CNN: Harris leads 53%-44% among Arizonans who have already voted

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

More good news for Harris regarding her showing with early voters. According CNN, their top line is Harris is leading Trump 48%-47%. However, when they polled those who have already voted, she has a good lead considering more Republicans are voting early this time around. Currently Registered Republicans are have turned out in large numbers more than Democrats so the result is stunning to me.

Registered Party 2024 Count 2024 Perc
Democrat 462,979 35.10%
Republican 558,533 42.40%
Other 80,336 6.10%
Unaffiliated 216,435 16.40%

Their analysis of the early voting numbers is as follows.

Both states have robust early and mail-in ballot voting, and according to the poll, 55% of likely voters in Arizona and 42% in Nevada say they have already voted. In both states, more registered Republicans have cast ballots so far than registered Democrats. In Arizona, that still translates into a Harris advantage among those banked votes (53% of those who say they already voted support her compared with 44% for Trump), but in Nevada, those who’ve already voted tilt in the former president’s favor (52% Trump to 46% Harris).

Anecdotally, it seems like she is doing well with unaffiliated voters as that has to be the only way she is wiping out the Republican advantage. In addition, I think she is getting a sizeable Republican vote. Lets see how Tuesday plays out!

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/29/2280661/-CNN-Harris-leads-53-44-among-Arizonans-who-have-already-voted

[getagrip_already]

1. This happened in 2022 in nevada also

Ralston was clutching his pearls that dems hadnt banked enough ballots, but in the last 2 or 3 days enough dems voted to bring us home to victory.

Just sayin.....

[Teacher of the Year]

9. Thanks.

I needed to read that.

[wryter2000]

2. Nice tie they have going there

[AZJonnie]

3. I am one of the unaffiliated because I don't trust officials in this state

In retrospect now that Fontes is SoS I'd feel more secure actually registering as D vs when I first registered many years ago but I never bothered changing it from independent. Anyways I can imagine I'm not entirely alone in my paranoia. I feel like independent votes are coveted here so they'll never mess w/my registration or my ballot or the like. My vote is mailed as of yesterday AM, awaiting confirmation its rec'd and then I'll get message after sig is confirmed a day or two later. I actually really hope the election does not hinge on this state in the end. I'd also add I live in a very red area (there's an LDS church a 3 minute walk from my house) but in my subdivision which I walk around in often, I've only seen one house festooned with Trump regalia. And my house has a Harris/Walz sign in the front window. Our two are like the only ones out of about 100 in the neighborhood I've seen w/ANY political signs.

[Johnny2X2X]

4. This is incredible

I don't think people fully appreciate these numbers and what they mean, they mean a landslide for Harris if they're true.

They would mean she is very close to 100% of Dems and basically sweeping others and unaffiliated, but more likely dominating those while winning tens of thousands of Republican votes.

[lees1975]

5. I'm not great at math, but I picked up the calculator and figured

to get to 55% of the total she'd have to be getting more than 10% of the GOP vote if she were getting 65% of the unaffiliated. So she's either doing extremely well among independent voters, or she is picking up one in ten GOP voters, which would indeed lead to a landslide in Arizona. And it is very likely she's getting more than 10% of the GOP vote.

[Tribetime]

6. I think the polling models will way underestimate women

And the youth vote. It looks like Harris is getting a good percentage of Republicans also...BLUE WAVE

[Rocknation]

7. Verrrry Interesting -- Dovetails perfectly into something I came across yesterday

A (10/21/24) USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll shows...(Harris) leading (Trump) by 63%-34%...among those who have already voted.

In July, I spoke of Trump's first attempted assassin "liberating" Republicans from mandatory blind loyalty to MAGA. If enough of them have decided to vote for Harris, then she's in like Flynn!

More

Rocknation

[WSHazel]

8. Promising so far. Long way to go

I think a lot of Democratic voters are getting kicked out of the "likely voter" screens, and I also think Pollsters are forcing their samples to match up with turnout models based on 2020 that will not be repeated this year.

Harris is up 9 points with early voters, with probably over half the vote in already, and early voters having a Republican lean. Trump may come back, but he is getting close to drawing 2 for an inside straight.

I want to see a Georgia update on already voted. 2/3's of the vote is in already. Harris was up 9 with around 40% in. If she is even up 5 in exits with 2/3's in, it is a major uphill climb for Trump to come back.

[Prairie Gates]

10. That's not enough