Gut Check - How confident are you about our chances in November?

[LonePirate]

Ten days ago, I posted a thread asking for everyone's gut check on how they feel about our chances in November. With a little over two weeks to go, how do you feel about things now?

164 votes, 4 passes | Time left: Unlimited
	Very confident we will win
	71 (43%)
	Somewhat confident we will win
	52 (32%)
	Not sure what to think
	24 (15%)
	Not very confident as things seem bad
	12 (7%)
	No confidence whatsoever as things look bleak
	5 (3%)
	4 DU members did not wish to select any of the options provided.
Show usernames Disclaimer: This is an Internet poll

[andym]

1. The Harris campaign has to weather the storm of GOP attack ads

which are running frequently in the swing states and on social media. These likely are causing the polls to tighten. That's really the last hurdle as Trump himself is not doing much to attract voters. The GOP attack ads are their main strategy. Trump is not going to provide Kamala with an opportunity to compare the two candidates directly in a debate or interview format where both participate, because that's the best way she can overcome the barrage of negative ads.
A rephrasing of HL Mencken' famous quote applies: "no one ever lost an election underestimating the intelligence of the American voter."
That said, I think Harris should win, but it may be close again.

[lark]

2. Being negative nelly - I think we get the votes & he gets an insurrection that will be unimaginable & steals the office.

I do not trust this fascist majority supreme court to do the right thing and stop this.

OTOH - I think we could win so decisively, despite all these rotten polls being R's wet dreams, that the courts don't back the traitor.

[Polybius]

3. Somewhat confident, but less so than 10 days ago

Please post another one on November 1st.

[WarGamer]

4. How confident can one be of a coin flip?

[Polybius]

6. I think that would fall into the "Not sure what to think" category

Myself, I'm somewhat confident of a Harris victory, especially with Trump having a very bad last few days.

[WarGamer]

10. I don't like seeing national polling under a 2% lead...

But I see small but significant leads in the Blue Wall... I'd say I'm cautiously optimistic.

GOTV wins the day.

[Self Esteem]

14. The TIPP poll is concerning me.

It was +4 Harris earlier this week and it's now +2 Trump.

I don't think it's really shifted six-points in a few days but I think it can indicate momentum and if Trump has the momentum in the final two weeks of the election, it's very possible he wins.

[WarGamer]

19. Can go either way... the side that works harder wins.

[Self Esteem]

20. It can go the other way but Harris has worked way harder the last two weeks...

And polling is not indicating that her work is helping.

[WarGamer]

21. I meant the hard work on the ground...

Knocking doors, following up on the voter lists... rides to the polls, picking up ballots at homes (where legal)... stuff like that

[Self Esteem]

22. Maybe. I think Democrats out-did Trump there in 2016 and lost.

[LostOne4Ever]

5. I'm a pessimist

I’m always either proven right or pleasantly surprised.

I am PRAYING to be pleasantly surprised this time. Please any benevolent god(s) who may exist, and be listening to an anvowed agnostic like me, please let/help Harris win.

PLEASE!

[iemanja]

7. So am I

but I think Harris will pull this out.

[unblock]

8. It's complicated:

98% confident we will win the popular vote
85% confident we will win the electoral college vote (as determined by actual voters)
60% confident we will win after various Republican efforts to steal it.

[CrispyQ]

9. I have to admit I'm way more confident than i was when Biden was the candidate,

& I say that as someone who defended him in the race to the end.

It's maddening the highest office of the land is decided by a few hayseeds in swing states. If they get the EC, that will be the third time in 24 years that the dems won the popular vote but lost the race. That's 24 years of first time voters experiencing this aspect of our "democracy."

[dwayneb]

36. This is the essential weakness of our "representative democracy"

The electoral college, gerrymandering of the House, and 2 Senators per State are all designed to allow a radical minority in sparsely populated areas to control all of us. Top that off with a Supreme Court with lifetime appointments and you have the perfect storm.

[Abstractartist]

11. Stop

Gloom and doom internal poll are not a smart way to help.

It triggers stress. Why not ask if you are voting early, by mail or in person. Will you take your parents to the polls. How about.. How many on DU have kids voting in college and have you checked their status, asked if they understand the ballot and down ballot questions….

[kimbutgar]

12. There's more energy in the Harris campaign like Obama's campaign !

People who have some sense of intelligence know that the orange turd is not a good choice.

[Self Esteem]

13. Less confident than a week ago.

Still confident Harris pulls this out but I'll be real: it's close and momentum does not appear to be on her side.

[Cosmocat]

42. Hate to agree

They Rs know how to make things ugly to win.

The positive vibes when K claimed the nomination and all the inspiration from her and Walz are long gone under a relentless barrage of bullshit - OPEN BORDERS, THE ECONOMY, CRIME ... They all get on the same page and meld reality to what they want it to be.

