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Status Kuo: Pennsylvania Polling A deeper dive into how the race is looking in the Keystone state
https://statuskuo.substack.com/p/pennsylvania-polling?Jay Kuo Sep 17, 2024
Beyond its baseline finding that Harris leads Trump statewide by three points, the Suffolk survey did something else quite interesting. It also separately polled 600 likely voters in two key swing counties in the state to see how the electorate viewed the candidates. Erie and Northampton are considered true swing counties that often act as bellwethers for which party will carry the state, so Suffolk chose them to do a deeper dive.
Erie County is in Northwestern Pennsylvania. Both Harris and Walz have recently visited there, signifying its importance to the campaign. Erie is an older industrial county that Trump won by 2 points in 2016, but he lost it to Biden by a single point in 2020. The Bulwark describes Erie as “home to many of the white, working-class Rust Belt voters both parties have been competing over for years” but concedes that “there’s not much either side can do to restore its former industrial glory.” It’s also an older county, with 18 percent of the residents over the age of 65, so even a big investment into a new industrial corridor by the Biden administration matters less to voters there than the price of gasoline and groceries and whether retirement benefits can keep up with inflation. Despite a more skeptical older electorate, Harris leads Trump in Erie County by four points, and that’s rather important.
Northampton County is in Eastern Pennsylvania and includes the cities of Easton and Bethlehem. Trump won the county by four points in 2016, but Biden took it by one point in 2020. If Erie County is defined by its older population, a driving force within Northampton is its Latino population, which comprises 13 percent of the county. Harris dominates Trump among this group, leading him 60 to 25 percent in a survey of 300 likely voters. That helped give Harris a five point lead over Trump in Northampton County, almost to the edge of the 5.7 percent margin of error.
Erie County is in Northwestern Pennsylvania. Both Harris and Walz have recently visited there, signifying its importance to the campaign. Erie is an older industrial county that Trump won by 2 points in 2016, but he lost it to Biden by a single point in 2020. The Bulwark describes Erie as “home to many of the white, working-class Rust Belt voters both parties have been competing over for years” but concedes that “there’s not much either side can do to restore its former industrial glory.” It’s also an older county, with 18 percent of the residents over the age of 65, so even a big investment into a new industrial corridor by the Biden administration matters less to voters there than the price of gasoline and groceries and whether retirement benefits can keep up with inflation. Despite a more skeptical older electorate, Harris leads Trump in Erie County by four points, and that’s rather important.
Northampton County is in Eastern Pennsylvania and includes the cities of Easton and Bethlehem. Trump won the county by four points in 2016, but Biden took it by one point in 2020. If Erie County is defined by its older population, a driving force within Northampton is its Latino population, which comprises 13 percent of the county. Harris dominates Trump among this group, leading him 60 to 25 percent in a survey of 300 likely voters. That helped give Harris a five point lead over Trump in Northampton County, almost to the edge of the 5.7 percent margin of error.
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