Donald Trump is gaining on Kamala Harris in the polls. I have some theories why Robert Reich

[usaf-vet]

Here are some snippets from a long, detailed article.

By now, almost everyone in America knows Trump and has made up their minds about him. Recent polls have found that nearly 90% of voters say they do not need to learn more about Trump to decide their vote.
But they don’t yet know Harris, or remain undecided about her.

Trump’s strategy also requires that he and his allies simultaneously flood the airwaves and social media with negative ads about Harris, which are then amplified by the rightwing ecosystem of Fox News, Newsmax and Sinclair radio.

Finally, Trump’s strategy necessitates that he refuse to debate her again, lest she get additional positive exposure (hence he has turned down CNN’s invitation for a 23 October debate, which she has accepted).

Having said all this, I’m cautiously optimistic about the outcome of the election. Why? Because Trump is deteriorating rapidly; lately he’s barely been able to string sentences together coherently.

Harris, by contrast, is gaining strength and confidence by the day, and despite Trump’s attempts to shut her out, more Americans are learning about her. As she gets more exposure, Trump’s “devil-you-know” advantage disappears.

Perhaps it’s more accurate to say I’m nauseously optimistic, because, to be candid, I go into the next five weeks feeling a bit sick to my stomach. Even if Harris wins, the fact that so many Americans seem prepared to vote for Trump makes me worry for the future of my country.

Bold emphasis be me.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/01/trump-gaining-on-harris-polls-theories?

[Pinback]

1. "Nauseously optimistic" - great description

Pretty much where I am.

[DemonGoddess]

3. Same

[magicarpet]

2. Barfingly apprehensive here.

So many fascistic MAGA Meatheads in the USA.

[usaf-vet]

4. LOL

[birdographer]

5. Kind of a tangential comment

Speaking of those people willing to vote for trump. I have minimal contact with any of them, but it does come up occasionally. As far as I can tell, many are voting for trump because their community is, their family is, their spouse is. As far as my minimal observations, these particular folks know nothing about him (they really don't care for politics). I have been told by them that if Harris wins, we will "continue" to have high gas prices, whereas trump will lower them. What? All sorts of horrible things will happen if trump loses, their lives will be turned upside down, they will lose all their money, they won't be able to afford groceries, newborns will be killed and pets eaten. I'm wondering what will happen with these know-nothing voters who are fed snippets of a horrendous future if trump loses when he does lose and... they wait and wait for the sky to fall and the world as we know it to end; and six months, a year later, not only has it not ended, none of those threats came to pass. I'm not talking about the hardcore racists in the cult, but the mindless ones. Will those trump voters come out of it? How many are voting for him just because they don't know any better, not because they are violent, hate-filled people? So...might we ever get them back in the real world, once trump is dead and gone? Any?

[PortTack]

11. Thing is...many of them don't vote...they just complain

[betsuni]

24. Like how Obama was going to take all their guns. When it doesn't happen, doesn't matter, it's GOING TO HAPPEN.

The more cynical and pessimistic and thinking of oneself as a helpless victim of THEM, the more likely to vote Trump or third party or not to vote.

[birdographer]

25. I'm talking about after the election

Six months later. He's either dead or all we hear about are him falling asleep at his trials. Will the cult members farthest from the core, the ones who aren't that political and were only conforming to their community, family, or spouse choices, is there any chance that any of them will return to being a normal person when things either didn't change at all or got better? The few I have talked to know no facts, but they aren't as rabid as the core.

[betsuni]

28. They thought Obama was taking their guns after TWO elections and eight years.

[intrepidity]

6. And with Vance waiting in the wings.....

a Trump win would be a double disaster, given Trump's declining health.

I do wonder, though, which way JD would flip-flop once Trump is no longer in the picture.

[returnee]

7. He'll flip whichever way...

…Peter Thiel wants him to.

[displacedvermoter]

8. He is falling further behind in other polls

Not sure why we are always so caught up in the worrying instead of enjoying any of the hopefulness that is seemingly abounding?

Another thread just coming up about the throngs waiting to hear Kamala speak in Michigan, that is good, positive shit to concentrate on. That is what I choose to do.

Makes my stomach feel better, too!