WE see through it clearly, but so many of neighbors, friends and family don't ...

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

15. Somewhat confident! But, I was somewhat confident in 2016. So, there is a fear factor. nt

[ramedy]

16. She has been elected before.

FFS, do people here really believe that trump has GAINED voters? Has become more popular? He lost to Biden and Harris by 7 million votes. Please tell me what he has done to convince more people to vote for him? MAGAs do not constitute a majority.

The Blue tsunami is coming. Women and POC and Independent voters will make a huge difference this time.

Don’t let them convince you otherwise.

[CTyankee]

17. I've gone through my depressed view and am now very confident we will win. That Arnold Palmer schlong was what just

sealed the deal for me. He's never been crazier and getting worse each day of the campaign. OTOH, look at Kamala! She looks so fresh and healthy and ready to take on the world!

[verargert]

18. Harris/Walz - 75% of the Vote

[mvd]

23. Very confident

But scared at the same time. Any chance of us winning that is not 100% scares me.

[J_William_Ryan]

24. The EC, the capricious stupidity and ignorance of the voters...

Haven’t known what to think since 2015.

Don’t know what to think of a Republican party – and likely most of the country – having gone insane, that the likes of Trump would even be considered for any public office.

This is madness.

[Elessar Zappa]

25. Somewhat confident.

The polls worry me but anecdotally, I’m seeing much less support for Trump in my area than in 2016 or 2020.

[polichick]

26. Very confident - important not to buy into the fake polls/big lie bullshit.

[Qutzupalotl]

27. I don't think many polls are counting the newly registered voters as likely voters,

whereas in reality, they are among the most highly motivated, especially from Dobbs. Taylor Swift's endorsement alone netted hundreds of thousands of new voters, which could be decisive. So I think Harris is doing better than the poll averages reflect.

[TBF]

28. Very confident because I've had it with the gloomer/doomers - nt

[Polybius]

32. How about those of us like myself who are in the middle?

I think Harris wins in a very close race.

[TBF]

38. I can't tell anyone what to think.

I can only give my opinion.

I don't think anyone is really "in the middle" re Trump. I think you either love or hate that guy. YMMV.

[Polybius]

39. By "in the middle" I didn't mean it like that

I meant that I'm not a "gloom & doomer" or "very confident and not at all worried." I'm in the middle of those two positions. I think we'll win a close race.

[TBF]

41. Ah, I see. Thanks for clarification and I agree with that. nt

[Walleye]

29. In my mind, the odds are 50-50, misogyny and racism are a very powerful force in this country, but I'm still optimistic

[DEM1955]

30. I am upbeat and confident

when it comes right down to it, voters will choose Kamala.

No need to doom and gloom, we got this!!! We will flip red states
in a surprise outcome this November, you will see. Trump doesn't
really have the support he looks to have, all smoke and mirrors.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

31. Each passing day, I am more and more confident that Kamala will prevail! nt

[roamer65]

33. VP Harris will definitely win the popular vote.

But the EC has me worried.

I am hoping we don’t see a repeat of 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016. The country cannot handle another broken election.

[NotAPuppet]

34. Somewhat confident,

only because 2016 happened, and I never in a million years thought that Trump would win. My confidence level has taken a huge hit. Let's face it, just the fact that Trump managed to become the GOP's presidential nominee is mind blowing and scary. Considering that Republicans would do anything to get Trump elected without any scruples, makes me even more hesitant to be fully confident.

[jfz9580m]

35. Very confident

Well it should be “he” but regardless.. also rapist, indicted felon, insurrectionist etc. It is not 2016. It’s several years into the overturning of Roe v Wade. Also that incel Vance is loathed by women.

Finally, polls have been getting it wrong in election after election the world over this year. Not sure why, but their quality seems to have degraded even sans active malice.

[Happy Hoosier]

37. Wasn't an option for me.

I'm not super confident, or even a little confident. I'd call myself "cautiously optimistic." But my faith in the electorate is on very shakey ground. The fact that this election is even close is mind-blowing, and I don;t have much faith in about half the country. We need to VOTE, VOTE, VOTE!

[Polybius]

40. Interesting results

Very similar to 10 days ago, but with slightly more concern.

[Amishman]

43. Every time I look at polling and analysis, I come to a different conclusion

With two exceptions.

No matter how much I look for a new silver lining, my home state (PA) make me very very nervous.

However, GA data - especially early voting - encourages me.

As of this morning, I'm more optimistic about GA than PA.

[Polybius]

44. It's been 10 days

Can you repost another final poll? I know you did one on the 10th and 20th, so it's only fitting that you do one on the 30th.

[LonePirate]

45. Thank you! I will create one now.