A Rated - Marist Rust Belt Polls Dropped at Midnite

[Stallion]

Michigan Harris +5 (52-47)
Wisconsin Harris +1 (50-49)
Pennsylvania Tied (49-49)

Good news in Michigan but I had hoped for better

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4887548-harris-trump-michigan-wisconsin-pennsylvania/

[mucholderthandirt]

1. Look at it this way: Harris is trending upward, Trump is basically flatlined. Follow the trend, not the poll.

[lindysalsagal]

2. These are all still weighted by 2020 turnout. 2024 will be much more women and minorities.

Source of weighting benchmarks

Weighting factors Registered voter sample
Education 2020-2022 Current Population Survey (CPS)

voting and registration supplement Race/Ethnicity White X College degree

Gender by age group 2020 Presidential turnout by vote method/timing
Frequent general election turnout vs. others (2018, 2020 and 2022)

Aristotle voter file Pennsylvania region by party registration Pennsylvania Department of State
2020 Presidential vote choice Federal Election Commission

[peggysue2]

3. Quinnipiac poll has Harris up 6 in Pennsylvania

So the numbers are still jumping around. The trend, however, indicates a Harris/Walz advantage.

And that's all good!

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4886620-kamala-harris-leads-trump-pennsylvania-michigan/

[lees1975]

4. Bogus

Don't believe it.

[DoBW]

5. probably crap sampling again

[kansasobama]

6. Michigan and PA

MI is way high and PA low. Harris won't win by 5 in MI. Also, I don't think it is tied in PA. Probably, she is ahead by 1 or 1.5.

[kansasobama]

7. Weighing is between 2022 and 2020

Weighing by 2020 is wrong. Yes, 2020 under represented Trump vote and 2022 under represented Dems. So, I guess I am fine with their weighing but hope it is not under representing Trump.