[PortTack]

10. Exactly! Why does anyone hang on poll outcomes when they've proven to be inaccurate cycle after cycle!

[SomedayKindaLove]

13. Meanwhile

Trump half-way filled a 4,000 seat venue the other day. The momentum has been moving to Harris ever since Biden ended his campaign.

[nolabear]

20. It's a common trauma response.

The last eight years have been genuinely traumatizing for most of this country. People become terrified of relaxing and trusting. This entire country, on all sides, has PTSD from that bastard. It’s going to take quite a while to really trust the joy we’re holding on to so hard.

[displacedvermoter]

21. Very true, a sad commentary on where we are as a nation

[PortTack]

12. Paragraph #2....flood the airwaves....tsf has no money to do that!!

[Bernardo de La Paz]

14. He doesn't need ads when he can get his name in the news w a tweet and/or a lie. . . . nt

[Sugarcoated]

29. Dark money

Dark money super pacs. They have lots of money to help him get elected

[et tu]

15. i am bigly optomistic!

it will be a big beautiful blue tsunami- get
ready to hang ten, it will be awesome

[SWBTATTReg]

16. This was kind of misleading to me, the name of the article, I guess.

Misleading, in the manner of not explaining the 'gain' etc. (had to go to source document).

Robert Reich's article was all over the map, I was ecstatically in the air, and then down in the mud, and then back up in the air again, and boom, back in the mud. Multiple times. I got exhausted reading it.

[BaronChocula]

17. I have this weird feeling

Kamala Harris' CV would be enough for everybody if she was a 60-year old white male.

Actually, it's not that weird of a feeling.

[Jersey Devil]

18. I don't get the "Trump is gaining in the polls" part

Where? Exceept for a few blips within the margin of error, where are these "gains"?

[KS Toronado]

19. That's a reQublican pumpkin talking

[bif]

22. Bullshit.

[usonian]

23. But they don't yet know Harris ... That's the win.

The scumbags had years and years to smear Hillary with lies, distortions and character assassination.

They had 4 years to lie about Joe Biden, his family, and smear him in every unimaginable way.

By handing the reins to Kamala Harris, he saw that the GOP and fellow scum had spent their entire ammunition depot on him, that their strategy is still to fight him, via "The Harris Administration" (as if the Democrats are attacking "The Pence Administration" which would be equally ludicrous, and that they could not ramp up a similar attack on Harris, given that despite 24 by 7 brainwashing by media, and those are mighty small brains to wash --- a light rinse will do --- they are so slow on the uptake that Kamala has a four year smear lead on the opposition.

It was one of the most brilliant political moves ever. He let the opposition exhaust itself against an enemy who moved and substituted a whole new force.


And by contrast, the "maga nominee" visibly deteriorates into incoherence and madness.

Reich is too caught up in intellectual arguments and matters to grasp the simple fact that we are dealing with a cult. Cults are not rational. They are self-defeating, and the only beneficiary is the cult leader. Members join in exchange for "legitimization" of some normally illegal or immoral behavior, such as racism, hate, misogyny, theft, violence and so on. But they lose their dignity, individuality, money, opportunities, education and futures. (and they are brainwashed into thinking that someone else took it from them. The ultimate blame game)

Realization of any of the mechanisms of cult control --- lies, hypocrisy, contradiction etc. -- come slowly. It takes time. On the bright side, people have had time to observe, and to watch the leader's descent into madness, more so every day. And then wonder --- since the leader is usually a projection of the hidden vile desires of the member, what happens when the leader falls apart, starts losing, and losing, and losing?

There was an interesting post, which summarizes like I find hard to do, in a brief way.

Leaving a Cult
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100215498762

[Basso8vb]

26. No, he's not.

[Rstrstx]

27. There is another thread on GD about this so-called narrowing gap

It’s basically coming from right-leaning pollsters. They did the same shit in 2022.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219534469

[betsuni]

30. Reich must finally be beginning to realize he was wrong about Trump voters, there was NEVER any chance that

Left and Right populists had anything in common about policy, working class solidarity, that Trump voters suffered from imaginary "economic anxiety" caused by Democrats and were secretly socialists, that "a new party could unite the disaffected and anti-establishment elements of both major parties and give voice to 90% of Americans who have been losing ground.'"

Finally!