When Jimmy Carter was defeated by the movie star, Ronnie Raygun, in a landslide, the polls were fairly tight until the..

[MMBeilis]

.....last week when they turned against the president. Carter entered election day knowing he was going to lose. This is where I see Trump today and it's a landslide that I'm praying for.

[Self Esteem]

1. It would be nice but polls have not budged much + there were a lot of undecided voters in 1980.

The final CBS News/NYT poll had Reagan leading 44-43. Gallup had it 46-43. ABC 45-40.

All showed a slight Reagan leading but they also had a massive amount of undecided voters.

13% in that NYT poll.

11% in that Gallup poll.

15% in that ABC News poll.

Most undecided voters went Reagan. Carter's numbers were actually pretty close to the final results. It's not that his support collapsed in the end, it was just that Reagan ate up all the undecided voters and that's why he won by a landslide.

Currently, according to the 538 averages, Harris leads 48.1 to 46.7.

That means there's only 5% undecided, nowhere near the amount we saw in 1980.

If Harris wins undecideds 60/40, she finishes at 51% to Trump's 49. That's still really tight.

She'd need for Trump's polling to collapse and tbh, there's zero evidence of that happening.

[dsc]

2. It was Anderson who collapsed

and his voters largely went to Reagan.

[H2O Man]

9. Right.

Very important point. And there were other related factors, such as Ted Kennedy's ill-advised primary challenge and poor sportsmanship after being defeated. Ted did not attempt to heal the divide in the party. One need only read Arthur Schlesinge, Jr.'s diary to be reminded that the "Kennedy wing" of the party resnted that Carter did not bow to them. Plus the attempted rescue of the hostages in Iran.

Things are very different today.

[DeepWinter]

11. Iran purposefully holding out

on hostage negotiations to influence the election hurt Jimmy a lot. Great President in a terrible position to be in.

President Carter's Presidency gets a lot of debate, but hands down, his post-Presidency work is a blue print for what can be done and achieved after your tenure is over. Absolutely amazing.

[Self Esteem]

13. Right but both Carter and Reagan were polling in the low 40s.

It wasn't like Carter's numbers collapsed. For Trump to hit the level Carter did in 1980, his numbers WILL have to collapse.

The difference is that Reagan won everyone who was undecided or leaning Anderson. Carter hit about where the polls said he would. The comparison to 1980 is not a good one for that reason only.

[ZonkerHarris]

3. undecided have been breaking for Harris at a 60%-36% rate according to recent info.

[Self Esteem]

16. Sure. But there's not nearly as many undecided voters as in 1980.

Some polls had 20% undecided in 1980.

If you go by the averages right now, according to 538, there's only 5% undecided.

Assume she wins 60/40, and the averages are right, that puts her at 51 to Trump's 48.8, which I think is probably close to where she'll end up.

But nowhere near Reagan's 1980 landslide.

[ZonkerHarris]

20. You do understand what Reagan did will never happen again right? 40 years ago. We are a different country

demographically than then.
You might as well throw in the 1920 election as an analogy too.

[Deminpenn]

23. Some, if not most, of the polls are

pushing learners. That's why you don't see a lot of undecideds in the numbers.

[BlueInPhilly]

4. What are you saying?

She'd need for Trump's polling to collapse and tbh, there's zero evidence of that happening.

Are you saying then that there is no evidence that Harris can win?

[obamanut2012]

8. And, his polling has collapsed

Once you toss out all the R herding polls that flooded the past two weeks or so.

[Self Esteem]

14. No it hasn't. Even if you look at the top polls and not the partisan, he's still polling around 47%.

Morning Consult: 47%

CBS News: 49%

NY Times/Siena: 48%

CNN: 47%

USA Today/Suffolk: 49%

Reuters/Ipsos: 46%

You can question whether those polls are accurate but they do not point to his numbers collapsing.

[ZonkerHarris]

21. I noticed all the "concerned" posts and thought to myself "Did this person just sign up here this summer?" Yup.

taking with grains of salt now.

[Self Esteem]

22. How is pointing to info showing concern?

[Self Esteem]

12. No. I am saying there's no chance Harris wins like Reagan did in 1980.

He won the popular vote by ten-points despite polls having the race one-to-two points nationally on average. The difference is that BOTH Reagan and Carter were polling in the low 40s - not the high 40s like Harris and Trump are. For a 1980-style landslide, yes, Trump's support would need to collapse compared to where it is right now. And there is no evidence of that happening. Trump will still win 46-47 or so nationally. Will that be enough to win? I don't think so but it'll be enough to keep this race close.

[obamanut2012]

7. "She'd need for Trump's polling to collapse and tbh, there's zero evidence of that happening"

Except it has.

[WarGamer]

15. the undecideds aren't 5%, you're forgetting Stein and West

[Self Esteem]

17. Then that makes my point even more valid: this isn't going to be a 1980 romp.

The dynamics are completely different than 1980, as both Carter and Reagan were polling in the low 40s. Reagan won by the size he did not because Carter's support collapsed but because Anderson's did and he won undecided voters overwhelmingly. Even if Harris wins undecided voters by a large margin, it's not likely to change the race all that much with how close it is.

The best example we're looking for is 2012: a very close popular vote polling wise, with Obama overperforming marginally and winning decently comfortably.

[WarGamer]

18. agreed...

I don't think we're 48-48 or 49-47 today...

But I do believe we'll see a breakout on election night... the winner will score 310+ EV's

[Self Esteem]

19. I am more bullish than I was a week ago.

[Johonny]

5. The future has been kind to Carter

And Reagan is mostly forgotten by his own party.

[TSExile]

10. As Kurt Bardella once said on MSNBC...

...Reagan wouldn't even win a primary today. Same for 41 and 43.

[obamanut2012]

6. Reverse 2016 imo

[lrymcqueen]

24. The polls are crap.

You heard it here first. Bookmark this. It is gonna be a Harris landslide.