Simon Rosenberg on the polls two minutes ago

[senseandsensibility]

Just went to 538 and 4 most recent polls are red wave pollsters. Their working of the polling averages continues, sending a signal to all of us, everyday, they don't think Trump is winning the election.

I also read that Nate Silver is "hedging" now and saying that there is a probability of Kamala winning.

IMO, the non red wave polling average shows Kamala ahead nationally and in the swing states. Of course it is close, but I think the cult handed us a huge gift yesterday for the closing days of the campaign!

[Walleye]

1. Trump knows it was a mistake. Watch out he'll promise statehood to Puerto Rico To buy his way out of this

[2naSalit]

4. It won't work...

Most everyone is hip to the stench on his shit.

They still think we're stupid.

[wiggs]

6. would be 'on brand'. nt

[Cirsium]

9. Paper towels

He'll promise more paper towels. It will be called the Paper Towel Advantage Plan.

[Walleye]

12. 😄

Gotta laugh to keep from crying

[Cirsium]

13. Thanks

Hey, we actually broiled some Walleye last night, it so happens.

[Walleye]

19. Sounds good

[Wiz Imp]

26. Wouldn't work. There are a significant number of Puerto Ricans who don't want statehood.

[Best_man23]

28. As KO and others put it, "ALL the masks came off yesterday"

Anyone who votes for the Convicted Felon and his "movement" know what they're buying at this point.

I've been warning a lot of them that if the Convicted Felon wins, the day WILL come when his goons come for their guns, because dictators, autocrats, and oligarchs have ZERO need or interest for an armed population. I've said when that day comes and they are handing their guns in, they need to repeat SIX WORDS to themselves:

I.
Voted.
For.
This.
To.
Happen.

[LauraInLA]

62. Not sure that would help. They've held at least one referendum there, and statehood failed at the ballot box.

[durablend]

2. Nate is hedging?

You mean Thiel pulled his arm out of Nate's ass?

[senseandsensibility]

3. People on twitter are saying that he still needs to maintain some credibility

so he is hedging. If he doesn't at least appear open to reason on occasion, his grift might end.

[PAMod]

33. Silver & RCP always run towards reality in the closing days

Keeps them viable going forward.

[vanlassie]

8. Nate needs another check.

[2naSalit]

5. Pendejo's...

Closing argument: "Don't vote for me! I promise to fuck up everything."

[Scruffy1]

7. More like Pinche Pendejos n/t

[PortTack]

10. Nate Silver is a shill. Fired from 538 he now works for peter theil ...any questions?

[Farmer-Rick]

38. Oh, I had no idea they didn't renew his contract.

A friend I know use to be assistant art director at one of Disney's spin offs. He recently was laid off too.

That's the trouble with mergers and monopolies. They always "consolidate" their labor and staffing frequently cutting the number of jobs in half.

[PortTack]

60. He was fired because of his bias work on the polls

[Farmer-Rick]

71. No doubt

In Nate's case it was all about bad performance.

[riversedge]

53. I am behind with much news. I did not know this.

[tinrobot]

11. Those polls don't even reflect yesterday's sh*tshow

Expect the gap to widen in the next week.

[senseandsensibility]

14. Yup

Good point!

[et tu]

17. that's our october surprise!!! nt

[wordstroken]

40. Absolutely!!

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

61. Especially on Tuesday

[BigDemVoter]

15. We could bemoan the entire affair, as it was certainly disgusting. . .

But those awful Nazis may have done us the biggest favor they possibly could have done by just being themselves!

[JohnnyRingo]

16. Wall Street thinks he can win.

His stock (DJT) gained 25% today on news of his rally at MSG. They're hoping that if he does win, he'll make sure his own stock (and the people who hold it) will surpass expectations. Like it or not, this is a form of a poll unless this many investors are clueless.

I would love to join in the early victory party, but our work lies ahead yet.
I'm worried and only hope our GOTV efforts are enough.

[Wiz Imp]

25. If this is a form of a poll, then this pollster is worse and more biased than Rasmussen.

Absolutely no sane person could have watched that fiasco last night (Or even just seen clips from or heard about it) and come away from it more confident in a Trump victory.

