This is (hopefully) the pattern in election outcomes...

[Jrose]

2016: Djt won by a nose, with the push by the E.C., when most Americans didn't know much about him, but had an illusion created by media (especially the 'Apprentice' tv show) that he was a savvy, generous and socially glamorous tycoon. The only scandal was the Access p***y grabbing brag.

2020: Djt's presidency nationally exposed him as a Muslim ban promoter; a bigot who permitted violence against and derided mostly peaceful protests against racist police brutality: a liar who denied the seriousness of Covid and recklessly refused to enforce masking and vaccines, resulting in many millions of deaths.

He then did everything, including via illegal means, to undermine the loss of his re-election, culminating in the violent attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, by his angry supporters.

2024: Djt had been indicted for numerous offenses, including Jan.6, hoarding and hiding classified documents after leaving office, assault of E.J.Carroll, business fraud and bribery, and finally, convicted on 34 felony counts and facing sentencing for the 'Stormy Daniels' payments case.

Now America has seen the unfiltered Djt. Unlike 2016, he is no longer the 'Apprentice' character or the 'swinging, charming playboy' pictured in supermarket tabloids...He is a convicted criminal, his racism and xenophobia are exponentially worse and more explicit...and his mental deterioration has become too familiar on the national stage.
Lastly, and most importantly, a young, vibrant, brilliant and experienced prosecutor has become his rival in the 2024 election.

The pattern has gone from edging a win in 2016 as an illusive playboy/tycoon ... to a bumbling, racist fraud in 2024 who -- if an overwhelming majority of women, people of color and new voters choose Harris -- will lose this election and finally face the fate he is due.

[Metaphorical]

1. Other patterns

* Age became a major factor in the primaries, something that Trump tried to exploit, only to have it explode in his face when Biden stepped down in favor of Harris as the candidate.
* In 2016, Clinton spent much of her time trying to thread her way through a minefield of her own, and there was a much more relentless stream of bad news against her, much of it from the GOP, but some of it of her own making. So far, Kamala has run her campaign flawlessly.
* Enthusiasm. Biden came into office because people had enough of Trump, but even then there were concerns about his age, and his crowds were respectable but not stunning. Kamala is rockstar quality, even as Trump is having trouble keeping even his ardent followers showing up - he's like a show that should have been cancelled after four seasons but has now gone on for eight, but that nobody watches anymore. (Question: when was the last time most people even SAW the Apprentice?).

It's getting harder and harder to see a legitimate Trump win here, even at the EC level. He could still do it, but I'm seeing far fewer indicators that he will.