Is Nebraska in play? How an unlikely candidate could upend GOP's Senate hopes

[marmar]

(Salon) Union steamfitter Dan Osborn is running against incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in Nebraska, one of the country's reddest states — and there are signs that the race could be much closer than expected. Osborn is an independent, not a Democrat, and insists he's not aligned with either major political party. But the narrow focus of his platform suggests a possible model for taking on Republicans in states where the Democratic brand is particularly weak.

The U.S. Senate race in the Cornhusker State suddenly registered on the national radar after a recent Split Ticket and Survey USA poll that found Osborn trailing Fischer by just one point, 39 to 38 percent.

Republicans have publicly dismissed the poll, and many political analysts have been skeptical — perhaps with reason — that an independent candidate could actually win in Nebraska, the Osborn campaign says internal polls have reported similar results.

The Survey USA poll also suggested that undecided voters, who accounted for about 20% of survey respondents, may be friendlier to Osborn than to Fischer. In the poll's crosstabs, 20% of those undecided voters supported President Biden in 2020, while only 10% supported former President Donald Trump. ...............(more)

https://www.salon.com/2024/09/18/is-nebraska-in-play-how-an-unlikely-candidate-could-upend-gops-senate-hopes/

[Gaytano70]

1. I am phone banking for Dan Osborne!

I really like him. Hard worker, Veteran, union guy who led a successful strike against the Kelloggs plant, and he supports reproductive freedom.
In Nebraska, 30% say they are undecided, so that's who we are trying to contact.
True that he is not a Democrat, but when he wins, I think he would caucus with the Dems.

[TwilightZone]

2. Amazing that the undecideds are that high in a race with a two-term incumbent.

That can't be good news for Fischer. Everyone in NE knows who she is, and she got 57% of the vote in 2018.

[Gaytano70]

3. Exactly

I truly wish Preston Love Jr. had as much of a chance to beat P Ricketts.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

6. I think you could run Tom Osborne, but if he had "D" in front, he wouldn't have a chance outside NE-2

Osborne is being painted as a member of the "radical left" by the Fischer campaign, but he's running as an outsider who actually gets his hands dirty for a living -- not like Deb Fischer and Jim Pillen who embrace their farm/ranch history but haven't shoveled out any barns in recent history. And Osborne is pointing out that she said she wouldn't run for a third term, and yet she is doing just that.

What surprised me more in a bad way is that the most recent survey I saw for NE 2 shows Trump up 8.

[Gaytano70]

7. Which survey?

Every real poll (eg, not funded by Deb Fisher) shows the exact opposite.

[marmar]

9. Which poll? 538 says otherwise....

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nebraska/2/

[Algernon Moncrieff]

10. RCP "No Toss Ups"

https://www.realclearpolling.com/maps/president/2024/no-toss-up/electoral-college

They also aggregate, like 538 does. Just use different pills.

I'm not posting it to be Dave Downer. After 2016, I'd always prefer that we look at the most pessimistic credible polling and act accordingly.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

11. First, I answered the wrong question - apologies

Second - I can't find the poll now (of course) but I did see that 538 has it likely Harris, so hopefully I saw an outlier.

Interesting dynamics in the house race here. R Don Bacon won fairly easily against Dan Frei, a MAGA favorite. Frei supporters are saying they are going to skip voting in that race to punish Bacon for not offering a full throated defense of J6. So Tony Vargas may have a path to flipping the seat.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

4. Fischer has been forced to start advertising

I don't think they saw this coming.

[Renew Deal]

5. Is a Democrat running?

[TwilightZone]

12. No

There was apparently a deal for Osborn to work with Dems in exchange for them not running a candidate, but he seems to have reneged on said deal.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_Nebraska#Democratic_primary

[Grown2Hate]

13. I'm hoping that's just a ploy so that

he comes across as truly Independent to voters that wouldn't want to vote for someone associated at all with the Democrats. I guess we'll find out if he wins!

[TwilightZone]

14. I'm pretty sure it is.

Outside of Lincoln/Omaha, Nebraska is not just very conservative, but also very anti-Democratic Party, so it's probably a shrewd move. I wish the state party hadn't made a big deal out of it, though they also backed off later.