Which do you trust more: Polls or Allan Lichtman's Keys?

[Frank D. Lincoln]

Me? I trust Allan Lichtman, the American University historian who's been called the "Nostradamus of presidential election predictions," because of his near-perfect 40-year track record.

[https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219428373|

The confidence is rooted in Mr. Lichtman’s simple, history-driven model, which tunes out polls and pollsters and instead focuses on 13 true-or-false questions that he says hold the “keys” to the White House.

Allan Lichtman predicts Kamala Harris is going to win.

GOTV.

53 votes, 0 passes | Time left: Time expired
	I trust the polls more than Allan Lichtman's Keys.
	3 (6%)
	I trust Allan Lichtman's Keys more than the polls.
	19 (36%)
	I trust neither.
	30 (57%)
	I don't know.
	0 (0%)
	Other.
	1 (2%)
	No answer.
	0 (0%)
	0 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
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[sky_masterson]

1. We need another poll similiar to this

What Political election theories do you get behind?
Rachel Bitecoffer
Alan Lichtman
Nate Silver
To me Bitecoffer is the one i put most behind.
Lichtmens Keys are subjective to me.

[displacedvermoter]

2. I voted other because I believe

the polls are more and more indicative of his prediction.

[getagrip_already]

3. Neither, they are both political entertainment...

They are designed to make money for the authors and buyers. They are used as the currency of the media.

Neither is scientific nor statistically defensible.

[Poiuyt]

4. I like following the betting markets

[Scruffy1]

6. I agree.

Just because someone has been in the past really has no bearing. If you flip a coin and it comes up heads six times in a row it is still 50-50 on the next flip. A real tell is the use of the term "Nostrodamus" who wrote silly vague crap. Bookmakers are very realistic and only care about making money. The problem with polls is the "likely voter" classification. No one knows who will turn up on election day. Of course, the booky thing is just based on how the money is going like pari-mutual betting so it doesn't include non gamblers. What we do know that a good candidate will find a way to win especially in a close race and the way to do it is through enthusiasm thst drives people to vote.

[TwilightZone]

7. Some markets had Trump at 90% on election day. They predicted a GOP wave in 2022.

They basically just swing with the news. They aren't any more predictive than anything else (in some cases, they're decidedly worse).

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/11/16/how-good-are-election-prediction-markets/

[ClimateHawk]

5. The keys

Because they have held since 1860.

[tavernier]

8. Lichtman.

Gore won.

[mucholderthandirt]

10. This. Al Gore won, when the votes got counted. The Supreme Court had no business interfering. Bastards all.

If Lichtman has been so right in the past, the odds are he's right this time, too. If the MSM bobbleheads weren't corporate lackeys, Harris would have a twenty point lead and Trump would truly be the laughing stock of the world, instead of coddled and excused.

[rso]

9. RSO

Fortunately, both Lichtmann and most polls are predicting a Harris victory.

[Frank D. Lincoln]

11. That does make me feel more confident

but not to the point of complacency.

I know we still have to GOTV on a massive scale.

[ecstatic]

12. There are other countries that are hell bent on turning the foreign policy / military keys

So I don't know.

Also, we now have a lot of people fucked up due to the storms.

[Quixote1818]

13. His keys are often wrong if you count the popular vote

I think he's onto something with voter trends near election day but the electoral college makes his keys almost irrelevant. What if Texas had been a blue state in 2016? Trump would have lost. Subtle shifts in voter trends in current swing states could ruin his predictions. He's been lucky several swing states have worked in his favor as the popular vote has shifted to the left.