If The Polls Are Saying Kamala Ahead By 6

[gab13by13]

If the polls are saying Kamala ahead by 6, what is she really ahead by? 10?

[Groundhawg]

1. 8

[yonder]

2. We need to work as if she's behind by 10.

[Pinback]

4. +270 (nt)

[yonder]

24. Respectfully and narrative or not, the work remains ahead of us.

Those who give more than their share, as yourself, those who assist as they can, like myself, and even the glib keyboard warriors are faced with a challenge to ensure the Harris/Walz ticket is successful in just over a month's time.

All contributions are important without burning out or peaking too soon, or worse yet, a complacency resulting from thinking we have it in the bag. However one is motivated, all of our efforts are important in securing victory in the most important election of our time.

[samsingh]

28. Thank you for the tremendous work

i think the message from those pushing to work like we are behind is to ensure that NO ONE lets up and no one takes anything for granted. Not only does Kamala need to win, but we need to hold the Senate, win the house, win Governorships.

The current republican party cannot be allowed to govern anywhere in the country until they are destroyed and rebuilt. They are a bunch of traitors, incompetents, and i believe criminals who hate America. I believe their motto is: "What can i swindle today and how can i further destroy America."

[WSHazel]

16. Disagree with positioning like we are behind

Pretending we are losing suppresses our own vote. Low engagement voters need to think that their vote matters and that they are winning.

[Iwasthere]

21. I wish Kamala would quit saying, "Make no mistake, We are the underdog"

[NoRethugFriends]

3. Likely about 6.

[kysrsoze]

5. I want it to be 20 by the time election day rolls around.

[ananda]

6. At least.

But the important thing is that we get out the vote
and make sure every vote counts!

[obnoxiousdrunk]

7. At least by

6.0 .

[Johnny2X2X]

9. I think she's up 4 or 5

It's about GOTV and likely voters. Who will outperform the polls?

In 2016 and 2020, Trump outperformed the polls. In 2022 and every special elections recently, Democrats have far outperformed the polls. Who is registering more voters? I think the data shows Harris is set up to outperform the polls, but there are some unknowns because Trump has outperformed polls based on something other than data.

[Doodley]

27. "Trump has outperformed polls based on something other than data." Isn't that suspicious?

[Johnny2X2X]

31. I think it was people embarrassed

People embarrassed to say the support him, but voted for him. I think there are less of those people now.

[Doodley]

40. Very true, but less so with SMS text polls.

[Fiendish Thingy]

10. Some polls had Biden ahead by 10 at this point in 2020

And he won by 4.5%

We won’t know how wrong/right the polls were until after the election.

[dem4decades]

11. She's not ahead by enough, so let's keep pushing.

[iemanja]

12. Why do you assume she's ahead more than the polls indicate?

Based on what?

[lees1975]

13. Based on their past record of underpolling Democrats and overpolling Republicans.

Recently.

[iemanja]

34. Like 2016?

[gab13by13]

14. Nate Silver went to the dark side for a reason.

[iemanja]

35. Which poll did Nate silver take?

[WarGamer]

19. IDK...

[WarGamer]

17. According to 2016 and 2020 polling... it wil be tighter than that.

[SomedayKindaLove]

32. Maybe

But lots of pollsters tried to correct the Trump inaccuracies this time around.

And just because the Trump vote surpassed polling two times, does not automatically mean it will happen again. Who knows, maybe they are not uncovering more Harris votes this time around. Although they seemed to have found the votes in Iowa and Alaska as Harris is only down 4 in both states.

[Amishman]

22. Three of the past four elections had a + D net polling error

2016 had a D+3.0 error
2018 had a R+0.5 error
2020 had a D+4.7 error
2022 had a D+0.8 error.

So given that recent history, if the polls say we're up by six, it's reasonable to behave as if we're up by a few percent less than that

[ColinC]

25. No it isn't reasonable at all to assume that

For one: 2016 was fairly on the money and had polls trending towards Trump. So the error was simply not accounting for the quick lack of enthusiasm towards supporting Clinton (it happened quickly after Comey) along with a not-insignificant enthusiasm gap for Republicans.

2020 was incredibly special as well because of COVID. Simply put, republicans knocked on doors while Democrats didn’t (we weren’t really into dying or killing our relatives)

You also need to consider the enthusiasm gaps that favored Republicans in all those elections. This year, Democrats are enjoying the largest voter enthusiasm gap since 2008. With a combination of these consideration, it is fair to say Democrats could likely have a significant polling error that favors them. Especially if Democrats continue to turn out their volunteers to knock on doors, while Republicans keep doing shit like this:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna170516

[ColinC]

23. Depends on how many doors we knock

[TheProle]

30. Let 2016 be your guide

[2naSalit]

33. Something just occurred to me...

We know that shithead is melting down and getting more dangerous by the minute, what if there's some effort to not showing how large a gap there actually is to keep him from going ballistic and increasingly violent and disruptive this far out from the election? Not that I would personally place that much integrity upon the polling network but it's just a thought. Too much confirmation that he's not going to win, not no way, not no how... his army of brainiacs could cause more trouble than they already are.

November 5th can't get here soon enough.

[2naSalit]

38. I would...

Not argue against your points, we are certainly putting off the inevitable but timing is also crucial. If he can hang in until just the right time, it could negate all their other plans.

I can't wait for Thanksgiving Day.

[Democratic_Spotlight]

36. GOP post-election shenanigans are the danger

We need to win so big that any post-election shenanigans will be easy to disprove.

[mucholderthandirt]

41. Fifteen. Or more. We all know how these polls are done, they are in no way actually representative of the country.

Doesn't mean we can slack off. Still have to be out there, getting the votes, scaring away anyone who thinks they can steal this, or intimidate people when voting. Fuck that shit. GOTV! Make it hurt Trump so bad he goes running to Putin for some loving. Make JD cry on his couch.