[JohnnyRingo]

55. I agree and I remain hopeful.

My heart sank when I saw this and the lead story that accompanies the chart. It credits his performance at the very rally we feel was toxic.
I'm also disheartened by people in my community, one that used to be a union stronghold. It seems every day I see someone I know who fell into the cult. Friends on Facebook are posting memes that if anyone is voting Harris, they should unfriend them now. Here on DU Harris is winning in a landslide, but I'm not going into shock if she loses. We must prepare for a new era. Never give in.

I feel the country is severely diseased. Wall street investors aren't cultists, partisans, or lunatics. They know money.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/djt-stock-skyrockets-following-donald-trumps-inflammatory-msg-rally-as-election-looms-163305786.html

[Wiz Imp]

57. Under normal circumstances, you might be able to look at ths as a sign for the election result

But just like the betting markets this year are obviously being manipulated to make it look like Trump is winning, I'm betting the same thing is going on here.

[Clouds Passing]

58. Wall street KNOWS how to steal! Thievery is their gameplan.

[JohnnyRingo]

65. Well let's just hope they don't cash in on this investment.

There's a risk that if Trump doesn't win, the stock could begin a slide, eventually to zero.
I don't know what they know, but investors don't put money up because they like red hats.

[Farmer-Rick]

43. It just may be foreign investment

China and Russia are probably using laundered money to feed into Trump stock. Nothing like bribing a US president with stock purchases.

[spanone]

46. watch it tank when he loses.

[JohnnyRingo]

66. ...as the story points out.

If he loses the stock will begin to slide with investors headed for the door before it gets to zero.
It's possible, but unlikely, that Wall Street investors are stupid, but they don't put money up because they're MAGA. They think there's something there.

[megapuzzler]

54. I wonder how much Musk and Thiel bought just to inflate it n/t

[rubbersole]

18. Repub commissioned polls hedging?

That can't make tsf happy. They'll end up on his "enemies within" list. He'll demand retribution...from cell block D. The MSG rally was decoration on the RNC icing that was on the 34 felonies cake....served on the Dobbs table that was readied on J6. President Harris will appoint a patriotic Attorney General. 2025 will be a great year.

[BonnieJW]

49. She should appoint Jack Smith as AG

[rubbersole]

52. The butt puckering over at the Heritage Foundation would be heard around the globe...🥺

[pat_k]

20. Add that to the fact even reputable pollsters. . .

. . .have been oversampling Trump supporters in an effort to avoid repeating the errors on 2016 and 2020. The assumption is that the dynamic that lead to underestimating trump support then are operative now. The problem is that the underlying dynamics now are completely different. The most likely scenario is that a meaningful number of voters who say they are voting for Trump just won't be able to stomach actually doing it -- something likely to become clearer in these closing days as people who are at all ambivalent about their support for trump procrastinate and ultimately either don't turn out or decide to vote third party or harris. So, pollsters are correcting in favor of trump while reality is going the other day. The spread by which Harris wins is likely to be far bigger than the under counting of trump people was in the last two cycles.

[HagathaCrispy]

21. Red wave polling???

Last edited Mon Oct 28, 2024, 06:40 PM - Edit history (1)

I don't think I understand this post but I would like to know what I missing. I know of 538 haven't heard of it in forever don't know who runs it. I don't know what Red Wave polling means. Does that mean Republican pollsters like Trafalgar or whatever are factored into the latest four polls is that what the op is saying

[reACTIONary]

39. I don't think the phrase is a standard term, but what I think it means...

... is the aggregate of those low quality and "internal polls" that are psid for or are otherwise biased towards the GOP and either border on or are propaganda.

[underpants]

51. Two fold strategy

Flood the polling averages with pro-Trump numbers to influence media AND set up the IT WAS RIGGED! thing.

[Deminpenn]

56. A few cycles ago, media began

using polling averages as a better indicator of how candidates were performing with the electorate.

to use polling averages rather individual polls. In theory, the average of all polls will smooth out the inherent biases of the data. For ex, a D leaning poll universe would cancel an R leaning poll universe. It works as long as the pollsters are credible and follow best polling practices. But since the polling averaging sites just add in each new poll with no scrutiny, if there are a lot of polls designed to be deliberately biased toward Rs, then the polling average will be
skewed.

