Larry Sabato's Center for Politics forecasts a Harris victory!!

[Wanderlust988]

Conclusions

This current citizen forecast points to a Harris victory in November. How confident can we be in this forecast? Fortunately, we have solid baseline data on the accuracy of voter expectations from past US presidential elections. In the American National Elections Survey (ANES), they have regularly posed the question, “who do you think will win the coming election?” These responses have been shown to reliably forecast the winner. For example, one of us (Michael Lewis-Beck) and Charles Tien demonstrated that the majority of voters (on average 71%) surveyed accurately forecast the winner, and in the aggregate called 9 of 11 elections (1956-1996). (Moreover, the median ANES interview date was Oct. 7, quite close to our dates for Wave 4). In our other recent work, from 2000-2020, voters still seem able to do a good job forecasting U.S. presidential elections, with voters correctly forecasting the winner 66% of the time.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/citizen-forecasting-of-the-2024-presidential-election-last-soundings/

[Tweedy]

1. Awesome!

[Dock_Yard]

2. I'll take it, but ...

That old disclaimer,

"past results are not necessarily an indication of future performance"

I'm staying optimistic, but I cannot wait for Nov 5 to be over and for all states to be fully counted.

[TwilightZone]

3. It's a citizen forecast.

It's based on polls indicating who the people polled believe will win, not Sabato's prediction.

They'll probably make an official prediction closer to election day.

Here's the one from 2020:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/21320/

[Playingmantis]

4. Excellent and different approach to forecasting

Well worth the read.thanks for posting this...