Will the Presidential Race Really Be Close?

[applegrove]

Will the Presidential Race Really Be Close?

September 17, 2024 at 10:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 215 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2024/09/17/will-the-presidential-race-really-be-close/

"SNIP.............

Everyone seems to agree that the presidential race is too close to call. That’s because while Kamala Harris currently holds a small lead nationally, the race is within the margin of error in seven key swing states.

But several indicators suggest Harris could actually win convincingly:

* Harris now has a net positive favorability rating for the first time since July 2021. Donald Trump remains significantly underwater.
* Senate Democrats are still outperforming Harris in key states, suggesting she could benefit from reverse coattails.
* Abortion rights remains a key driver of turnout, a point amplified by Republicans in swing districts furiously separating from their party on the issue.
* There are clear signs Harris is rebuilding the Obama coalition.
* Harris is crushing Trump in fundraising.

None of this guarantees Harris a victory in November. Trump still enjoys solid backing from his base and the nation’s deep divisions make it hard for any candidate to gain a significant lead in the polls.

...........SNIP"

[tetedur]

1. They told us Hillary Clinton was leading in the polls.

[Meadowoak]

3. she was, until Comey launched his investigation into her emails, and too many decided she had it in the bag anyway so

they stayed home.

[Doodley]

5. She probably was ahead until Comey destroyed her chances and gave Trump the chance to falsely portray her

as the most incompetent, corrupt and dangerous candidate ever.

[LiberalFighter]

14. Details are not the same.

Besides Coney. Voters did not know enough about Trump. Republicans were pretty much lock step in support of Trump.

[BOSSHOG]

2. We have these discussions

Because of the electoral college which has nothing to do with democracy. I believe we will win the popular vote impressively yet spend election night wringing our hands while trump has hopes to stay out of prison because slave owners needed their rights protected.

[Lovie777]

4. Fingers cross..........................

Harris/Walz for the big win both popular and EC.

[elleng]

6. I ain't talking!!!

[lees1975]

7. I think the enthusiasm level needs to be consistently high.

Turnout will win this election, and it's looking right now like Harris is going to get a high level of turnout, given the ground game they have and the number of people working to move it that way. All of these other things are indicators, including the high percentages of support for the issues she emphasizes.

I don't really trust the polling data anymore. It can be manipulated and used to fit narratives that aren't accurate when it comes to predicting election outcomes. I think, looking at this from different angles, things that are actual indicators of enthusiastic support, like the voter registration numbers soaring, and the fact that she is now heading over the 50% margin in multiple national polls, as well as now holding a lead in every battleground state, with some of those leads being outside margins of error, and the actual number of people who are contributing, which is astounding compared to just about any previous campaign.

I have made my own prediction, that she clears 350 electoral votes and wins by a 10 million vote margin nationally. And with that, I'm also contributing, and I'm helping Democrats canvass in a couple of Southeastern Wisconsin counties. I did that during the 2020 election and again during the mid-terms, but I have not seen anywhere near the kind of support, or gotten the kind of encouragement from voters, as I have seen this time around. So I'm optimistic.

Beware of Republican tricks to keep the vote totals down in urban areas. Rachel Bitcofer has warned of possible bomb threats being used to do this. I put NOTHING past them in attempts to cheat this election.

[uponit7771]

8. ***YES*** Decided by less than 100,000 votes for nearly 2 decades this wont be different, need congress to implement any

... of Harris's plans that's the one thing TFG said that was true

[RANDYWILDMAN]

9. Thank the founders

They fouled this one up big time. Harris could win by 12-14 million votes, lose by 10k votes in 3 states and lose the election.

Let's hope it's not one of *asterisk elections like 2000 and 2016 but Remember those elections have fucked up the Supreme Court maybe forever....

I think she overwhelms him and blows him out, but, get out and vote to make sure !!!!!!!

[LiberalFighter]

15. If the popular vote is that high it is highly unlikely the swing states turn out that way.

More likely the margin in those swing states favor even more for Harris.

[Wounded Bear]

10. There have been positive trends in the polls, but the Electoral College is still dicey...nt

[oasis]

11. Harris will runaway with this, having astronomical

numbers.

[sarisataka]

12. Yes it is. Harris will win the popular vote though

probably not by as much as we would like.

But we should recall that the popular vote overall is meaningless in and of itself. Only the Electoral matters and that is up in the air.

[B.See]

13. Yes it will be close and

yes, we should not DARE to assume it won't be.

[SocialDemocrat61]

16. Hope for the best

Expect the worst.

[Sibelius Fan]

17. Harris will win in a landslide, with impressive coattails.

Anyone who believes that posts like this will somehow “jinx” the election should get themselves to a church where they can fully indulge their belief in make believe. 😊

[doc03]

18. The polls could be dead even but if one side has a massive turnout it

could be a landslide. Look at the special elections on abortion the polls turned out to be way off.

[electric_blue68]

19. I don't think it'll be as close as some think. And - hopefully THAT- in the Right Places will eliminate the Electoral..

College potential problem!
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