That's what the Rs did in 2022, flooded the poll aggregator sites giving the illusion that Rs were going to win many seats in Congress. The same thing is happening now.

[Wiz Imp]

22. Do you mean state level polls? They've been doing that all month. I find it easy to ignore

Even apparently including those right wing polls, 538 show PA, MI, WI & NV as Even. 270 to win (which doesn't include all the same polls as 538) currently shows Harris leading in PA, MI & WI. (Michigan margin is over 1%)

Nationally, the 4 most recent polls on 538 are NOT all red wave pollsters.
They include TIPP which is a right wing org, but this is a tracking poll that's been going on for 2 weeks now.
YouGov/CBS - most definitely not right wing
Emerson - long term good reputation as non partisan though has seemed to lean a little right this year. Not a red wave pollster though.
Activote - I really can find no information on them
and the fifth
Tufts University Public Opinion Lab definitely not right wing

I have no idea why they haven't posted the ABC/IPSOS poll which is the best recent poll for Harris, but the ones they have posted are not all right wing.

[WSHazel]

29. Emerson is now affiliated with RCP

It is a red wave pollster now.

[tritsofme]

37. How are they affiliated? Emerson is a college...and RCP doesn't commission their own polls.

[iemanja]

30. I too wondered why they hadn't posted the ABC poll

Isn't IPSOS a reliable pollster?

[Hyper_Eye]

32. They have posted the ABC/IPSOS poll

I have no idea why they haven't posted the ABC/IPSOS poll which is the best recent poll for Harris, but the ones they have posted are not all right wing.

By default they have the polls sorted by the survey date. You have to scroll down to find the ABS/IPSOS poll. If you select the button to sort by date added then it will move towards the top.

[bucolic_frolic]

23. Reenact 1939 Nazi Rally at MSG was simply unimaginable

to sane people. But it was the creation of Stable Genius!

[kellytore]

24. 538 is garbage. They have been using Activote on most of their polling.

Activote is an opt in app and they only use 400 likely voters on most of their polls. Their margin of error is +/-5%. Why are the networks reporting anything from 538?

[ancianita]

48. Agree. We had an OP about trump paid polling by 5 Fabrizio headed poll groups that Silver counts as separate polls. BS.

Silver is packing his polling averages with trump paid pollsters under different names.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219566652

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100218248588

[liberalmuse]

27. Trump has called a presser at his slum palace tomorrow.

Wanna be he’s going to promise PR statehood? He will say anything to pull back those votes, especially lie. That being said, DC and PR should absolutely be states if that is what their residents want.

[ecstatic]

31. apparently the right wing polls are affecting trump's stock prices

Seems like fraud.

[spanone]

41. trmp told Rogan the other night he pays $500,000 for polls that say he's winning

[senseandsensibility]

42. One of many things that most people won't hear about

but it is good to hear it confirmed. I think cautious optimism is how I'm feeling.

[spanone]

44. I'm listening to James Carville just now say 'we're going to win this thing' on msnbc

No matter what you think of Carville, he's a realist. imho

[senseandsensibility]

45. What did he say?

How will we win?

[spanone]

47. He literally just said, 'We're gonna win this thing' referring to the election.

He was on with Ari Melber.

Edit to correct to his exact words.

[senseandsensibility]

50. Okay,

I heard him say something similar on Saturday. He even hinted good polls would be coming, and the ABC poll was released the next day.

[iluvtennis]

59. Come on folks...PLEASE ignore the polls. We just need to Vote and Kamala has this. n/t

[mdbl]

63. Shouldn't even be close

still a major sickness of reichwing bullshit plaguing this country.

[Renew Deal]

64. Trump complained about the polling in 2016 and 2020

Both showed him losing the popular vote and he lost it both times. It's been fairly obvious republicans were deliberately manipulating polling averages in 2022 and 2024. That's why the 2022 results were relatively bad for them.

[mercuryblues]

68. Is CACA related to MACACA?

[SouthernCal_Dem]

69. "In PA they're shutting down voting"

Oh really? Do tell....

?auto=compress&fm=pjpg

[mercuryblues]

70. IKR

Some people have no friends.