Kamala's winning, and it's not close

[teran]

Jason Stanford clearly articulates - with references and data - what I have been thinking, feeling and trying to articulate to people for weeks. I can't predict the future, but I trust my gut a helluva lot more than Nate Silver's.
This is a long read, but so very worth your time. Read it, save it, and read it again next time you start getting nervous.
https://open.substack.com/pub/jasonstanford/p/kamalas-winning-and-its-not-close?r=n8oyh&utm_medium=ios

[J_William_Ryan]

1. When the Constitution is amended to eliminate the EC...

Then I’ll stop being nervous about presidential elections.

[Botany]

15. There hasn't been a republican elected to President since 1988 with the majority of the vote.

Btw Russia is now sending out posts to social media sites that say something to
the effect, “Want to get rid of the electoral college? Vote for Jill Stein.”

3 things that need to be done:

1) Eliminate the E.C.
B) shorten the campaigns …. Presidential 6 months max other races 4 months max
iii) get rid of electronic voting machines

Set up a cabinet position… department of nice … coach Tim in charge …. He likes dogs.
and stops and gets doggy kisses.

[mjvpi]

22. Respectfully, four things. Get rid of Citizens United.

[FreeForm73]

33. A friend used to work in the editorial dept. of the Greensburg Tribune-Review

He called when Citizen's United was passed, I told him then, not good, we are now on the way to fascism. Of course, my response was pooh-poohed, but as each step was taken that way, I made sure to remind him of my original statement.
He passed a few years back, but it would be interesting to hear his take now.

[mjvpi]

66. I live in Montana. Anytime that I engage a MAGA, I always start with getting money out of politics.

Bingo. We agree on something. Dark Money s a really good documentary on our ex-governor’s , then Attorney General, Steve Bullock’s fight against dark money. He takes a case that was about Republican on Republican dirty tricks in a primary all the way to the Supreme Court. I agree with you about the systemic consequences of that decision.

[rubbersole]

56. Expand the Supreme Court.

Quickly.

[mjvpi]

64. I'd put DC and Puerto Rico statehood in the mix

[Tweedy]

57. IMHO Citizens United should go first

We should do it by constitutional amendment.
We should be bold and declare (the obvious) corporations are not people.

If we get that done, much more will immediately become achievable.

[Gore1FL]

24. George W. Bush pulled it off in 2004

Bush 62,040,610 (50.7%)
Kerry 59,028,444 (48.3%)

[paleotn]

27. That was the last time. They've not come anywhere close since.

In fact, it's getting worse for them every cycle. The trend is in our favor. The high water mark for Republicans in the modern era was Reagan in 84 / Tricky in 72. Trump got a lower % of the vote in 16 and 20 than Romney got in 12.

[Polybius]

37. "Trump got a lower % of the vote in 16 and 20 than Romney got in 12."

True for 2020 but false for 2016. Trump lost the Popular Vote that year by 2.1%. Romney lost by 3.9% in 2012.

[paleotn]

61. In % point variance between winner and loser, yes. In %'s of the total vote, no.

Romney, 47.2% of total vote in 2012. Trump, 46.1% in 2016, 46.9% in 2020. Closer last time, but still shy of Romney.

[Polybius]

69. Combined Third Parties were really strong in 2016, combining for 5.7% of the vote (the most since 1996)

2012 was normal, Third Parties got 1.7% of the vote. I expect even less this time around.

[COL Mustard]

53. And yet here we are

Ten days or so before the election, and I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m very nervous about what might happen.

[Botany]

49. w wouldn't have been in the 2004 election if not for the cheating in the 2000 election and I would

be dubious to the 2004 #s. That was some straight up nasty ass shit.

In Miami County (Ohio ) they loaded something like 20,000 new votes @ 10:30PM … 3 hours after
the close of voting and those “new votes” came in @ exactly the same % breakdowns as
the existing returns … even 2 points to the right of the decimal point.

[valleyrogue]

55. That was highly debatable because of the shenanigans in Ohio and Florida. n/t

[Sparkly]

63. Q: Were those results verified? A: No. They couldn't be.

In important states and precincts, the voting machinery had no way to audit for accuracy, because there was no "paper trail." What can you test against if it's fully electronic, from the vote-casting through the tabulators?

