Gut Check - How confident are you about our chances in November?

[LonePirate]

With regard to the Harris/Walz presidential ticket, how do you feel with regard to their chances to win at least 270 Electoral College votes?

I love our candidates and I was very confident a couple of weeks ago but things seem different now as the MAGA horde seems to be increasing in size.

208 votes, 2 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Very confident we will win
	89 (43%)
	Somewhat confident we will win
	76 (37%)
	Not sure what to think
	36 (17%)
	Not very confident as things seem bad
	6 (3%)
	No confidence whatsoever as things look bleak
	1 (0%)
	2 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[Walleye]

1. Not giving up, not going back!

[CrispyQ]

2. I vacillate between "we're gonna stomp his orange ass' to 'we're gonna squeak by.'

We're definitely gonna stomp him on the popular vote. I predict Harris will get more votes than Biden did, & Trump will get fewer votes than he got in 2020. Electorally? IDK. Supposedly her own internal polls show it's close in swing states I wouldn't have thought would be this close.

[Arthur_Frain]

20. Yeah, this is me.

On a good day I see the GE scalding his ass for ten million votes (it should be more than twice that), then I drive through a certain section of town and I wonder if all is lost.

Trying to tell myself they’re a noisy few.

[WarGamer]

3. I'm somewhere between toss-up and late night victory without a concession speech until 2 days later.

[DeepWinter]

24. Same exact spot

Regardless of polls and cheerleaders, I know it's going to be tight.

[BannonsLiver]

4. So confident I'm already preparing the crow I'm going to serve up.

There will be plenty for everyone.

[NameAlreadyTaken]

5. It's all about turnout.

[FarPoint]

6. Democrats win the Presidency, House and Senate

The battle will be post election deniers and again, claims of a stolen election....This will possibly have some violence attached to it ..... but Democrats will prevail...

[rso]

32. RSO

Agree on the Presidency and the House, but not optimistic on the Senate.

[servermsh]

7. I'm waiting to see if there are any late trends, but I feel OK at the moment

What I don't like is that for the past two and a half weeks, Trump/Vance have done something like three times as many speeches as Harris/Walz. I want to see more rallies.

[Rocknation]

8. I'm more convinced than ever that we'll see a replay of 2020

Last edited Sat Oct 26, 2024, 01:31 AM - Edit history (2)

with votes coming in from first-timers, youngsters, independents, the formerly apathetic, mortified moderates, embarrassed evangelicals, and especially ex-MAGAts who the pollsters haven't been able to "count" on.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=18540373


Rocknation

[Initech]

9. I am somewhat confident.

I am getting really sick of seeing a million polls and Trump's stupid ugly face on every single social media post. I am seriously thinking of taking a break from it until the election is over.

[Prairie Gates]

10. Amazed at the "Very Confident"

Honestly, I need y'all's energy in my life.

[Self Esteem]

12. I'm not. A few weeks ago, nearly half the forum who voted said she'd win by Bill Clinton margins.

I love the confidence but it's not happening lol

[Prairie Gates]

13. Jeez, guy

You can't even let one thing be.

Fuck's sake.

[BannonsLiver]

18. +10000

[Self Esteem]

40. No. I think this place is setting itself up a really bad election night.

It's not fun watching a train barrel down on someone and when you warn them, you're attacked for it.

The amount of people who think this election is going to be a blowout amazes me and yes, worries me because I don't think they're mentally prepared for what is likely to come: multiple days of waiting for returns because of how close things will be - and yes, the real possibility Trump actually does prevail in the end.

[Prairie Gates]

44. Wooooooow

[BannonsLiver]

19. Honestly you don't seem to "love" the confidence.

[Self Esteem]

11. Less confident than a few weeks ago but still somewhat confident.

[Torchlight]

14. very damned confident

Confident enough that I'm constantly giggling at each boy who cries wolf instead of rolling my eyes at them.

[Jrose]

15. Leaning toward more confident ...and I have a strong feeling that

VP Harris will 'kick the ball high and through the net' in her October town hall that replaces the second debate with truth-dodger Djt.

[TBF]

16. Despite living in Texas, I have guarded confidence -

VP Harris is the right person at the right time - and she does not have the negatives that have dragged down some in the past. It gives me hope that some prominent republicans are putting country over party. We really need voices of the future to keep us from not only turning back the clock (womens rights etc), but also deal with very pressing problems like climate control. I am very confident we can win the popular vote, less confident on electoral college. I know Trump will try to steal it, just hope leadership is thinking about those possibilities.

[Jrose]

17. Mostly confident, especially because

VP Harris will 'kick the ball high and through the net' in her October town hall that replaces the second debate with truth-dodger Djt.

