The model makes inferences in the states based on national poll trends, but can err toward conservatism until it gets more state data. Harris did get a Suffolk poll showing her +3 in Pennsylvania, but also another one showing her down 2 points there. Harris has a 2-in-3 chance of winning the popular vote, but there’s also almost a 25 percent chance that she wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College, meaning that the election is a toss-up.

Here is my counter argument. 538 rates Insider advantage as 95 while Suffolk as 7. So, I thought he rates better polling company higher. Now, is he charging tune?

[Smooth155]

1. Dude got hired by Peter Teal

That explains it he sold his soul to the devil

[unblock]

6. What soul?

[iemanja]

11. That must be why 538 gives Harris a 61% chance of winning the election

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

And the name is Thiel, not Teal.

[Think. Again.]

2. My goodness he must be just RAKING in the cash lately!

[Klarkashton]

3. Remember the red wave?

[bluesbassman]

4. He must have a chiropractor on retainer as much as he twists himself into a pretzel.

His credibility is questionable at best these days and that’s all the time I’ll give him.

[gab13by13]

5. Nate Silver has moved to the dark side.

[obamanut2012]

7. His paycheck literally comes from Peter Thiel -- ignore him

[ColinC]

8. 538 poll rankings have nothing to do with Nate silver.

Silvers rankings are separate since he is not associated with 538 anymore.

[kansasobama]

15. Not saying that

But he does refer to 538 pollsters rating even now. He said AtlasIntel is rated high. High as in 538.

[ColinC]

20. No. silverbulletin has their own ratings. He constantly updates them.

[kansasobama]

22. Oh Ok, thanks

[ColinC]

23. Anytime!

[Eliot Rosewater]

9. Can we trace Peter Thiel's money to this guy?

If so we need to plaster it all over everywhere all day long.

[themaguffin]

13. Thiel is a major investor in the company that Nate work's for

[Eliot Rosewater]

21. Then 538 is no longer credible at all

[GoodRaisin]

10. I think there is more of a chance it is going to err toward gender

and that the media will be talking about the impact of Republicans denying abortion care come the morning of November 6.

Go ladies…

[iemanja]

12. Do you all even pay attention to the posts from earlier today?

538 gives Harris a 61% probability of winning the election.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

[senseandsensibility]

17. I think it is mentioned above that Silver no longer

works for 538. My understanding is that he was fired.

[iemanja]

18. Funny, because when I post about 538

all I hear is what a right wing swear job it is, etc.

[Omnipresent]

14. I hate that we have the possibility of losing the electoral vote, while winning the popular vote.

Any chance we can get two million Californian’s to move to Texas and Florida, to even out this BS electoral college?!

[ThePartyThatListens]

16. lol

Just laugh in their face whenever someone brings up a Nate Silver poll.

That's all it deserves.

[2naSalit]

19. Who?