Many bizarre statistical anomalies - or "irregularities" - were reported between exit polls and tabulated results, only as sharp outliers when things around them seemed normal. The states that year were Ohio, and as I recall, New Mexico.

Since then, the ability to check paper ballots has made a huge difference. Republicans suddenly have fits about "fraud" -- because it's harder for THEM to commit it!!

[Gore1FL]

67. I'm going with what is recognized in the history books. nt

[Upthevibe]

29. Botany ..................

Bush won the popular vote in 2004:

Bush
62,040,610 50.7%

Kerry
59,028,444 48.3%

Source: The American Presidency Project

https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/2004

[Botany]

52. See post 49.

Botany = As per skilz…. How it got there I don’t know

[Karma13612]

44. I would add #4

All primaries happen on the same day so EVERY PRIMARY VOTE COUNTS. Everyone has a say. No more candidates dropping out before your own state has their primary. I hated that I couldn’t vote for Elizabeth Warren in the primaries back in 2020.

I like your numbering scheme! You gave all the various list number options a chance! 👍😀

[angrychair]

16. Until we control

More state legislatures it would be incredibly foolish to call a constitutional convention.
Republicans would front load it with their wish list and there would be nothing we could do to stop them. Everything from repealing the 19th amendment to an amendment against gay and mixed marriage would be passed and Democrats would not have the votes to stop it

[JHB]

62. I believe the OP was talking about an amendment, not a convention

I agree, a convention would be foolish. Various billionaires (notably the Kochs) and multimillionaires have long-term organized efforts to have a new convention and what to do in it. With an existing game plan and a mountain of resources, there's much too great a chance they could effectively take control of a constitutional convention. Who needs Project 2025 when they can enact a modern equivalent of the Confederate Constitution?

[Beachnutt]

36. I had the same gut feeling when Hilliary ran

I was so sure that I bet $100.00 on her to win.
I hope it doesn't happen again.

[Scrivener7]

2. We'll know soon.

[Elessar Zappa]

3. That's a very encouraging take.

I implore everyone to read it.

[Dennis Donovan]

4. "Nate Silver has fallen"

/snip/
Nate Silver has fallen.

Nate Silver was treated as a prophet for another two presidential elections, but thus corrupted, we invited more corruption. First came Donald Trump, who began a reordering of political coalitions that polling wasn’t designed to measure. Polls were built to fight the last war, not detect an insurgency in 2016 or the chaos of 2020. Then, after Dobbs, the dials swung left, and Trump’s partisans discovered they could game the system by flooding aggregators with what Simon Rosenberg dubbed “red wave polls.” These bad-faith polls goosed support for Republicans, but that support never showed up to vote in 2022.

Polling is broken, and yet the experts in the news media tap the dials, knowing something is off but reporting it anyway as if corrupted data were verifiable news. This creates a funhouse mirror experience for the last remaining consumers of mainstream news. As Frank Spring, who’s been on a bit of a rant lately about polling on his Substack, told me, “CNN’s Harry Enten is out here telling us that there’s just no conceivable way to read this election as anything other than 50-50, but also that it’s extremely likely that it will be decided by a landslide.”

The corruption has come full circle and claimed it’s Dr. Frankenstein. Nate Silver has fallen:


Frank Spring: “I would throw myself in the sea before I wrote such a thing or permitted it to be published in my newspaper”

/snip

[ificandream]

19. I read the Nate Silver piece and I just shook my head.

It really didn't make much sense to me. He seemed to be trying to justify something he couldn't justify.

[paleotn]

35. In short...

he fucked up and wont admit it. I guess he can't accept the fact that political polling is simply not an exact science. No where close. Anyone who's ever built statistical models attempting to measure much less predict human behavior knows this if they're honest with themselves. Silver's ego apparently won't allow that.

