Rate Cut Would Cap Winning Streak for Biden and Harris

[applegrove]

Rate Cut Would Cap Winning Streak for Biden and Harris

September 18, 2024 at 5:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 0 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2024/09/18/rate-cut-would-cap-winning-streak-for-biden-and-harris/

"SNIP...........

New York Times: “Recent weeks have brought a run of good data on consumer prices and interest rates for the administration. The price of gasoline has fallen below $3 a gallon in much of the South and Midwest and is nearing a three-year low nationally. Spiking grocery prices have slowed to a crawl. Mortgage rates are down more than a percentage point from their recent peak. The Census Bureau reported last week that the typical household income rose faster than prices last year for the first time since the pandemic.”

“The overall inflation rate has returned to near historically normal levels, and the Fed is poised to begin cutting interest rates from a two-decade high.”

............SNIP"

[oldsoftie]

1. I've been saying cut a 1/2 point & make a statement about the resilience of the economy

The Fed always reacts too late & we've seen employment slowing. Doing a half-point NOW will get a jump on it & get fence sitters back out looking for homes.
2025 is going to be a challenge for whoever wins the election; our debt payments are going to pass the defense budget. THAT is going to cause a strain. Neither party will seriously attack it

[gab13by13]

3. 25 basis points are already baked in.

My big tell is if the cut is 25 or 50. TSF wants no cuts so the Fed doing 25 will have no positive effect but 50 will.

Just as important is what Jerome is going to say. Will he proclaim future cuts or will he do negative Fed speak that will dampen the market?

[oldsoftie]

7. I say do .50 with a statement about the economy still being strong

But that they dont want to wait because then its too late.
Of course it would have to be worded TOTALLY different because everyone hangs on each word & different words mean different things to the "experts" even if they're basically the same

[LetMyPeopleVote]

2. I would love to see 50 basis point cut

[Johnny2X2X]

4. Odds are 60/40 in favor of a 50 basis point cut

This Fed has been extremely cautious in watching the inflation data, they will not risk another uptick in inflation, I think it will be 25 points.

It's all hard to predict. I think what the Fed says with their cut is equally as important, a 25 point cut with language that 2 more cuts are definitely happening this year might be received better than a 50 point cut and "wait and see" language.

Of course, a rate cut helps bonds, so money could be moving into bonds a little more too.

[gab13by13]

5. The Fed has been too cautious, IMO

[Johnny2X2X]

6. Probably because they got it wrong at the start

They should have never called it transitory before they had more data. They were slow to act or we could have avoided the worst of it.

But it's inflation, it's the hardest thing to predict or understand in economics. The supply chain was harmed and shutdown. People had extra money to spend to fuel demand. Then the recovery was faster than we thought and it fueled increased demand. Then corporate greed kicked in to make inflation worse.

But once the Fed decided to act, it's been pretty remarkable. Powell will be the most celebrated Fed chairman in generations. To pull off a soft landing is quite a feat. But I think Biden gets most of the credit for that, his economy and his administration is centered around working people having more to spend, that's the engine that drives the economy.

And this was a one off unusual event, and for those of us old enought to remember the 80s, inflation and interest rates this time around were not at crisis levels. I remember buying a house in 1994 and getting a 6.8% interest rate and that was seen as unheard of and people couldn't believe how low it was. I remember double digit inflation during Reagan. And I remember crime rates more than double what we have now.

The media really drove perception. I know people personally who will tell you endlessly that they are so much worse off, but when questioned deeper about it they'll admit they're making a lot more money, have more savings, and are really in better position.

[WarGamer]

8. Let's get back down to 3% to address the problems in housing and autos...

[BannonsLiver]

13. On brand.

[Liberty Belle]

9. The biggest problem is grocery prices -- it's not enough to say inflation is slowed. We need prices lowered.

This is what's killing the budget for anyone who doesn't have a big income or an income that rises with inflation.

For people on fixed incomes it's a nightmare.

It's also hurting restaurants-I know many on the verge of going under due to the higher food costs, meaning less customers can afford to eat out.

That said, the fed lowering interest rates would be a good thing for those trying to buy a house.

But it does nothing for the vast majority of Americans having trouble affording to buy food, or enjoy an occasional night out at a restaurant.

They need to investigate the price-gouging by grocery stores and perhaps provide some tax incentives for grocery chains that will lower overall prices on staple foods significantly and keep them down for an extended period of time. Consider fines on excess profits on staples people must have.

[ancianita]

10. Since May, 8 retailers have cut prices, short and long term. People are noticing.

Aldi, Amazon Fresh, Giant Food, Ikea, Michaels, Target, Walgreens, Walmart.
But imo, it's not because they're not greedy, they are. They're just trying to entice their old shoppers to return under the pretext of caring about customers. It's what they do when they see regulatory bodies moving in their direction.


https://www.aarp.org/money/budgeting-saving/info-2024/retailers-price-cuts-inflation.html

[ProudMNDemocrat]

11. GREAT news for Biden/Harris....BAD need for tRump/Vance..

After the Fed announces the rate cut, Harris/Walz will jump on this and reinforce their positions that the Economy is strong due to Joe's stewardship.

More wind in their sails for sure.

[Beartracks]

12. Or in Republican-speak, a lousy economy (since it's under a Democratic administration's watch).

Republicans would absolutely crow and beat their chests about far less economic good news whenever it's under a Republican administration.

================

[IronLionZion]

14. Trump/Vance can complain about the Fed next

they are on the official record as to adjusting rates at his request during his presidency. So of course he's a hypocrite.

The Fed is set to announce today at 2 PM Eastern

[oldsoftie]

15. Glad to see 1/2 pt. Cant WAIT to rag my banker friends who said I was crazy.

I was at a fundraiser in April with several & told them "If you're totally objective you'd see a 1/2 point in Sep"