[Poiuyt]

21. I think she'll win, but I'm very nervous

I was more confident a couple of weeks ago.

[Cartoonist]

22. Republican chicanery is my only fear.

We have the votes, except on the supreme court.

[Buckeyeblue]

23. In 2000 i learned to stop being confident about elections

I think VP Harris is running a good campaign. We have the funds for a good ground game to get out the vote.

[Sympthsical]

25. Chill about it

I just don't foresee America bringing Trump back.

2016 I saw coming a mile away. Knew 2020 would come down to the wire in swing states. This time, I do think it will be close-ish in swings, but Trump is put to bed for the last time.

It could be my sense of the country is flawed in some way, but I read around in a lot of spaces and speak to all kinds of people. Just don't see it. Even Republicans feel like they're, I dunno, going through the motions? Like they know it's not happening. It almost feels like our own obsession over him is giving him more life than he would ordinarily have. I hear about the man far more in blue political spaces than red ones. It feels like they're pointedly ignoring him, knowing being anti-Harris is more productive for them than being pro-Trump.

I would genuinely be surprised by a Trump win. I'm not saying a hubristic "We got this!" situation (no 2016 repeats, please). But I'm honestly not feeling any anxiety about November. It just feels like he's done.

[Valdosta]

26. Very confident, but with a disclaimer.

The Republicans likely have something planned other than just getting out the vote.

[maxsolomon]

27. It's a coin flip - I have no idea what dipshits in 5 swing states will do.

I'm trying to not think about that fuck winning.

[Elessar Zappa]

28. Confident, though not as much as I was right after the debate.

[JT45242]

29. As long as women can vote this election, we win it all

So many women had silently had miscarriages and know...holy crap if that happened now, I might die, be sterilized, etc. because of what they have done and it will only get worse.

When my wife had a miscarriage...we were devastated. When it didn't all pass within a couple of days. They scheduled a D&C on Friday so there was ZERO RISK of complications over the weekend. If it happened now, we would have had to wait until it was infected badly enough that her life was at immediate risk (minutes or hours, not days) before a doctor would touch her where we live now. If that means a hysterectomy, her death, whatever. Doesn't matter to the Republicans.

She is telling her story now.

If women know this could be them, their, sisters, their daughters, their grand daughter, niece, etc. they will not vote for any Republican for any office above local city council.

[Bayard]

30. Very confident until I read crap like this:

https://democraticunderground.com/100219553668

[edhopper]

31. Win the popular vote

The election however???

[BWdem4life]

33. My gut has been wrong before

(2004, until I saw the last Ohio polls and realized the fix was in.) Wanted Kerry to pick Clark for VP.

It has also been right:

2000, 2016 (my gut said it could go either way). Both times I didn't like the VP pick.
2008... 2012... 2020, I was confident.

So, in the past 6 elections I've been 5-1

This year I am confident, it's gonna be Kamala. Positive energy and good VP selection always wins over negative energy (plus Vance drags their ticket down).

[Ocelot II]

34. It's Schroedinger's election; we are both winning and losing. The polls don't tell us anything.

[Quiet Em]

35. I chose the somewhat option

Some days I feel very confident, other days I temper it a bit.

[Persondem]

36. I had a conversation a while back with a former chair of the NC Democratic Party

He was smart, well informed and did a great job as Party Chair for his 4 years in office. He told me that, unfortunately, white men did the best in political contests. An African American man will perform 3-5% worse that a white man. A white woman will similarly perform 3-5% worse than a white man. An African America woman will perform 6-8% worse than a white man. Americans may have gotten over some of these biases, but I have a feeling that there's still enough racism and sexism out there to make this election far closer than it should be. It should be a Blue Wave year, and I really hope that women, younger voters and disaffected Republicans turn out in huge numbers.

[Blaukraut]

42. Was there a category for orange men? n/t

[tavernier]

37. If we vote, we win.

I think we are much more motivated, so I believe our voters will be there. Not much complacency or indecision on our side, or there’s, but our numbers are bigger.

[Mz Pip]

38. Not sure what to think

I live in a dark blue dot in a blue state so comprehending Trump’s support has been an exercise in futility. Every time he opens his mouth something more despicable comes out. I do not get his appeal. I don’t see how his supporters don’t throw their hands up in disgust.

This shouldn’t be even close. Sometimes I’m optimistic, sometimes I’m pessimistic.

[kacekwl]

39. Very confident we

win the popular vote. Unfortunately that's not what matters.

[WestMichRad]

41. Note sure what to think

My fear is that all hell may break loose after the election.

[Polybius]

45. Win or lose, you may be right n/t

[Vinca]

43. I think it will be a blowout that surprises the entire country. Women have had it with Trump's shit.