[ificandream]

71. I tend to agree with you.

All this cycle, I haven't paid as much attention to polls as the pundits would like. They screwed us in 2016. My feeling goes along with the substack piece I read yesterday that mentioned that Gen. Z voters aren't getting the attention (or the credit) they deserve. I think they'll be the ones who take a big role in deciding this one.

[spooky3]

54. He is now paid by Peter Thiel. Nt

[liberal N proud]

5. It's refreshing and helps the anxiety

A little. pray they are correct.

[RandomNumbers]

6. I'll believe it when PA is called for Harris on the evening of Nov. 5th

or relatively early on Nov. 6th.

That's the "not close" that we really need.

[oldsoftie]

51. YES! And maybe GA? Which may take longer

since the law doesnt allow early counting of mail ins.

[MistakenLamb]

7. If i was any campaign 9 days out id want to be the Harris campaign

Kamala is closing strong on enthusiasm, messaging and outreach including 1.2 million doors in battleground states yesterday

[Beartracks]

8. "all kinds of white people, both Anglos and Saxons..."

LOL

===================

[tinrobot]

9. "Basket of adorables"

What a great way to describe Gen Z

There are other major parts of Kamala’s new Democratic-led coalition of the winning—a basket of adorables if you will. Gen Z is wildly in her camp;

[Beartracks]

10. Republican for Kamala sign...

(from the article):



================

[Rocknation]

20. Yes, it's the non-MAGA Republican vote that's going to put us over

We owe Thomas Matthew Crooks' martyrdom a gargantuan debt of gratitude -- if not sainthood.


Rocknation

[Mr.Bill]

42. I read every word of this,

and it was worthwhile and very encouraging.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. I recommend reading the article. Thanks for posting. . . . . nt

[surfered]

12. Trump canceling events and holding an inexplicable rally at Madison Square Garden

Indicates he has smelled the coffee and is giving up, possibly saving campaign cash for his upcoming legal fees.

[BaronChocula]

47. He should save that cash for cigarettes

if everything I learned from old prison movies is true.

[ananda]

14. This is what struck me, regarding independent men:

These are voters wanting a break from status quo, who don’t like the economy (even though they are doing well), and think the country is moving in the wrong direction. They should be inclined to punish the incumbent, which Kamala technically is. Except she isn’t. The greatest trick Kamala has pulled—perhaps the greatest in modern history—was to turn Trump into the incumbent and the Trump era into the status quo that she promises to move on from.


Now that was interesting and enlightening.

Greatest campaign ever!!!

[ificandream]

17. What a great analysis ....

The power of young voters who won't be voting for Trump has been hugely underestimated (if mentioned at all) by pundits. I think it'll hit Trump squarely in the mouth.

[PatrickforB]

18. This is an absolutely excellent article! I have a feeling of inevitability after Dobbs, and believe Harris will

not only win, but carry the House and Senate too in a Democratic mandate.

[BluRay76]

21. Thanks for sharing this!

Good read, and a thoughtful analysis. I have enough situational anxiety that I won’t fully relax until she’s taking the oath of office, but when I can look past the anxiety and try to think rationally about the state of the country, this assessment of the state of the race makes sense to me. I have mostly lived in states where the race wasn’t close, and even my swing state years were spent in an urban, solidly blue region. Plus, I have been known to watch MSNBC from the end of the workday until it’s time for bed. All of this is to say that I don’t have a good feel for the priorities and mindset of most swing-state voters who don’t tune into politics until October. I appreciate all of the anecdotes and the visual evidence of pro-Harris enthusiasm - I was so excited for Hillary in 2016 and the election returns crushed me that year, but analyses like this, where the contrasts between then and now are clearly presented, are a balm for my soul.

[GoodRaisin]

23. I believe two factors put Kamala over the top.

1. Women
2. Ground game. We have one, Trump doesn’t.

I don’t see Trump overcoming that combination.

[Abstractartist]

25. I believe

I believe this may be correct. Trump said as much as he was paying for fake GOP polls on Joe Rogan podcast.

[WarGamer]

26. In 9 days... the author of the linked piece will be a hero or a zero.

[RandySF]

28. Hillary will win an electoral college landslide

Me at this time in 2016.

[Upthevibe]

34. RandySF........

I think that was what many people thought......

[Polybius]

38. After Comey, you still thought it would be a landslide?

I thought Trump would do much better than expected, losing a fairly close race. Maybe Hillary with 290 EV's.

[iemanja]

30. Kamala doesn't think so

and she would know. She has access to data the rest of us don't.

[teran]

39. I believe she does think so

Her last few big speeches have made a remarkable shift from "we are the underdog" to "we are going to win" (sentiments, not direct quotes). I have no access to her campaign's internal polling, but I have watched the kind of disciplined campaign they are running. They are reaching out everywhere, to everyone, all the time. They have no intention of leaving out a state either because they think they already have it in the bag (see: Hillary, Michigan, 2016) or because they think it is unwinnable (see: Kamala, TEXAS, two days ago). They are making a direct appeal to every single eligible voter, in every corner of the country and they are not foolish enough to stop and coast now.
The larger margin Harris-Walz wins by - popular vote AND electoral college - the more difficult it will be for whatever post-election fuckery the Rs have planned to get a toehold.
AND... they are already planning for post-election fuckery! They are already winning court cases to make sure the votes get counted.
Just because they aren't telling all of us that it's okay, go open a beer and put your feet up doesn't mean that they don't see what is described above. But why win by 10 when you can win by 50?

[iemanja]

43. We'll see on election night

I myself don't see the point of this kind of wishful thinking. As long as we win, I'm happy. I don't need to pretend it's going to be a blow out when the data indicates otherwise. I don't need or want to be coddled. I just want a win.

[Blue Owl]

31. The M$M ass-kissers are trying to coddle their fat fuck felon

They seem afraid of upsetting the make-up wearing, flabby, doll-handed man-baby

[Turbineguy]

32. So it may turn out that the U.S. has fewer idiots than we thought?

That would be nice.

[phylny]

40. Great read, thanks! I shared it with friends.

[skylucy]

41. Great article!

[Wild blueberry]

45. Excellent piece, thank you!

Whole thing is well worth reading. May it be so.
Thank you.

[BaronChocula]

46. He seems to have a good grip on some facts except

he poo-poos the polls and then proves his thesis with poll data.

He does point out what I've felt all along, mainly,
1. Dobbs would be a mover for Democrats.
2. You can't win when you lose members of your own party to the opponent which is what's happening to the rapist.

[Metaphorical]

48. I think Trump has already begun implementing Plan C

Winning outright (popular vote) was never in the cards. Winning the EC was the goal, and it was, with a lot of hook and crook, achievable, but its also being undone almost faster than he can subvert the system because people are EXPECTING him to do this. A good magic trick is only effective if people don't know how it was done (and usually involved a lot of preparation), and he's become too predictable.

What he's trying to do as Plan C is to challenge the legitimacy of the election process. Even here, he's being checked because he's tried this before.

I think Harris will win. I HOPE that Harris will win by enough that it removes even the chance that he can challenge the results, but I'm also being realistic here.

[oldsoftie]

50. Dont know who Stanford is but this confidence is misplaced.

Even though I know people who fit much of the criteria he mentions, I still think this is a close race because of the idiocy of many voters who SHOULD be smart enough to see thru trumps BS but still back him.
Swing states are close!!

[peggysue2]

58. This is a great pick-me-up for . . .

Anyone losing sleep, anxious or depressed about current polling.

We're going to win this thing. And we could win it by impressive numbers.

Kamala Harris has been a great candidate. She has a stellar ground game. And President Biden, who put this into motion with a significant personal and political sacrifice, is right on the money:

She's going to make a Great President!

[LAS14]

59. Thanks for this. nt

[G_KIA]

60. Good analysis.

Had not seen this. Thank you for posting it.

[Emile]

65. I have already started calling her MADAM PRESIDENT!

[DownriverDem]

68. Good Read

The logic and points made have given me hope.

[BobTheSubgenius]

70. I'm sure that this must have come up again in discussions here, but I missed it, if it did.

The media is heavily invested in having a horse race. A runaway win by either side is nowhere near as "interesting." Another way of saying it wouldn't be clickbait.